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The U.S. dollar index held near 99.50 as traders sought to balance Powell's comments with bets on rate cuts.

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Hello everyone, todayXM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM official website]: The U.S. dollar index remains near 99.50, traders are seeking a balance between Powell's statement and interest rate cut bets." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

During the European trading session on Friday (October 31), the U.S. dollar index (DXY) hovered around 99.50. The dollar exchange rate was little volatile as market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve increased and the impact of Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish xm-forex.comments was weakened.

According to the CME Group Fed Watch Tool (CMEFedWatchTool), traders currently believe that the probability of a rate cut in December is 71%. This proportion was up from 66% the day before, but down from 91% last week. Powell noted that policymakers may need to wait for the latest economic data to be released before adjusting policies due to the ongoing shutdown of the U.S. government that has disrupted the release of official data.

In the short term, analysts at ING said that the view on the U.S. dollar in the short term is more about a "lack of clear direction" than that the U.S. dollar will begin a sustained rebound. The reason is a lack of important economic data releases that would have prompted markets to make a clearer judgment on the extent to which the Fed will slow its easing policy. The U.S. dollar index lacks the momentum to break through 100.0 points. Today's PCE inflation data release may be delayed.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) foreign exchange analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong pointed out, "We still believe that the U.S. dollar will show a mild depreciation trend, but due to the lack of U.S. economic data and the lack of a clear statement from Powell, the market may firstThere have been some adjustments. The Fed's loose monetary policy and improving Sino-U.S. relations should support the yuan and other risk-hedging currencies, including the Australian dollar, while the U.S. dollar may be suppressed as a result. Of course, that may not happen unless there is a sudden and dramatic swing in stock market sentiment. ”

The Fed’s divergent decision-making indicates future uncertainty

With a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0%. This decision exposed internal differences: Governor Stephen Millan (St. ephen Miran supports a 50 basis point rate cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid prefers to keep interest rates unchanged

Powell emphasized that the central bank still faces the challenge of balancing inflation control and employment support. /p>

Trade optimism provides moderate support

President Trump and President Xi Jinping reached a consensus in their talks, and the United States agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%. China promised to limit fentanyl exports, increase U.S. soybean purchases, and relax rare earth restrictions. The measures may provide short-term relief to market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

The U.S. dollar index is currently trading around 99.50, continuing its rebound after breaking through the key downward trend line at 99.35. This breakthrough confirms the short-term bullish tone, and the 50-period exponential moving average (5). The 0-EMA) crossed above the 200-period exponential moving average (200-EMA) to provide further support, a signal often seen as a sign of a shift in momentum to the buyers.

The 4-hour chart shows the U.S. Dollar Index forming a series of higher lows, reflecting the latest moves by the Federal Reserve. Later, traders lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts, and market sentiment improved. The RSI value is 62, which is in the neutral to strong range of 50-70, and has not yet entered the overbought area (above 70), indicating that there is still room for release of bullish momentum, and there is no obvious overbought pressure in the short-term rising market.

If the momentum is maintained, the next upward target is around 100.26, followed by 100.54. This level is both an early resistance level and consistent with the overall trend line structure.

The above content is about "[XM Official Website]: The U.S. Dollar Index remains near 99.50. "Traders seek a balance between Powell's statements and interest rate cut bets." The entire content was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!

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The U.S. dollar index held near 99.50 as traders sought to balance Powell's comments with bets on rate cuts.

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

The U.S. dollar index held near 99.50 as traders sought to balance Powell's comments with bets on rate cuts.

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason