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Super central bank has superimposed large non-farm data on the week, triggering this week's market trend

Wonderful introduction:

Without the depth of the blue sky, there can be the elegance of white clouds; without the magnificence of the sea, there can be the elegance of the stream; without the fragrance of the wilderness, there can be the emerald green of the grass. There is no seat for bystanders in life, we can always find our own position, our own light source, and our own voice.

大家好，今天XM外汇将为大家带来“【XM外汇市场分析】：超级央行周叠加大非农数据，引爆本周行行情”。 Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM foreign exchange market prospect: Super central bank superimposed large non-agricultural data on the week, triggering this week's market trends

XM forward: The importance of economic data to be released this week is from high to low: Federal Reserve interest rate resolution, non-agricultural employment report, Bank of Japan interest rate resolution, and Bank of Canada interest rate resolution. Next, we will interpret it one by one.

▲XM chart

This Thursday at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of the July interest rate resolution. Mainstream expectations believe that it will maintain the federal funds rate of 4.25~4.5%. However, U.S. President Trump has hinted that the Fed may cut interest rates this week. Last week, Trump inspected the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters building and xm-forex.communicated with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Afterwards, Trump said: "Powell gave the impression that he might be preparing to cut interest rates." Since Trump took office, he has urged Powell to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Powell always responded on the grounds that the U.S. economy is running well and does not require interest rate cuts. The results of this week's interest rate decision may be about Powell's career. If the Fed's resolution resulted in keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged, Trump may force Powell to resign on the grounds that the Fed's renovation exceeded the budget. The new Fed chairman is very likely to quickly start a rate cut, and the US dollar index will suffer a significant impact.

▲XM picture

At 20:30 this Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics Bureau will release the U.S. non-farm employment report for July, among which the new non-farm employment population data attracted the most attention. The previous value of the newly added non-agricultural employment population was 147,000, and the expected value was 110,000, which was relatively pessimistic. At 20:15 this Wednesday, the small non-agricultural ADP data will be released, with the previous value of -33,000 people, and the expected value of 78,000 people, and the expected expectation is optimistic. The expectations of large non-agricultural and small non-agricultural are inconsistent, and the final results of this non-agricultural are highly uncertain. We believe that the performance of non-agricultural data can be judged based on the performance of the US stock market. From May to July, the U.S. stock market was booming. As for July, the Dow Jones Index rose 1.83%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.62%, the S&P 500 rose 2.96%, and both the Nasdaq and S&P 50 index hit record highs. The stock market is a barometer of the economy and a barometer of the labor market. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose, which means that the non-farm employment population data in July is very likely to be higher than the previous value, which is more favorable to the US dollar index.

▲XM chart

During the Asian session this Thursday, the Bank of Japan will announce the results of its July interest rate resolution, and the mainstream expects it to maintain the 0.5% policy benchmark interest rate unchanged. The specific time point for the Bank of Japan to announce the results of the resolution is uncertain. According to past experience, it is likely to be between 10:00 and 13:00. At 14:30 on the same day, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference, focusing on his speech on monetary policy path, Japan-US trade agreement, economic data, etc. At that time, the trends of the Japanese yen and Japanese stocks will be significantly affected. From the perspective of economic data, Japan's latest core and nominal inflation rates are both 3.3%, far higher than the moderate inflation standard of 2%. Even if the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, xm-forex.commodity demand can remain strong. In addition, the yields of Japan's Treasury bond market have always been inverted in the long-term and short-term yields, which also indicates that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. Therefore, this week's Bank of Japan's interest rate decision has a certain probability of announcing another rate hike.

▲XM chart

This Wednesday at 21:45, the Bank of Canada will announce the results of its July interest rate resolution, and mainstream expectations believe that it will keep the benchmark interest rate of 2.75%. Since May 2024, the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates seven times, with a cumulative amplitude of 225 basis points, far exceeding other central banks in Europe and the United States. The current benchmark interest rate of 2.75% is close to the neutral level, and there is little room for continued interest rate cuts. In addition, the Bank of Canada has not reached a trade agreement with the United States, and the Canadian Prime Minister said that "Canada will not accept a bad agreement." If the United States is before August 1stCanada has not reached any trade agreement, and Canada may be imposed by the United States of America with up to 35%, which will seriously impact Canada's export industry. Under the influence of such a huge potential negative, the Bank of Canada will most likely not act rashly, and it is the wisest choice to remain silent in monetary policy.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

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Super central bank has superimposed large non-farm data on the week, triggering this week's market trend

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market analysis

Super central bank has superimposed large non-farm data on the week, triggering this week's market trend

Related News

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for a Reason