Global crude oil supply pattern changes, non-agricultural outcry, gold prices hit a weekly high OPEC+ reaches an agreement to increase production

Basic news

On Monday (August 4, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,357.60/ounce, gold prices rose nearly 2% last Friday, setting a weekly high. The U.S. non-farm employment data was weaker than expected, boosting the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts, and new tariff announcements stimulated safe-haven demand; U.S. crude oil trading was around $66.92/barrel, and OPEC+ reached a consensus on Sunday, deciding to xm-forex.complete the original one-year production recovery plan ahead of schedule in September this year, significantly increasing the daily crude oil production by 548,000 barrels.

Stock market

U.S. stocks fell sharply last Friday, with the S&P 500 hitting its biggest single-day percentage drop in more than two months, the United States imposed new tariffs on dozens of trading partners, and the U.S. employment report unexpectedly weakened, stimulating selling pressure.

Amazon fell 8.3%, also putting pressure on the market. The xm-forex.company announced quarterly results, but its network services cloud xm-forex.computing division's performance failed to meet the market's higher expectations.

U.S. President Trump has signed an executive order to impose tariffs on imported products from Canada, Brazil, India and other places, and countries are trying to find ways to reach a better agreement.

Data shows that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July, and the reading in June was down sharply, suggesting that the labor market may begin to show cracks, further weakening people's confidence in the economic outlook. The report greatly strengthened expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates at its September meeting.

Brian Jacobs, chief economist at AnnexWealth Managementen said: "This report cannot be glorified at all. The data in the previous few months was significantly downgraded and the labor market has been stagnant. The Fed did not cut interest rates in July last year, so they made up for the cuts at subsequent meetings. They may have to do the same this year."

According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market expects the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in September is 86.5%, xm-forex.compared with just 37.7% the previous trading day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.23% to 43,588.58 points. The S&P 500 fell 1.60% to 6238.01 points. The Nasdaq fell 2.24% to 20,650.13 points.

The S&P 500 hit its biggest single-day percentage drop since May 21, while the Nasdaq hit its biggest single-day percentage drop since April 21.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 2.36%, the Nasdaq fell 2.17%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.92%.

CBOE market volatility index closed up 3.66 points to 20.38 points, the highest closing level since June 20. The indicator is called the Wall Street Panic Index.

Amazon has caused the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Index, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Index, and has caused the consumer discretionary sector to fall by nearly 3.6%, the worst performing among the 11 major sectors.

Apple fell 2.5%, and the xm-forex.company released a quarterly revenue forecast far higher than Wall Street expectations, but CEO Cook warned that U.S. tariffs would result in a quarterly increase of $1.1 billion.

After the employment report was released, Trump said he had ordered the firing of Erika L. McEntarfer, director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gold prices rose nearly 2% last Friday, hitting a weekly high, with U.S. non-farm employment data weaker than expected, boosting expectations of a Fed rate cut, and new tariff announcements stimulated demand for safe-haven.

Spot gold rose 1.8% to $3347.66 an ounce, up 2% earlier, hitting its highest level since July 25. It rose 0.4% last week. The settlement price of US gold futures rose 1.5% to $3,399.8. "Employment data is lower than expected. This increases the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates later this year," said Bart Melek, head of xm-forex.commodity strategy at TD Securities. Gold is a non-yield asset that tends to perform well in low-interest rate environments. The U.S. Department of Labor Statistics said that U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected in July, with 73,000 non-farm jobs increasing, while the revised figure increased by 14,000 under the June data.

Party participants currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year, with the first rate cut in September. Earlier this week, the Fed maintained its target interest rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%Change, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said "we have not made any decisions about September yet."

In terms of trade, Trump imposed the latest round of tariffs on products from dozens of trading partners such as Canada, Brazil, and India, causing global markets to plummet, and countries are working to reach better agreements through negotiations.

Spot silver rose 0.4% to $36.88 per ounce, platinum rose 1.2% to $1,304.91 per ounce, and palladium rose 1.4% to $1,208.05 per ounce. But all three metals fell last week. Oil market

Oil prices fell sharply last Friday as investors feared that OPEC+ could increase oil production and weaker than expected U.S. jobs report exacerbated demand concerns. Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.67 per barrel, down 2.83%. U.S. crude oil futures settlement was $67.33 per barrel, down 2.79%. Last week, Brent crude rose nearly 6%, while U.S. crude rose 6.29%.

Eight OPEC+ member states are expected to approve their oil production by up to 548,000 barrels per day in September, three sources said. Another said discussions on the scale of production increase are still underway and the final increase may be smaller.

The U.S. Department of Labor said that 73,000 new jobs were created in the United States in July, less than economists' expectations, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.

The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged last Wednesday attracted criticism from Trump and a group of Republican lawmakers.

Most of last week, oil traders were paying attention to the potential impact of U.S. tariff rates set by the U.S. for most of its trading partners will take effect this Friday.

Trump signed an executive order last Thursday to impose 10% to 41% tariffs on U.S. imported products in dozens of countries and regions that failed to reach a trade agreement by the August 1 deadline, including Canada and India.

DBS's SuvroSarkar said: "We believe that with a few exceptions, the settlement of the trade agreement can more or less satisfy the market, which is the main driver of the bullish oil prices in recent days." Last week, Trump threatened to impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russian crude oil buyers to force Russia to stop the war in Ukraine, which also supported oil prices. The move has raised concerns about the potential disturbance of oil trade flows and a decrease in supply.

Foreign market

The dollar fell against the euro and yen last Friday, marking its biggest single-day decline since April. Previous data showed that U.S. employers increased fewer jobs in July than economists expected, while job growth in June was significantly revised downward, causing traders to bet on how many times the Fed could cut interest rates this year.

Last month, employers added 73,000 new jobs, lower than the 110,000 economists surveyed by Reuters, and the unemployment rate has reached 6The month's 4.1% rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations. The new jobs in June were reduced to only 14,000 from the previous report of 147,000.

Helen Given, head of trading at MoneyUSA, Washington, said. The situation is worse than anyone expected, and the worst thing is that the data for the previous month was also downgraded. The dollar index, which measures the exchange rate of the dollar against a basket of currencies (including the Japanese yen and the euro), plummeted 1.06% to 98.97 on the day.

The euro rose 1.16% against the US dollar to $1.1547. Earlier on Friday, the euro fell to $1.1389 against the dollar, its lowest point since June 10.

The US dollar fell 2.01% against the yen to 147.7 yen. The dollar reached 150.91 yen earlier, the highest since March 28.

The Fed said it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates due to concerns that President Trump's tariff policy will rekindle inflation in the xm-forex.coming months.

Feder Chairman Powell was hawkish about the monetary policy outlook on Wednesday and refused to say that it is possible that federal funds rate futures traders have reduced their bets on how many times the Fed could cut this year after the rate cut in September.

But after the job data were released last Friday, they have once again stepped up their bets on interest rate cuts. Currently, traders priced the rate cuts by 58 basis points by the end of the year, up from about 34 basis points last Thursday, with the first rate cut expected in September.

Whether the Fed cut interest rates in September may now depend on the next August jobs report. Given said. (Powell) It did say Wednesday that we will keep interest rates stable for a longer period of time, but we will get two sets of employment data before the Fed’s next meeting. So, since the first set of data is obviously negative…the labor market is clearly cooling, which will also increase the importance of September data. "

August employment data will be released on September 5, and the Fed will meet from September 16-17. The more dovish Fed may have a negative impact on the dollar, and even after experiencing the first half of the year, the dollar seems to have found its foothold in recent weeks.

Capital Macro deputy chief market economist Jonas Goltermann said. Our forecast for the dollar to strengthen in the second half of the year is very large. It depends on our view that the U.S. economy will remain resilient and that FOMC will remain unchanged by 2026, which is clear now seems to be less likely; in the case of a recession, the dollar with lower yields such as the yen and the euro may weaken, even if the dollar may rebound against other riskier currencies. "

Earlier last Friday, the dollar rose at one point after Trump imposed new tariff rates on dozens of trading partners. The Swiss franc was hit the hardest, as Switzerland now faces a tax rate of 39%.

The Swiss franc fell against multiple currencies in response to Trump's high tariffs,And he asked the pharmaceutical xm-forex.company to lower the price of selling to American consumers.

The US dollar fell 0.76% against the Swiss franc in New York to 0.806, after hitting 0.8171, the highest since June 23.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.44% against the US dollar to 1.38 Canadian dollars, and fell back to 1.3879 Canadian dollars earlier, the weakest since May 22. Canada is subject to a 35% tariff, rather than a 25% threat.

In addition to tariffs, the US dollar has also risen against other currencies due to other factors. The yen earlier hit its biggest weekly decline this year after the Bank of Japan signaled that it was not in a hurry to resume interest rate hikes, prompting Japanese Finance Minister Katsushika Kato said last Friday that Japanese authorities were concerned about the recent exchange rate trend.

International News

Popular Options Trading Promotes Japanese Exchanges to Seek OTC Strategies Return-Enhanced ETF Listing

Major Japanese Stock Exchanges are seeking to seize growth opportunities in earnings-enhanced strategies. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, trading strategies such as "selling xm-forex.complement call options" (i.e. investors earn option fees by selling call options while holding stocks). To this end, the Tokyo Stock Exchange is planning to allow active management ETFs using over-the-counter derivatives to list. According to Kei Okazaki and RyutaroSomeya, the head of the listing department of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the exchange is seeking guidance from a consulting agency to promote the listing of ETFs using non-listed tools such as swap contracts and options. Currently, although listed ETFs can use options from the Osaka Derivatives Exchange, the use of over-the-counter derivatives is still prohibited. The Tokyo Exchange hopes to obtain approval from the Japan Financial Services Agency by June next year to enable the listing of such ETFs. They pointed out that this change will help reduce fund management costs.

The first eruption of Krashennikov volcano in about 600 years

On August 3 local time, Krashennikov volcano erupted in Russia. This is the first time the volcano erupts in about 600 years. The Kamchatka branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Unified Geophysics Agency" released a video of the volcano erupting on the same day. This is the first time that scientists have observed the volcanic eruption in modern history. The current ash eruption has reached 5,000 to 6,000 meters. Volcanic eruptions are still ongoing and eruption activities may affect low-altitude flights. The Krasheninnikov volcano belongs to the eastern volcanic belt of Kamchatka, about 13 kilometers south of Lake Kronotsky and about 200 kilometers from Petropavlovsk, Kamchatka. The last recorded magma eruption of the volcano occurred between about 1423 and 1503.

OPEC+ reached an agreement to increase production, and the global crude oil supply pattern has changed.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) reached a consensus through video conference on Sunday, deciding to xm-forex.complete the original one-year production recovery plan in advance in September this year, significantly improvingThe daily crude oil production is 548,000 barrels. The move will xm-forex.completely offset the 2.2 million bpd/dollar production cuts implemented by the organization's eight member states since 2023, of which the UAE will also receive additional production increase quotas. Another 1.66 million barrels per day of capacity will be re-evaluated before the end of the year. This decision marks the shift of the strategic focus of OPEC and its allies from maintaining oil prices to xm-forex.competing for market share. Despite the current geopolitical tension and strong seasonal demand, the decision to increase production has effectively curbed crude oil and gasoline futures prices, bringing benefits to consumers and providing support to US President Trump's energy policy. However, this move has also triggered market concerns about global crude oil supply surplus in the second half of the year. The decision to increase production confirms the preliminary agreement previously disclosed by Bloomberg. It is worth noting that as OPEC+ makes a decision, the Trump administration is putting greater pressure on Russia to threaten to impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil unless the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ends as soon as possible. This diplomatic pressure has a subtle interaction with Trump's demand for lowering oil prices, because he also hopes that the Fed can cut interest rates. It is worth noting that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak visited Saudi Arabia on Thursday to consult with Saudi Energy Minister on bilateral cooperation. As the dominant force of the OPEC+ alliance in the past decade, the interaction between the two countries will continue to affect the global energy market structure.

Member of the Russian Federal Council: The world cannot replace Russian oil supply

Alexei Pushkov, a member of the Constitutional xm-forex.committee of the Russian Federal Council, said that the world cannot replace Russian oil supply, and Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply. Pushkov wrote on his social platform: "Although Trump issued a warning to impose high secondary sanctions tariffs, Indian oil refineries are still continuing to buy Russian oil. India explained that if the global market stops receiving 9.5 million barrels of oil per day from Russia, oil prices may rise to $135-140 per barrel. In fact, it is impossible to replace such a large amount of oil supply, because Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply."

South Korea plans to cancel the medical beauty tax refund policy for foreign tourists

South Korea's medical beauty has always been popular with many foreign tourists, and many of them can enjoy a 10% VAT refund. However, the South Korean government recently decided to cancel this tax refund policy from next year. The reporter learned that in order to promote the development of the tourism industry and attract foreign tourists to South Korea to receive medical beauty, South Korea has implemented this tax refund policy since April 2016. It was originally planned to be implemented for only one year, but it has been extended many times since then. Korean industry insiders are worried that the cancellation of tax refunds may lead to a decrease in tourists xm-forex.coming to South Korea to receive medical beauty, and may also prompt some medical institutions to trade cash with customers, forming a gray area.

The latest research at Yale University: American consumers face the highest tariff rate since 1934

The latest research data from the Yale University Budget Laboratory in the United States shows that as of July 31, the average effective tariff rate imposed by the United States on imported goods reached 18.3%., the highest level since 1934. The average effective tariff rate is not a fixed value, but will be adjusted with changes in national policies, economic situations and international trade environment. The budget laboratory believes that tariff policies will lead to a decrease in the U.S. real GDP growth rate in 2025 and 2026 by 0.5 percentage points per year. At the same time, tariffs will also cause the U.S. unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025, and by the end of 2026, the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In addition, tariffs will increase the average U.S. household spending by $2,400 in 2025, of which the impact on clothing products is particularly serious. In the short term, consumers may see footwear prices rise by 40% and clothing prices rise by 38%. In the long run, footwear prices may rise by 19%, while clothing prices may rise by 17%.

Domestic News

Ton-class unmanned aircraft xm-forex.completed the material transportation of offshore platform for the first time

On August 3, China learned from China that my country's independently developed electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft above ton has achieved material transportation and flights on far-average oil platform for the first time. This breakthrough not only innovated the model of maritime material replenishment, but also marked a key step in my country's application of low-altitude logistics scenarios in sea and land. The 2-ton electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft independently developed by my country - "Kerryou", is loaded with fresh fruits and emergency medicines and other materials, and takes off from the land take-off point in Shenzhen. After 58 minutes of cross-sea flight, landed on a offshore oil and gas platform 150 kilometers away from Shenzhen's coastline, and successfully xm-forex.completed the transportation mission.

my country has become the world's largest cosmetics consumer market

Since this year, the cosmetics and fragrance industries represented by "Chinese aesthetics" are accelerating their layout in overseas markets. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, my country's exports of cosmetics products were US$1.69 billion, an increase of 14.1% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, my country's total retail sales of cosmetics was 229.1 billion yuan, setting a new high in the past five years. At the same time, the market size of my country's cosmetics industry has exceeded one trillion yuan for two consecutive years, becoming the world's largest cosmetics consumer market. It is worth noting that last year, the transaction volume of domestic brands accounted for 55.2%, surpassing international brands for the first time.

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