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market analysis
【XM Group】--XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today: Following Fed Signals
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】--XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today: Following Fed Signals". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- During mid-week trading, gold futures resumed their gains as investors digested the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's latest policy meeting at the bank's last meeting in 2024.
- Spot gold prices moved to the resistance level of $2670 per ounce before stabilizing around $2664 per ounce at the time of writing this analysis.
According to gold trading company platforms, the price of gold has increased by 1.5% since the beginning of the new year. Similarly, the price of silver attempted to reach $31 per ounce. According to trades, the price of silver increased by 5% in the first trades of 2025.
US Federal Reserve Signals and Their Impact on Gold
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last month. The meeting summary revealed two things: policymakers are concerned about the trade and immigration policies of President-elect Donald Trump, and officials are concerned about inflation risks. The meeting minutes added: "Almost all participants judged that the upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased." And "as reasons for this judgment, participants cited stronger-than-expected recent readings on inflation and the potential implications of possible changes in trade and immigration policy."
For his part, Trump has vowed to impose global tariffs and large levies on Chinese goods. He has also threatened to impose large tariffs on Canada, Mexico and countries involved in anti-dollar efforts.
At the last meeting of 2024, FOMC members voted to cut the US interest rate by another quarter point to a range of 4.25% and 4.5%. However, they now expect only one more quarter-point cut in the US interest rate this year, down from the initial estimate of four quarter-point cuts.
In general, investors widely believe the Fed will hit the pause button later this month. Ultimately, according to the December minutes, officials believe it would be wise to take a more cautious approach to normalizing US interest rates. Meanwhile, this would normally be bad news for gold and silver markets, precious metals remained positive as Treasury yields fell. The benchmark 10-year yield fell 1.2 basis points to 4.673%. furthermore, lower yields are good for gold prices because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Stronger US Dollar Affects the Pace of Gains
According to forex market trades, the US dollar is still hovering near its two-year high. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, has risen to the resistance level of 109.06, its highest level in two years. As is well known, a stronger US dollar is a negative factor for dollar-denominated commodities as it makes them more expensive for foreign investors to buy.
Trading Tips:
Always keep gold in your trading portfolio and do not forget that it rose last year by 27 percent, supported by global geopolitical tensions, easing central bank policies, and their strong purchase of gold. These factors still exist.
Will Gold Reach $3000?
In this regard, Goldman Sachs has postponed a target for gold prices to $3000 until mid-2026 after expecting gold to reach that level in the new year 2025. Furthermore, the bank reduced its forecast on the back of expectations of fewer cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Against this backdrop, bullish bets by hedge funds have fallen to their lowest level in six months, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
In general, the gold price index may remain in its current environment until the interaction with the US jobs report tomorrow, Friday, which is expected to show a moderate but still healthy US labour market. Moreover, the data is unlikely to change the view that the Federal Reserve will take a more cautious approach to cutting US interest rates in 2025 amid renewed concerns about inflation.
Gold Price Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
According to the daily chart and the forecasts of gold analysts today, the overall trend leans more towards the upside. Also, the bulls are cautiously approaching the psychological resistance level of $2700 per ounce, which could support further strong positive momentum for gold prices. The Relative Strength Index and the MACD on this period are turning upwards and there are opportunities for further gains before reaching strong overbought levels. Overall, I still prefer buying gold from any downward level. Currently, the closest support levels for gold prices are $2648, $2625, and $2600 per ounce.
The above content is all about "【XM Group】--XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today: Following Fed Signals", which is carefully compiled and edited by XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful for your trading! Thank you for your support!
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