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market analysis
【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Further Losses Expected
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Further Losses Expected". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- The EUR/USD price returned to its lowest in more than two years, as it collapsed at the beginning of this important week’s trading to the support level of 1.0211 before settling around the level of 1.0285 at the time of writing the analysis.
- Meanwhile, the Euro’s losses increased in the Forex market after the start of a trade war that will soon include the European Union.
US Tariffs Harm the Eurozone
According to reliable trading companies’ platforms, it was noticeable that the Euro’s performance was negatively affected by the weekend news regarding a series of tariff announcements from US President Donald Trump, which have so far only affected China, Canada and Mexico. However, when asked about the tariffs by the press, Trump said on Friday, “Absolutely… The European Union treats us very badly.”
He added on Sunday: “It will definitely happen with the European Union. They really take advantage of us. We have a deficit of more than $300 billion. I can’t say there is a timetable, but it will happen very soon. Trump added about the European Union: “They don’t take our cars; they don’t take our agricultural products. They take almost nothing, and we take everything, and then millions of cars, and huge amounts of food and agricultural products.”
Global tariff exchange will have a major impact on the eurozone economy
In response to the US administration's imposition of tariffs, Canada has imposed its own tariffs on imports, and Mexico and China are preparing their own packages. Experts have reacted by saying, "The second trade war has begun. With markets pricing in the tariffs premium at less than its real value, global analysts maintain a preference for quality and defence in trading stocks, the US dollar and the Japanese yen against the Chinese yuan and the Euro in foreign exchange."
In general, the European Union economy is particularly oriented towards exporting high-end manufactured goods, which means that tariffs could exacerbate the already noticeable economic slowdown. This would call for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, which would mechanically affect the euro.
Trading Tips:
Be careful as the euro gains will be vulnerable to a rapid collapse as long as the eurozone economy suffers and at the same time the dollar benefits from the demand for it as a safe haven amid Trump's trade wars.
According to forex market trading, the EUR/USD is trending downward, and the sale on February 3 brought it close to its lowest levels in 2025, with some buying interest emerging. However, the pair's trend is clear, and a new low seems likely this week, before testing parity sometime in the early part of the first half.
Currency experts' expectations for the euro dollar
In this regard, and following US actions, Goldman Sachs said it maintains a view that the EUR/USD pair will fall below parity in the coming months. According to the bank's memo, "We previously estimated that the dollar could appreciate over time by 8-10% against the euro in a global tariff scenario if policy followed the Taylor rule. There are several layers of assumptions, but we still believe it's a useful starting point."
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Keep in mind that the overall trend of the EUR/USD is bearish. Technically, the strong dominance of bears may allow them to move quickly towards parity soon. Also, this may happen technically if the EUR/USD pair first moves towards support levels of 1.0220, 1.0160, and 1.0090, respectively. Consequently, moving to them will push all technical indicators towards oversold levels. we still prefer selling the Euro against the US dollar, and there may be opportunities for a cautious upward correction if US jobs data this week comes in below expectations.
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