The room for the UK's fiscal compliance to meet the standards has doubled. Analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 26

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.15%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.30%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.42%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.31%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.40%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.06%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.72%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The British fiscal standard has doubled, and budget mistakes cannot hide the positive news

⑴The British Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed that the government will achieve its own fiscal rules with a higher safety margin after implementing new budget measures. ⑵According to the requirements of the rules, the government needs to achieve a balance between daily expenditure and tax revenue by March 2030, and the proportion of debt in economic output must decrease. ⑶The latest forecast shows that the first target will have room for 22 billion pounds, and the second target will have room for 24 billion pounds, both significantly higher than last year's budget. ⑷ The economic growth forecast has been raised, with this year's growth rate raised from 1.0% to 1.5%, but the 2026 forecast is lowered from 1.9% to 1.4%. ⑸ The mid-term productivity growth forecast has been lowered, reflecting the persistence of structural challenges that may constrain long-term growth potential. ⑹ The Office of Budget Responsibility released the forecast ahead of schedule due to a technical error, and has officially apologized and launched an internal investigation. ⑺Despite the surprise in the release process, the improvement in core financial indicators has injected confidence into the market, especially the expansion of the room to meet the standards has alleviated concerns about debt sustainability. ⑻ This forecast provides strong support for the Chancellor’s policy plan, but the divergent growth prospects imply that the economy is still facing challenges.Facing cyclical pressure.

Inflation in Australia rose more than expected in October

⑴Australia’s consumer price index in October was higher than expected, indicating that inflationary pressure is rising again, and the possibility of a recent interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia has been basically ruled out. ⑵ Overall inflation remained flat month-on-month (expected to fall by 0.2%) and increased by 3.8% year-on-year (expected to be 3.6%), further deviating from the RBA's target range of 2-3%. ⑶The core inflation indicators are more severe: the trimmed mean rose to 3.3% year-on-year (2.9% expected, up 0.3% month-on-month), and the weighted median reached 3.4% year-on-year (2.95% expected). ⑷With both overall and core inflation overheating, this data strengthens the Reserve Bank of Australia's stance of maintaining high interest rates for longer. ⑸The release of October data also marks the monthly consumer price index officially becoming Australia's main inflation indicator, helping to capture inflation trends faster and provide policymakers with more detailed classifications.

The unexpected early release of the British budget report caused market fluctuations

⑴ The British Office for Budget Responsibility unexpectedly released a xm-forex.complete fiscal outlook in advance due to "technical problems", showing that the government will achieve a surplus of 21.7 billion pounds by 2029-30, more than double the fiscal space of 9.9 billion pounds predicted in March. ⑵ The outlook details a budget focused on tax increases, including extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds for three years (an increase of £8 billion), increasing dividend/property/savings tax rates (£2.1 billion), and imposing national insurance premiums on salary replacement pensions (£4.7 billion). ⑶The total personal tax revenue will increase by 14.9 billion pounds. Other measures include new taxes on properties above 2 million pounds, a tax on electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles from April 2028 (1.4 billion pounds) and * tax reform (1.1 billion pounds). ⑷Despite the increase in taxes, expenditures rise every year and will increase by 11 billion pounds by 2029-30, making it the third largest medium-term tax increase plan since 2010. ⑸The Office of Budget Responsibility now believes that the probability of achieving the fiscal target is 59% (previously 54%), and has raised the GDP growth rate in 2025 to 1.5% but lowered it to 1.4% in 2026. ⑹ The inflation rate is expected to be 3.5% next year, falling to 2% by 2027, and the debt will be stable at around 95-96% of GDP. ⑺ The pound-dollar exchange rate fell sharply after rising high, and the early announcement caused market chaos: the pound-dollar briefly broke through 1.3200 and then fell to 1.3136. ⑻ The yield on the 10-year British government bond rebounded from 4.43% to 4.53%. This incident caused political embarrassment. Market signals indicate that this may be the last budget of the current finance minister.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is near a one-month low

⑴ The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield hovered near 4.0% on Wednesday, essentially unchanged before the Thanksgiving holiday, and remained near a one-month low. ⑵ Traders continue to evaluate the Fed's next policy move, and expectations for another 25 basis point interest rate cut have risen to more than 80%. ⑶This expectation was supported by weak U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve officialsSupported by dovish rhetoric. ⑷ There are reports that Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, is the main candidate to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Investors believe that this choice is consistent with the tendency to lower interest rates. ⑸The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation plans to relax the supplementary leverage ratio regulations, which will increase the amount of Treasury bonds that major banks can hold and also put pressure on yields.

U.S. mortgage rates have climbed for four consecutive weeks

⑴ Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that as of the week of November 21, 2025, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the United States rose slightly to 6.4% from 6.37% in the previous period. ⑵ This marked the fourth consecutive week of increases in interest rates, reaching their highest level since mid-October. ⑶ The number of mortgage loan applications increased by 0.2%, of which home purchase loan applications surged by 7.6%, while refinancing applications fell by 5.7%. ⑷The vice president of the association said: "Many markets still face challenges, and government loan programs remain attractive to qualified home buyers." ⑸The average home purchase loan size fell to the lowest level in two months.

Angola’s debt extension seeks change, and US$1 billion financing game interest rate

⑴ Senior officials from the Angola Ministry of Finance confirmed that they will extend the soon-to-expiry US$1 billion JPMorgan Chase financing arrangement and seek to lower loan interest rates. ⑵ The original interest rate has not been publicly disclosed, but the Ministry of Finance revealed in May that it was slightly lower than 9%. The core of this extension negotiation is to reduce financing costs. ⑶This total return swap derivatives contract uses US$1.9 billion of specially issued Angolan government US dollar bonds as collateral and has a xm-forex.complex structure. ⑷In April this year, as Trump's tariff remarks impacted the value of mortgage bonds, JPMorgan Chase asked for an additional US$200 million, which was later lifted as the bonds rebounded. ⑸The current trading price of the bond is close to its face value, quoted at 99.8 cents, indicating that the market’s credit status of Angola has improved. ⑹ African frontier countries are increasingly adopting xm-forex.complex financing structures to avoid financing restrictions of low credit ratings and high debt burdens. ⑺The Angolan government emphasized that this move did not actually increase the book debt, and obtaining loans through mortgage bonds was an off-balance sheet financing innovation. ⑻ This crude oil exporting country faces pressure from multiple creditors, including oil mortgage loans provided by China, and has not yet reached a financing plan with the International Monetary Fund.

The UK fuel tax freeze is extended to 2026, with a fiscal cost of up to 2.4 billion pounds

⑴ British Finance Minister Reeves will announce that the fuel tax rate will continue to be frozen until September 2026, continuing the policy tradition since 2011. ⑵ The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that this policy will cause a revenue loss of 2.4 billion pounds next year. ⑶ As an important financial source, fuel tax contributes about 25 billion pounds in tax revenue every year. The continuous freeze significantly restricts fiscal space. ⑷Successive governments continued to maintain tax rates unchanged due to concerns about driver protests, forming a special policy inertia. ⑸ While this decision relieves family living cost pressure, it also highlights the practical dilemma facing fiscal balance. ⑹ The long-term freeze on fuel taxes is in sharp contrast to the overall tax increase tone, reflecting the government’s xm-forex.commitment to people’s livelihood.Tough trade-offs with finances. ⑺Although policy continuity is conducive to stabilizing expectations, the accumulated fiscal revenue gap needs to be made up through other taxes. ⑻With the popularization of new energy vehicles, the fuel tax base is gradually eroded, and the pressure for British tax reform is increasing day by day.

The Japanese bond curve flattened, and expectations of central bank interest rate hikes resonated with the hot sales of 40-year government bonds

⑴ The Japanese bond yield curve showed a flattening trend on Wednesday. The short-term end was under pressure due to the rising expectations of the central bank to raise interest rates in December, while the ultra-long end benefited from the smooth support of the 40-year government bond auction. ⑵ Futures opened at 135.12, up 12 basis points from Tuesday, and then hit an intraday high of 135.13 driven by the global bond market, but the rally failed to continue. ⑶ It was reported before midday that the Bank of Japan was preparing to raise interest rates as soon as next month, and futures fell to a low of 134.85. ⑷ The restarted issuance of 40-year government bonds performed strongly, with the winning bid yield of 3.699% lower than 3.705% at midday, and the bidding coverage rate reached 2.59 times, which was the same as the previous period. ⑸Hedge funds and life insurance xm-forex.companies actively participated in the bidding, pushing the 40-year yield down to 3.68% after the auction, and long-term varieties generally strengthened. ⑹ Changes in the Bank of Japan’s xm-forex.communication methods have strengthened expectations of interest rate hikes. The OIS market has priced the probability of an interest rate hike in December at 62%, which is significantly higher than yesterday’s 51.5%. ⑺ Futures closed down 0.04 points to 134.96, and the 10-year spot yield increased 1.5 basis points to 1.815%, but failed to break through the key support of 1.80%. ⑻The market focus turned to the meeting between the Ministry of Finance and investors, and the additional bond issuance plan that may be brought about by the government stimulus package became the focus of attention.

The European Parliament passed the EU's 2026 annual budget

On November 26, local time, European Parliament Speaker Metsoora posted on social media that the European Parliament passed the EU's 2026 annual budget that day, with investment areas covering security, research, infrastructure, environment and health. The European Council approved the EU's 2026 annual budget on the 24th and submitted it to the European Parliament. The total budget is 192.8 billion euros and the total expenditure is set at 190.1 billion euros. According to procedures, the budget was finally approved when it was passed by the European Parliament.

Inflation in Norway remains stubborn, and the central bank sticks to the anti-inflation front

⑴The governor of Norway’s central bank made it clear that although the increase in policy interest rates has had an effect on suppressing inflation, the current inflation level continues to be higher than the target value. ⑵ Domestic prices have maintained a rapid growth trend, reflecting the sustained pressure brought about by the sharp increase in corporate costs in recent years. ⑶ The decline in import costs failed to xm-forex.completely offset the internal inflationary momentum, indicating that price pressure is shifting from external input to endogenous growth. ⑷The central bank acknowledges that there is uncertainty about the impact of Trump’s tariff remarks, but so far the actual impact on the Norwegian economy has been relatively limited. ⑸ This statement implies that the central bank may maintain a tightening policy stance until it is confirmed that inflation has reliably returned to the target track. ⑹ The corporate cost transmission mechanism is still functioning, and the risk of mutual reinforcement of service industry inflation and wage growth requires close attention. ⑺Unlike other major central banks,The Norges Bank is more concerned about the risk of domestic economic overheating, and the timing of policy change may be relatively lagging. ⑻ Energy price fluctuations and changes in the krona exchange rate remain key variables that may change the inflation outlook and policy path.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1582, an increase of 0.10%. Prices (EUR/USD) fell in the final session before the New York session, erasing most of today's early gains, trying to unload some clear overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, especially with the emergence of negative signals to gather its positive strength, which may help it regain its bullish momentum and rise again, influenced by an inverted head and shoulders pattern, with positive support from the EMA50.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3211, an increase of 0.34%. Pre-market in New York, (GBPUSD) price has risen in recent day trading, after consolidating its previous gains while digesting clear overbought conditions on the Relative Strength Index, opening the way for additional gains in the xm-forex.coming period. It is currently preparing to attack the key resistance level at 1.3215, influenced by a short-term break of the main bearish trend, and supported by the price holding above the EMA50, thus enhancing the possibility of extending the rally.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 4163.38, an increase of 0.76%. The (gold) price rose on the last trading day before the New York session, supported by its continuous trading above the EMA50, the relative strength indicator showed positive signals, the main bullish trend dominated, and its trading was parallel to the secondary trend lines supporting the stability of the trend.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 52.389, an increase of 1.81%. Before the New York market opened, (silver) prices continued to rise in the latest session, attacking the resistance of $52.35. This resistance represented a potential target in our previous analysis. Although it reached overbought levels, the positive signal emerging on the relative strength indicator supported this target, and its trading above the EMA50 represented dynamic support, providing new momentum and increasing the chances of breaking through the resistance.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, currently trading at 57.880, a decrease of 0.10%. Before the New York market opened, (crude oil) prices fell in the last intraday trading due to the impact of a small short-term bearish trend test, and the impact was intensified as it traded below the EMA50. Additionally, a negative overlay signal appeared on the Relative Strength Index, indicating that the price's upward momentum was quickly fading in early trade.

4. Institutional view

UBS: U.S. bond yields still have room to fall as the interest rate cut cycle continues

UBS (37.590.802.17%) analysts said in a report that the U.S. economic data released on Tuesday caused Treasury bond yields to fall across the board, and as the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, there is room for further declines in yields. The bank predicts that the 10-year Treasury bond yield will fall to 3.75% by June 2026, indicating potential capital gains opportunities.

UBS pointed out that since the U.S. Treasury Department relies more on short-term bill issuance, the scope for any sharp rise in Treasury yields should be limited. "This creates an attractive risk-reward ratio for high-quality bonds - providing sustainable returns under the baseline scenario and the potential for outperformance if economic activity slows." According to Tradeweb (107.52.402.28%) data, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 1.1 basis points to 4.013%.

JPMorgan Chase strategist: The S&P 500 index is expected to rise by about 11% by the end of 2026

JPMorgan Chase strategists predict that the S&P 500 index will be around 7,500 points by the end of 2026, which means it will rise by about 11%, joining the camp of bullish U.S. stocks. The team’s target is higher than the 7,269 average forecast by strategists tracked by Bloomberg as of last week. The S&P 500 closed at 6,765.88 points on Tuesday, up 15% this year.

JPMorgan strategists such as Dubravko Lakos-Bujas also expect strong earnings growth, ranging from 13% to 15% for at least the next two years. In a more optimistic scenario, if the Fed's policy is more easing than expected, they believe that the S&P 500 index may exceed 8,000 points next year. "Despite the AI ​​bubble and valuation concerns, we believe the current higher valuations reasonably reflect above-trend earnings growth expectations, a boom in AI capex, increasing shareholder returns, and looser fiscal policy," they wrote in the note. Judging from this target point, these strategists' expectations are rarely optimistic. They have always been very cautious about U.S. stocks in recent years. Lakos-Bujas had expected the S&P 500 to close around 6,000 by the end of 2025, implying a gain of just 2% from the end of 2024. Strategists including MislavMatejka share the same view on European stocks, predicting profits next yearThere will be an improvement, pushing the Eurozone Stoxx 50 Index up 14% to 6,350 points.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The UK's fiscal xm-forex.compliance space has doubled, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 26". It is carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some contents in the article still need to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: