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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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market news
Palm oil hits the 4115 ringgit mark, when will it need reinforcements?
Wonderful introduction:
Out of the thorns, in front of you is a broad road covered with flowers; when you climb to the top of the mountain, you will see the green mountains at your feet. In this world, if one star falls, it cannot dim the starry sky; if one flower withers, it cannot make the entire spring barren.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: Palm oil reaches the 4115 ringgit mark, when will we need reinforcements?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (November 3), the main palm oil contract of Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed at 4,115 ringgit/ton, a single-day drop of 92 ringgit, or 2.19%. The market continues to adjust under the xm-forex.combined influence of continued weakness in oil and fat futures and expectations of increased production in producing areas.
External market drag and internal supply pressure coexist
The main soybean oil contract on the Dalian xm-forex.commodity Exchange fell by 0.52% that day, and the palm oil contract fell by 1.55%, which was a significant drag on the horse market. Paramalingam Supramaniam, director of Selangor brokerage Pelindung Bestari, pointed out: "Futures prices have been dragged down by the weakness of the continuous market, while production growth continues to put pressure. But on the other hand, we see good demand creation, which will ultimately promote export improvements in November and December." This view accurately reveals the contradiction in the current market: the game between short-term supply pressure and medium-term demand potential.
The fundamentals are intertwined with long and short factors
Data from shipping survey agencies showed that Malaysian palm oil exports showed moderate growth in October. According to AmSpecAgriMalaysia, export volume increased by 4.3% month-on-month, while Intertek Testing Services data showed an increase of 5.2%. Although this gradual recovery did not form a strong pull, it provided bottom support for the market. At the same time, Statistics Indonesia announced that the total export volume of crude palm oil and refined products from January to September reached 17.58 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.62%, indicating that the export momentum of major producing countries remains stable.
The changes in the crude oil market deserve attention. OPEC+ decisionThe current production policy is scheduled to be maintained in the first quarter of next year, which alleviates concerns about oversupply and drives international oil prices higher. Strengthening crude oil has enhanced the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock, and this transmission mechanism will play a role in the medium and long term. In addition, the ringgit depreciated 0.31% against the US dollar that day, which objectively increased the purchasing power of palm oil for foreign exchange holders.
Institutional Views and Market Outlook
The current market is in a struggle between the peak period of traditional production and the recovery period of demand. The demand creation logic emphasized by Paramalingam Supramaniam of Pelindung Bestari deserves attention. The year-end holiday stocking cycle usually gradually emerges after November, which may become a key variable in reversing the current weak trend. However, in the short term, the trend of continuous oil and fat will still significantly affect market sentiment, especially the changes in the procurement rhythm of China, the main importing region.
From a more macro perspective, the vegetable oil market is being reshaped. U.S. soybean futures posted their biggest monthly gain in nearly five years in October, hitting a 15-month high, mainly due to rising expectations for purchases from China. If the strength of soybean oil can continue, it will provide indirect support for palm oil through the price xm-forex.comparison effect. However, it should be noted that the price difference relationship between different oil varieties changes with hysteresis, and its transmission effect needs time to be verified.
Generally speaking, the current palm oil market is in a stage of intense xm-forex.competition between long and short factors. Production growth and weak external markets pose short-term pressure, while demand recovery expectations, biodiesel concepts and currency factors provide potential support. Professional investors need to pay close attention to inventory changes in origin and purchasing dynamics of major importing countries. These are the key weights that can break the current balance.
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