Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Market Review】--BTC/USD Forex Signal: Showing Signs of Bottoming
- 【XM Market Analysis】--Pairs in Focus - Gold, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, BTC/USD, Silver,
- 【XM Market Review】--EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Long-Term Lows Challenged as Fragil
- 【XM Forex】--USD/MXN Forecast: Stabilizes Amid Uncertainty
- 【XM Group】--USD/INR Monthly Forecast: December 2024
market news
Non-farm employment data put pressure on the US dollar, and the US dollar defense line collapses!
Wonderful Introduction:
Life is full of dangers and traps, but I will never be afraid anymore. I will always remember. Be a strong person. Let "strong" set sail for me and always accompany me to the other side of life.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Non-agricultural employment data puts pressure on the US dollar, and the US dollar defense line collapses!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Monday, the US dollar index hovered below the 99 mark. The weak employment data not only boosted expectations of interest rate cuts, but also put significant pressure on the US dollar. On August 1, the US dollar index fell 1.39% to close at 98.68, the largest single-day drop since April. This trading day requires attention to the monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in June and continue to pay attention to news related to the international trade situation and geopolitical situation.
Analysis of major currency trends
U.S. USD: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.82. After the non-agricultural data was released last week, the financial market responded quickly, showing a typical market dominated by "help aversion" and "loose expectations". The US dollar index fell rapidly after the data was released, with a drop of 0.42% at one point, reaching a low of 99.1899, setting a new intraday low. Technically, the 96.37 years low (July 1) becomes the next point of contention for DXY if the bears regain the upper hand. Once below, the index may attempt to move towards the February 2022 low of 95.13 (February 4), followed by the 2022 bottom of 94.62 (January 14). On the upside, the weekly top of 100.25 (August 1) became the immediate resistance level. The higher resistance level is Zhoufeng at 100.54 (May 29), followed by the 101.97 high on May 12.
1. Moody's Chief Economist: The US economy is on the brink of recession
Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned after a series of weak economic data released last week that the US economy is on the brink of recession. The latest indicators show that the economy is stagnating, consumer spending has stagnated, construction and manufacturing industries are shrinking, and employment is expected to weaken. At the same time, high inflation further xm-forex.complicates the possible policy support from the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate remains low, but mainly because labor force growth has stagnated, the number of immigrant labor force has decreased, and labor participation rate has declined. The current job market is undergoing a large-scale recruitment freeze, and the average working hoursLong-term reductions are all signals of intensifying employment pressure. He attributed a large part of the current slowdown to Washington's policy choices, where tariffs are eroding corporate profits and household purchasing power, while reduced immigration limits the overall growth potential of the economy.
2. Switzerland is willing to make concessions to the U.S. trade proposal to reduce tariffs of 39%. Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin said that in the face of Trump's announcement of import tariffs on Switzerland of up to 39%, the Swiss government is willing to readjust its trade proposals to the U.S. to find a solution. The Swiss cabinet will hold a special meeting on Monday to discuss the next response. "Time is tight, and it may be difficult to accomplish anything by August 7, but we will do everything we can to show sincerity and modify our proposals." He pointed out that Trump is concerned about the US-Rui trade deficit, which last year reached 38.5 billion Swiss francs (about 48 billion US dollars). Switzerland is considering increasing procurement of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) as one of the potential mitigation options. Another option is to encourage Swiss xm-forex.companies to further expand their investment in the United States, which is Switzerland's largest market in exports such as pharmaceuticals, watches and machinery. 3. The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates again to focus on economic growth rather than inflation. The market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates again on Thursday as tax increases and weak consumer confidence are dragging down the UK economy and prompting xm-forex.companies to slow recruitment. The market generally expects that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy xm-forex.committee will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, continuing its pace of rate cuts once a quarter. In sharp contrast to the Fed's cautious attitude of continuing to keep interest rates unchanged this time, the Bank of England chose to ignore the fastest inflation growth rate in 17 months and instead focus on the hidden worries of economic growth. Previously, Britain's GDP shrank for two consecutive quarters, and the employment market has continued to weaken since the spring. The market is still closely monitoring the central bank's plans to reduce its holdings of treasury bonds. There are signs of pressure on long-term British bond yields in recent years, and the market speculates that the Bank of England may limit the scale of active sale of Treasury bonds. 4. Fed Williams talks about labor market cooling and treats the expectation of a rate cut in September with caution
4. Fed Williams talks about labor market cooling and treats the expectation of a rate cut in September with caution
Federal official and Powell ally Williams said, "The labor market conditions I have observed in the past year can be described as a 'moderate and gradual cooling', but the overall situation is still stable." Although the unemployment rate rose only slightly to 4.2% in July (4.1% in June), relatively weak non-farm data provided room for Powell to promote a consensus on interest rate cuts. Williams pointed out that the real focus of this report was the employment growth data in May and June. "This information is crucial and helps us understand the direction of labor supply and demand, as well as the cooling trend of labor market momentum." Williams is cautious about whether a rate cut may be cut in September and has not endorsed the market's once-high 80% rate cut expectations. He said: "The challenges faced by market participants, with us asPolicy makers face the same. I think the direction of the market's response to signals is understandable. "Williams expects U.S. economic growth to slow to about 1% this year, but he believes that the economy is expected to rebound in 2026.
5. White House economist: Economic statistics agencies need a "new perspective"
According to AXIOS, senior White House economist Stephen Miran said that an important economic statistics agency needs a "new perspective", but he did not repeat President Trump's claim that there was political manipulation of Friday's employment data. Trump ordered the firing of the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, after he claimed without evidence that the disappointing employment data was "manipulated." The bureau later The Bureau of Labor Statistics also announced a sharp correction of the data, showing that the number of jobs was 258,000 fewer than previously thought. This is the second largest downward correction on the record, second only to the corrections during the pandemic. Miran said: “It is definitely time to look at this issue with a new perspective and work to find solutions that improve data reliability and reduce corrections.” The agency should try to incentivize faster feedback or postpone the release of data for a week or two, if doing so reduces the extent of subsequent corrections. ”
Institutional View
1. Deutsche Bank: Eurozone inflation is expected to be higher than ECB's expectations
xm-forex.commerzbank's VincentStamer said that in the xm-forex.coming quarters, eurozone inflation may be higher than ECB's expectations, which reduces the possibility of further interest rate cuts. He pointed out in the report that the core annual inflation rate remained at 2.3% in July, but due to the high month-on-month increase, its decline may not be as expected. "This is another reason why we think the ECB's forecast for overall inflation may be low," Stamer said, and expects overall inflation to be It will remain around 2% by the end of the year. He added that if inflation eventually exceeds the ECB’s expectations, the possibility of further interest rate cuts will be greatly reduced.
2. Dutch International Bank: The Canadian dollar may fall further
The U.S. imposes a 35% tariff on all Canadian products exported to the U.S., and the Canadian dollar fell to a 10-week low against the dollar. Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange strategist at Dutch International, said in a report that the Canadian dollar may fall further, especially as Mexico receives another moratorium extension. Pesole said: "We believe the market continues to underestimate the downside risks of the Canadian economy. The tariff statement increases the risk of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. "Dutch International Group expects that the US dollar may reach 1.40 against the Canadian dollar in the near future.
3. Mitsubishi UFL: Non-agricultural dataIf the US jobs data are strong in July, the US dollar should strengthen further, but any gains may be limited. The good news about the U.S. economy has been largely reflected in the U.S. dollar price, which rose 3.19% against a basket of currencies in July, the biggest month since April 2022. The strong dollar gain in July does show that the positive news is better digested, which will limit the dollar's room for strength today. However, if non-farm employment increases higher than expected, the possibility of a rate cut in September may be eliminated.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Non-agricultural employment data puts pressure on the US dollar, and the US dollar defense line collapses!", which was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
Only the strong know how to fight; the weak are not qualified to fail, but are born to be conquered. Step up to learn the next article!
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here