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The release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls in October may be postponed, and the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide this week

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls in October may be postponed, and the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide this week." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

XM Foreign Exchange Market Preview: The release of the U.S.'s October non-farm payrolls may be postponed, and the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide this week

▲XM chart

At 21:30 this Friday, if the U.S. government shutdown ends, the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October non-farm employment report; if the U.S. government shutdown continues, the non-farm employment report may not be released on time. If the non-farm employment report is released, the most watched indicator is the number of new non-farm jobs, which was previously 22,000. The previous value mentioned here is not September data, but August data. Because the U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, and the September non-farm payrolls report was supposed to be released on October 3, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was still shut down on that day, so it could not be released as scheduled. The expected value of financial institutions is 50,000 people, which is higher than the previous value of 22,000 people, but well below the normal level of 150,000 to 250,000 people. Even if the announced value meets expectations, it will be difficult to boost market confidence. Due to the uncertainty in the timing of the big non-farm payrolls release, the market's focus turns to this Wednesday's small non-farm payrolls data. The previous value was -32,000, and the expected value was 24,000. Although the expectation has turned from negative to positive, the absolute value is still low, and the outlook for the U.S. job market is pessimistic.

▲ According to the survey, 54 of the 63 economists surveyed said that the Bank of England will announce that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 4.00% at the interest rate decision on November 6. This survey deepens the market’s expectation that the Bank of England will remain unchanged. According to economic data, since the second quarter of 2022, the UK’s The GDP growth rate has been consistently below 1%, with the lowest even reaching -0.3%. The macro economy may fall into recession at any time. The annual core CPI rate in the UK in September was 3.5%, and the annual nominal CPI rate was 3.8%. Both are higher than the moderate inflation standard of 2%, which means that the UK has not yet reached a recession. xm-forex.completely get rid of high inflation. Since August 2024, the Bank of England has cut interest rates 5 times, with a cumulative range of 125 basis points. We believe that the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates, but the frequency of interest rate cuts will be very low to ensure that interest rates have a suppressive effect on the inflation rate.

▲XM Chart

At 11:30 this Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the results of its November interest rate decision. The mainstream expectation is that it will remain unchanged at 3.6%. At 12:30 that day, RBA Chairman Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. At the end of October, RBA Bullock said: "The interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia may not be lowered as much as other central banks. "The reason is that Bullock is still worried about inflation data. In the third quarter of this year, Australia's nominal CPI annual rate was 3.2%, much higher than the 2.1% in the second quarter, and inflation showed signs of rapid rebound. In terms of core inflation rate, the core CPI annual rate in the third quarter was 3%, which was also higher than the previous value. Australia Federation The inflation target set by the Reserve Bank is 2%, and the current nominal and core inflation rates are higher than this level. The RBA does not have the inflation environment to cut interest rates.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the personal opinions of analysts. , does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not regard this report as the only reference. Analysts’ opinions may change at different times, and the content will be updated without further notice.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The U.S. Non-Farm Payroll may be postponed in October." Released, the entire content of this week's resolutions of the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia" was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!

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The release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls in October may be postponed, and the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide this week

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

The release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls in October may be postponed, and the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide this week

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason