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market analysis
【XM Market Analysis】--WTI Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Solid Trading High Followed by Reversal Lower
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--WTI Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Solid Trading High Followed by Reversal Lower". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
More buying was produced in WTI Crude Oil in the middle of this past week which saw the commodity extend gains up to the 79.350 vicinity. Trading early last week did see some incremental selling after the previous weeks of gains and sustained bullish momentum, a low on Wednesday challenged the 76.140 ratio.
This low was near the price levels WTI Crude Oil opened trading last Monday.
The upwards momentum in WTI Crude Oil which has been on display since the 20th of December has been strong. The price of the commodity was around the 68.000 ratio before the holiday season started. The buying in WTI Crude Oil has been suspicious. While narrative regarding the Russian oil ban has been heard it is questionable if this news is true regarding its effect on actual prices, particularly because it is well established Russia has been able to export rather easily to markets like China and India for a long time.
Speculative Highs in WTI Crude Oil and Coming Influences
Without any special inside knowledge of WTI Crude Oil logistics, it does appear on the surface that supply remains steady and that the buying splurge in the commodity has been affected by speculative influences the past few weeks. After reaching the 79.000 ratio last Wednesday, WTI Crude Oil struggled to stay above this level and by Friday the commodity proved the 78.000 mark was vulnerable too, as it sold off going into the weekend and closed at 77.055 USD per barrel.
Traders need to be aware that futures trading via NYMEX will be closed on Monday in the U.S because of MLK Day. Tuesday’s opening in WTI Crude Oil may prove rather interesting because speculators will be trading with the knowledge that President Trump will be in charge of the White House. Trump makes no secret of his energy policy which includes proactive U.S production. The coming change in the White House will certainly influence behavioral sentiment in WTI Crude Oil.
Choppy Near-Term Price Action as Sentiment Shifts
WTI Crude Oil speculators should be careful this coming week. Monday’s absence from the market may lead to more volume on Tuesday. It would not be surprising to hear President Trump speak about U.S energy policy during his inauguration speech on Monday, if he does touch upon the subject of Crude Oil this may cause sentiment to be ruffled and price action could display some nervousness on Tuesday.
- WTI Crude Oil is still rather high considering its mid-term price range.
- Yes, this depends on perspective, but the gains seen the past month still look rather suspicious, but it is also true that the price of an asset within a market is the reality no matter what perceptions are held.
- Betting against the bullish trend established the past handful of weeks should be done carefully and with realistic targets in mind.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 72.400 to 79.600
The ability to create bullish price momentum and a test of the 79.000 level this past week was surprising. The velocity of WTI Crude Oil higher the past few weeks has been technically efficient. The reversal lower going into the weekend managed to stay above 77.000 which is still is within the highs produced the last month of trading. Speculators need to be aware that larger players are likely participating in WTI Crude Oil with chess like moves as they prepare the groundwork for the coming Trump administration which is certain to effect values in the commodity over the long-term.
Sentiment generated early this week, starting on Tuesday should be watched and viewed via early price action. If WTI Crude Oil were to open below 77.000 USD on Tuesday and suddenly start challenging the 76.000 level below, this would be a bearish signal most likely. However, one other word of caution is offered, U.S winter weather reports look rather frigid this coming week, this could also play into speculative forces in WTI Crude Oil and cause some buying. Traders should respect the upside which has been generated recently, even if they believe the price of WTI should be lower.
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