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【XM Market Analysis】--WTI Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Finds a Strong Bottom At $66.65
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--WTI Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Finds a Strong Bottom At $66.65". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Bullish View
- Buy the WTI crude oil price and set a take-profit at $75.
- Add a stop-loss at $68.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish View
- Set a sell-stop at $70 and a take-profit at $65.35.
- Add a stop-loss at $74.
The WTI crude oil price stabilized last week even as concerns about more supplies and weak demand remain. The US benchmark rose to $71.03 on Friday, up from last week’s low of $66.65. It remains about 20% below the year-to-date high of $87.57.
Demand and Supply Mismatch
The WTI crude oil rose as concerns about oil demand rose. In a statement last week, OPEC announced that it was slashing oil demand growth for the fifth time this tear. In a report, the cartel said that oil demand will rise by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2024, down from the previous 1.45 million.
OPEC+ also slashed the 2025 demand forecast to 1.45 million barrels from the previous 1.54 million. These cuts were almost in line with those offered by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects demand growing by just 920,000 barrels a day.
The OPEC report came as Saudi Arabia announced that it would slash oil prices to boost demand.
Meanwhile, oil traders are looking at the United States, where Donald Trump has pledged to boost oil production. Such a move would lead to more supplies and lower oil prices in the long run. However, the reality is that the American president does not have too much say on oil production.
The key WTI crude data to watch will be Wednesday’s inventories. Recent data has shown that inventories dropped for three consecutive weeks, a trend that likely continued last week.
The other event that will likely drive oil prices will be the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. A dovish Fed may lead to higher oil prices.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast
The daily chart shows that the WTI crude oil bottomed at $66.65, where it failed to move several times since October 1. It has formed what looks like a triple-bottom pattern whose neckline is at $78.32. A triple-bottom is one of the most bullish patterns in the market.
Crude has also moved above the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the neutral point at 50, while the Percentage Price Oscillator, a unique type of MACD, has moved above the zero line.
Therefore, the WTI price will remain in a bullish tone as long as it is above the support at $66.65. A break below that level will increase the odds of moving below $60 soon.
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