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The data is late but arriving! Will this "outdated" report keep Wall Street awake at night?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Data is late but arriving! Will this "outdated" report keep Wall Street awake at night?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for September and October at 23:00 on Tuesday, December 9. This is due to the data backlog caused by the previous long-term shutdown of the federal government. The xm-forex.combined disclosure of key employment indicators originally released on a monthly basis means that the market will receive two months of core labor market information in one day. This timing is extremely sensitive - it is released exactly one day before the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting. Although it will not directly affect this interest rate decision, it will become an important benchmark for judging future policy directions.
The market generally expects 7.2 million job vacancies in October, slightly lower than the 7.227 million announced in August. If the actual data is close to or even lower than this level, it will further strengthen the signal that the labor market continues to cool. Currently, although inflation is still higher than the approximately 2% target set by the Federal Reserve, the focus of policymakers has gradually shifted from price pressures to changes in the employment situation. More and more policymakers are beginning to worry about a substantial deterioration in the labor market, and this concern has even exceeded their vigilance about high inflation.
The JOLTS report is highly valued because it not only reflects the xm-forex.company’s willingness to recruit, but also reveals changes in worker confidence and corporate employment strategies through subdivided indicators such as resignation rates and layoff rates. For example, a higher resignation rate usually means that employees have strong confidence in the future and dare to take the initiative to change jobs; while a decrease in job vacancies may indicate that corporate expansion is slowing down or that the xm-forex.company is becoming pessimistic about the economic outlook. Therefore, this report is considered a measure of labor supply and demandThe "thermometer" of the relationship is the key link between the real economy and monetary policy.
Lagging but not negligible: Why can outdated data still roil the market?
Although the JOLTS data itself has an obvious lag - normally released with a one-month delay, this time it was further delayed to mid-December due to the government shutdown, and traders are looking at the situation two to three months ago - but this does not weaken its influence. On the contrary, during the window period that lacks the support of real-time high-frequency data, such official statistics have become the core basis for market interpretation of trends. Especially when it is cross-validated with other employment indicators that have been released one after another, such as the number of initial jobless claims and the non-farm payrolls report, its reference value is significantly improved.
What traders really care about is not a single number, but whether there is a structural shift in the trend behind it. If the number of job vacancies in September and October falls below 7.2 million consecutively, coupled with subsequent weak non-farm data, a fall in wage growth or a rise in unemployment, then the market will reassess the possibility of the Fed's future policies. Currently, the financial market is heating up on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026. Behind this expectation is the judgment that employment momentum has weakened.
In addition, the Federal Reserve will release the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in the near future, which contains the median forecasts of multiple policy members for economic growth, inflation and unemployment in the next few years, as well as their personal judgments on the path of interest rates, the so-called "dot plot." If the majority of members lower the long-term interest rate center, or signal the start time of interest rate cuts in advance, it will greatly enhance easing expectations. By then, even if the current data lags behind, its linkage effect with forward guidance may still trigger a series of revaluations of financial assets such as a decline in bond yields and pressure on the U.S. dollar.
The deep game behind the cooling of employment: the Fed’s dilemma
From a more macro perspective, the monetary policy framework in 2026 will be highly dependent on the evolution of economic data in the next few months. Although inflation has not yet returned steadily to the target range, if the job market deteriorates significantly, the Fed may have to make a difficult trade-off between controlling inflation and stabilizing employment. Historical experience shows that once unemployment rises rapidly, central banks may choose to prioritize preventing the economy from falling into a deep recession, even if inflation remains high.
Changes in corporate employment behavior also confirm this shift. The decline in the number of job vacancies suggests that xm-forex.companies are becoming more cautious and scaling back hiring plans in the face of uncertainty. This will not only affect the growth of residents' income, thereby suppressing consumer spending - after all, employment is the main source of household income - it may also drag down capital expenditure and weaken the motivation to improve production efficiency. At the same time, if the number of layoffs increases and the resignation rate decreases, it will reflect the weakening bargaining power of workers and the pressure on wage growth is expected to ease, which will have a certain positive effect on controlling core inflation.
However, the interference of structural factors on the overall data cannot be ignored. In the past year, some industries have experienced multiple rounds of layoffs, while the recovery of the manufacturing industry has been slow and the recovery pace of the service industry has been uneven, leading toAs a result, the job market has become significantly divided. Inter-regional differences are also prominent: the labor force participation rate in some states has rebounded quickly, while other regions are facing population outflow and skills mismatch. These details are difficult to fully reflect in aggregate data, but they may affect the actual transmission effect of monetary policy, making the "one size fits all" interest rate policy face challenges.
The data storm has begun: the policy turning point is approaching
Generally speaking, although the JOLTS report released this time is a lagging indicator, it still has strong wind vane significance as the Fed’s policy window approaches. It is not only a mirror to observe the warmth and coldness of the U.S. labor market, but also a key bridge connecting the real economy and financial market expectations. Looking forward, as more employment-related data such as initial jobless claims, non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings are released, the market's understanding of the Fed's policy path in 2026 will gradually become clearer. Whether it is maintaining high interest rates, starting a rate cut cycle, or adjusting forward guidance, all decisions will be "data-based" rather than based on subjective predictions. Against this background, financial market fluctuations are expected to revolve around the two main lines of employment and inflation.
If follow-up data show that the U.S. economy has achieved a "soft landing" - that is, a moderate decline in inflation without a cliff-like decline in the job market - risky assets may receive support; but if there are signs of "stagflation" or a "hard landing", all types of asset prices may face severe revaluation. Therefore, although the current JOLTS report itself has limited impact on this meeting, it marks the beginning of a new round of data verification period.
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Data is late but arriving! Will this "outdated" report keep Wall Street awake at night?" It is carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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