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What is the impact of the conclusion of the US-EU trade agreement framework? What is the response?

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: What is the impact? What is the response?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On July 27, 2025, US President Trump and European xm-forex.commission President von der Leyen reached a trade agreement framework in Turnbury, Scotland, to avoid the transatlantic trade war and inject breathing space into the global economy. The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods imported to the United States, which is lower than 30%-50% threatened by Trump. The agreement includes the EU's xm-forex.commitment to purchase US$750 billion in US energy and additional US$600 billion in investment.

The analysis noted that the protocol eased months of uncertainty, but lack of details and execution challenges sparked caution. This article deeply explores the core terms of the agreement, industry impact and responses from all walks of life, and reveals its economic and geopolitical significance.

Core Terms

The agreement framework imposes 15% tariffs on most EU goods exported to the United States (such as automobiles, semiconductors, cosmetics), higher than 1.2% before Trump took office and 10% of the "Liberation Day" plan in April 2025, but far below 30% or 50% of its threat.

Exceptions include steel and aluminum continuing to face 50% global tariffs, the EU seeking quota relief; aircraft and parts, generic drugs, semiconductor equipment, some chemicals, agricultural products and key raw materials enjoy zero tariffs. Drugs face 15% tariffs, but Trump suggests a possible hike to 200%, increasing uncertainty. Tariffs for liquors such as French wine and spirits are not yet clear and negotiations are still needed.

The EU promises to purchase US$750 billion of US energy (liquefied natural gas, oil, nuclear fuel) within three years to replace Russian supply, and additional US$600 billion of investment in the United States, involving the pharmaceutical and automotive industries. At the same time, the EU also agreed to purchase "large amounts of" U.S. military equipment and reduce the number of U.S. cars and agricultural productsnon-tariff barriers (such as value-added tax, digital tax) of products.

The agreement was reached before the August 1 deadline, avoiding Trump's 50% tariff threat and the EU's retaliatory tariffs on 100 billion euros of US goods.

However, analysts said, "Only signed is counted." The agreement is only a framework and requires approval from the European Parliament and 27 countries, facing internal coordination challenges.

Industry impact

Automobile industry

The 15% tariff has a significant impact on the EU automobile industry, with the previous tariffs being only 2.5%. Costs of German car xm-forex.companies (such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz) have risen by 12%-15%, which may raise prices and weaken U.S. market share (EU's automobile exports to the U.S. in 2024 are about US$70 billion). Cars produced by American car xm-forex.companies (such as GM and Ford) in Mexico face 25% tariffs, and their price xm-forex.competitiveness has declined.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas predicts that EU automakers' profit margins in the United States will fall by 1.5%-2%, and US automakers' market share will decrease by 1%. UBS analyst Patrick Hummel believes that EU automakers may accelerate their construction of factories in the United States, but short-term profit pressure is high.

Pharmaceutical Industry

The pharmaceutical industry is facing uncertainty, von der Leyen confirmed the 15% tariff on drugs, but Trump may raise it to 200%. Ireland's profits of drug exports to the United States (US$155 billion in 2024) may fall by 5%, and if tariffs rise sharply, the supply chain may be cut (Reuters).

Goldman Sachs analyst Chris Chabani predicts that US drug prices will rise by 4%-6%, affecting consumers who rely on EU generic drugs and exacerbate pressure on the health insurance system.

Energy Industry

The EU's $750 billion energy purchase will increase revenues of US LNG exporters (such as CheniereEnergy) by 10%-15%, but EU energy prices may rise by 7% due to US dollar settlement.

The $600 billion investment xm-forex.commitment was questioned by Breskey, with Mory Obstfield of the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that the actual additional investment was only $250 billion, and Barclays' Christian Keller warned that the EU's fiscal constraints could be delayed.

Response from all walks of life

Jan Hazius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that the 15% tariff will control the impact of global GDP at 0.2%-0.3%, far lower than 0.7%-1% of the 50% tariff.

Morgan Stanley chief economist Seth Carpenter predicts that US core PCE inflation will rise by 0.4% in 2026, with the automotive and pharmaceutical industries hitting the hardest hit. Adam Jonas suggests that American automakers increase investment in the United States to avoid tariffs.

UBS's Jonathan Pincus expects EU exports to the United States to fall by 6%, but zero tariff aircraft will increase Boeing revenue by 5%. Barclays’ Christian Keller warned that internal EU coordination could delay investment until 2026.

The Financial Times pointed out that the EU's "tariff steam" in Trump” The 15% tariff is “painful but affordable” to Germany, but drug tariff risks continue.

Bloomberg stressed that the agreement avoids “economic paralysis”, but the EU’s energy costs are rising and the U.S. geopolitical influence is strengthened.

Reuters called the agreement “an urgent relief”, but EU Trade xm-forex.commissioner Maros Sevkovic warned that France’s concerns about alcohol tariffs may delay approval.

Joan Fleck of the Atlantic Council believes that the agreement maintains NATO cooperation.

20 The 25-year U.S.-EU trade agreement framework avoids a devastating trade war and stabilizes the global economy, but the 15% tariff, uncertainty in drug tariffs and difficulty in implementing investment xm-forex.commitments pose challenges. The cost pressure of the automobile and pharmaceutical industries is significant, and EU energy purchases have enhanced the geopolitical influence of the United States.

The agreement has played a role in alleviating trade tensions, but it is vigilant about the details and the repetition of Trump's policies. The success or failure of the agreement depends on subsequent negotiations and approvals.

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