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【XM Market Review】--USD/TRY Forecast: USD/TRY Soars to 35.29 as Turkish Central Bank Plans Rate Cuts
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Review】--USD/TRY Forecast: USD/TRY Soars to 35.29 as Turkish Central Bank Plans Rate Cuts". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 35.10.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.85.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 35.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 35.50.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 35.60.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 35.29.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair continued its limited gains on Thursday morning, breaching the previous peak and reaching its all-time high at 35.29 lira. The rise of the dollar against the lira comes amid the Central Bank's and the Ministry of Finance's decreasing support for the lira, as the lira has been recording continuous declines in recent months.
The lira lost about 17% of its value in 2024, with expectations of further losses after today's expected Central Bank decision. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the bank will cut the interest rate by 200 basis points, bringing the interest rate to 48%. These expectations come as inflation slowed on an annual basis in November for the sixth consecutive month, recording 47.1%, while monthly inflation slowed to 2.24% in November.
Recently, the Central Bank of Turkey has kept the interest rate unchanged at 50% for eight consecutive meetings as part of policymakers' efforts to control high inflation rates.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Turkey issued a statement revealing a reduction in the number of Monetary Policy Committee meetings next year to only eight, compared to twelve meetings held in 2024. Clearly, the bank attributed this decision to its plan to simplify monetary policy management. Also, the bank's announcement included a direction to end the protected lira deposit program against foreign exchange fluctuations in 2025. Finally, the Central Bank confirmed in its report that the weekly repurchase rate will remain the main monetary policy tool, noting that it will continue to set policies based on a medium-term inflation target of 5%.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
On the technical level, the dollar pair against the lira (USD/TRY) rose, recording a new high at 35.29 liras. The price returned to stabilize above the ascending trend line shown on the chart, as well as the 50-day moving average on the four-hour time frame, which represent the most important technical elements supporting the pair's rise. Technically, the general upward trend continues to dominate. With the price moving above two ascending trend lines, as well as with the price moving above the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Meanwhile, the Turkish Lira price forecast is in favour of the dollar continuing to rise against the lira. Finally, each dip represents an opportunity to buy back with the pair targeting the 35.50 and 35.70 levels respectively.
The above content is all about "【XM Market Review】--USD/TRY Forecast: USD/TRY Soars to 35.29 as Turkish Central Bank Plans Rate Cuts", which is carefully compiled and edited by XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful for your trading! Thank you for your support!
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