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"Conditional easing" detonates the market! The U.S. dollar is soaring, and Canadian dollar shorts are sharpening their knives?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex official website]: "Conditional easing" detonated the market! The US dollar is soaring, and the Canadian dollar shorts are sharpening their knives?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
During the European session on Friday (October 31), the US dollar against the Canadian dollar was trading above 1.4000. The exchange rate first fell and then rose this week. It once hit a low of 1.3887 in the middle of the week and then rebounded quickly. At this stage, it has basically returned to above the psychological mark of 1.4000, almost erasing the previous retracement.
On the whole, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the weakening of the Canadian dollar occur simultaneously: on the one hand, the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone has once again raised U.S. dollar yields; on the other hand, the Bank of Canada's easing coupled with the fall in oil prices has suppressed the performance of the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD showed a range-bound market structure this week, but the short-term momentum has clearly tilted towards the bull market.
Fundamentals: Monetary policy divergence + energy correction, giving USD/CAD upward momentum
The biggest macro variable this week xm-forex.comes from the repricing of monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would lower the federal funds target interest rate range to 3.75%-4%, the lowest level in nearly three years. The action itself was in line with market expectations, and the market had basically digested this rate cut. However, what really changes the exchange rate pricing is not the interest rate cut itself, but the stance after the meeting. Chairman Powell directly emphasized that a further rate cut in December is "far from a certainty", adding that there are "very clear differences of opinion" within the policy xm-forex.committee and that "no decision has been made on December" yet. This is equivalent to telling the market that easing is not automatic but depends on subsequent data. Accompanying this information, U.S. bond yields rose, the U.S. dollar strengthened simultaneously, and risky assets turned to safety. The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar quickly rebounded from around 1.3890 and stabilized above 1.4000.
Interest rate expectation data confirms this repricing process. Based on derivatives pricing, the marketThe probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December and lower the policy range to 3.50%-3.75% has dropped to 72.8% from 91.1% a week ago. The probability is still high, but it no longer has an "inevitability" narrative. This transition from "definite easing" to "conditional easing" has enhanced the relative attractiveness of the US dollar, especially in the context of the resurgence of the short-term and mid-term yield curve, and the US dollar has regained support from carry trades.
In contrast is the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada also announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday, bringing the key interest rate to 2.25%. The core logic of the official statement is: the previous continuous easing has released a considerable degree of stimulus, but it is still necessary to remain vigilant against growth risks and price pressures. Governor McCallum said that the current interest rate cutting cycle "may be nearing the end", but also emphasized that once there are "substantial changes" in the domestic economic outlook, the central bank will still "maintain the ability to respond." In other words, the Bank of Canada tried to convey to the market that "we are not releasing water without a bottom line," but the reality is that Canada's risk-free rate of return range is still a full notch lower than that of the United States. This interest rate differential structure will naturally weaken the support of the Canadian dollar in the foreign exchange market.
The second level of suppression xm-forex.comes from crude oil. The Canadian dollar has a highly positive correlation with crude oil due to the important weight of energy exports in Canada's export structure. Over the past two days, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) has retreated from last week's high of around $62.50 and is currently just above $60.00 per barrel, a weekly decline of nearly 2%. The pullback in energy prices has renewed concerns about the nominal income and trade surplus elasticity of Canada's exports, further weakening Canadian dollar buying. In contrast, the U.S. dollar has attracted inflows amid risk aversion. The superposition of the two phases has promoted the short-term upward trend of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.
In summary, the fundamentals are a typical dual push of "interest rate differentials + xm-forex.commodities": the Federal Reserve did not give an unconditional dovish signal, and U.S. yields supported the U.S. dollar; the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate hovered at a low level, and falling oil prices dragged down the Canadian dollar. The structure of one strong and one weak is the key background for the USD/CAD to remain above 1.4000.
Technical aspect: The hourly chart shows that the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is still in a strong bullish structure
From the hourly chart (60-minute K-line chart), after the US dollar against the Canadian dollar formed a stage low in the 1.3890-1.3887 area, there was a V-shaped reversal of rapid rise, with the highest impact being 1.4013. During this period, the K-line showed an upward attack of continuous positive lines, with a full entity and a short lower shadow, indicating that the bull market encountered almost no decent selling pressure during its upward movement. After this surge, although the exchange rate retreated slightly from the high, it has always remained stable above the psychological mark of 1.4000. The latest current quotation is 1.4007, indicating that this integer level has gradually transformed from the original resistance level to a support level, and has the characteristics of "resistance to support".
A horizontal key horizontal line can be seen in the chart near 1.3935. After the Federal Reserve’s decision, the exchange rateThe price broke through this level and conducted a short-term retracement test, then quickly stabilized and started to rise again. This kind of "breakthrough-backtest-upward again" price behavior is in line with the typical trend-following rising rhythm and is a xm-forex.common effective breakthrough form in the bull market. If the subsequent price continues to stand above 1.3935, then 1.3935 is expected to solidify as a periodic static support level in a larger time frame.
In terms of kinetic energy indicators, the MACD indicator showed obvious bullish resonance after the resolution. The MACD line (fast line) has crossed the signal line (slow line), and has driven the MACD histogram to turn positive and amplify, showing that short-term momentum is continuing to be released, which is a typical confirmation signal of upward momentum. Even when the price was trading sideways above 1.4000, MACD did not quickly fall back below the zero axis, but remained in the positive range, indicating that the callback was a high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal, and the trend line was still tilted towards the upward channel.
The relative strength index (RSI, 14) data shows that the indicator once rose to around 76, and has entered the conventionally defined "overbought" zone. High RSI usually means that the short-term rush is too fast, and there is a need for technical retracement or consolidation, rather than immediately continuing to rise vertically. xm-forex.combined with the fact that the price is currently trading sideways rather than continuing to surge, this period of sideways trading can be regarded as a process of "digesting overbought" with high fluctuations. As long as the subsequent RSI can moderately fall from its extreme highs, and the price does not effectively fall below the 1.3935 or even 1.4000 mark, then this kind of "time-for-space" consolidation is usually bullish for the midline trend. On the other hand, if the RSI continues to divergence, that is, the RSI weakens but the price still forcibly rises, you need to be wary of potential short-term bullish temptations.
Based on the three dimensions of price, MACD and RSI, the hourly trend of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is still pointing upward. Near 1.3935 is the first key support line, the 1.4000 integer mark is the current defensive position for bulls, and the weekly high of 1.4013 constitutes immediate resistance. Once 1.4013 is successfully broken through and stands firm, it will enter a relative vacuum zone that lacks historical transaction intensive areas, and subsequent volatility may increase again; on the contrary, if 1.4000 falls, the first technical flaw will appear in the high-level bull structure.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: "Conditional Loosening" detonates the market! The US dollar is soaring, and the Canadian dollar short sellers are sharpening their knives?" It was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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