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【XM Group】--USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Lira Stabilizes Ahead of Turkey's Interest Rate Announcement
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】--USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Lira Stabilizes Ahead of Turkey's Interest Rate Announcement". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 35.49.
- Set a stop-loss order below 35.30.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 35.75.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 35.75.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 35.80.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 35.59.
This chart produced by the TradingView platform.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The Turkish Lira pair against the dollar stabilized in trading near its all-time low in early trading on Thursday morning. The pair's trading stabilized amid anticipation of the Turkish Central Bank's decision on interest rates, which is scheduled to be announced later today. Concurrently, Most estimates indicate that the interest rate will be held steady after the bank cut the interest rate by 250 basis points in the December meeting.
Previously, the Turkish Central Bank had announced new steps within the framework of its strategy to reduce the "protected deposit accounts against foreign exchange fluctuations" program, as part of the gradual shift towards more traditional economic policies. As of January 20, 2025, opening and renewing protected accounts with maturities of six and 12 months will be stopped, according to a statement by the central bank. The statement also explained that this step aims to reduce the protected deposit program, which was launched in December 2021 to support the stability of the Turkish lira and reduce dollarization. The program, which guaranteed depositors protection against exchange rate fluctuations, was criticized for its high cost and negative impact on the budget. With the government announcing a gradual reduction of the program in the summer of 2023, protected accounts have seen a continuous decline for more than 70 weeks.
Despite the decline in protected accounts, the share of the Turkish lira in total deposits increased to 58.7% at the beginning of this month, in a partial success for the central bank's strategy to enhance the role of the local currency.
Meanwhile, investors followed the statements of Raghuram Rajan, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, during an interview at the Davos Summit on global economic trends and Turkey's potential. Rajan expressed cautious optimism about the Turkish economy, noting that investments in the Middle East could open great opportunities for Turkey.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the dollar/lira pair (USD/TRY) stabilized near an all-time high of 35.64 lira on Thursday morning. The pair continued to trade within the upward price channel, while the pair faces resistance in the form of an upward trend line shown by the chart. Furthermore, the pair is expected to continue rising as it receives support by moving above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, as well as by trading the 50-day moving average on the 4-hour timeframe, which represents a strong support level. The Turkish lira price forecast indicates that the pair will continue to rise, targeting levels of 35.70 and 35.75, respectively.
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