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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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CATEGORIES
News
- The pound is lingering at 1.33. Is the sudden market coming soon?
- 8.15 Gold rebounds are weak and crude oil fluctuates and rises today's market tr
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- US CPI and GDP of many countries will join hands with "terror data" to debut
- With the fiscal turmoil again, can the pound stabilize its rise?
market analysis
EUR/USD waiting for "data resurrection" to break the 1.1570 deadlock?
Wonderful introduction:
The moon waxes and wanes, people have joys and sorrows, life changes, and the year has four seasons. If you survive the long night, you can see the dawn, if you endure the pain, you can have happiness, if you endure the cold winter, you no longer need to hibernate, and after the cold plums have fallen, you can look forward to the new year.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: EUR/USD waiting for "data resurrection" to break the 1.1570 deadlock?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (October 31) during the European session, the EURUSD traded sideways near 1.1570, in the low consolidation range after the sharp decline on the previous trading day. The exchange rate fell from a high near 1.1665 once this week, hitting as low as 1.1546, and then stabilized above 1.1554, but failed to regain its position above 1.1600.
The market is currently focusing on two main lines: one is whether the hawkish tone released by the Federal Reserve is enough to continue to support the US dollar, and the other is whether the European Central Bank has really "pinned down" the expectation of further interest rate cuts after standing still on the deposit rate of 2%. The overall judgment is that although the US dollar still has the advantage in the short term, the bottom resilience of the euro is beginning to appear, and the subsequent trend may gradually transition from a unilateral decline to a wide range of oscillations.
Fundamental analysis:
First, the ECB's attitude provides a "floor" for the euro, but it is not a "spring". The European Central Bank maintained the deposit interest rate at 2% at its latest meeting. President Lagarde emphasized "risk balance", which is equivalent to sending a signal to the market: as long as there are no surprises, monetary policy will remain stable and will not be in a hurry to lower the policy interest rate again. She also pointed out that risks are not entirely unilateral and some downside risks have eased in recent weeks, while emphasizing that we are currently in a "period of high uncertainty." This statement has two meanings: first, the European Central Bank did not give a timetable for the next interest rate cut, and the market's original bet on "continued easing" has been significantly cooled; second, the European Central Bank strategically placed itself in the position of "observer" rather than "firefighting team", which itself is suppressing further dovish speculation. In other words, the ECB’s primary goal at this moment is not stimulus;Maintain the current interest rate platform to prevent the market from moving toward a "low interest rate normal" in advance, thereby protecting the interest rate differential attractiveness of the euro. Since some funds had been trading "faster interest rate cuts" in advance, this unexpected degree of toughness gave the euro some breathing space near 1.1550, preventing the euro against the dollar from directly breaking through 1.1500 yesterday.
Second, the marginal improvement in Eurozone growth data is being viewed as a support level by the market. Lagarde mentioned that the Eurozone as a whole grew by 0.2% month-on-month in the third quarter, with France unexpectedly recording a month-on-month growth rate of 0.5%, which was higher than the market’s general expectations for the region’s recent growth momentum. Although this is not enough to declare a "recovery", it is enough to form a logic: the ECB does not need to worry too much about growth, and therefore does not need to release additional accommodation immediately. This xm-forex.combination of "slightly better growth + stable monetary policy" has suppressed euro shorts in the short term and continued to increase their positions significantly. At the same time, many officials within the European Central Bank echoed Lagarde's main line in subsequent public statements: The economic outlook is improving at the margin, the current policy interest rate is at an "appropriate position", and there is no urgent reason to lower it further. This series of statements has significantly pushed back the market's idea of further interest rate cuts in December, which has provided some passive support for the euro against the US dollar.
Third, the dollar’s dominance xm-forex.comes from the Fed’s tone, not new data. The U.S. government is still in a state of shutdown recently, and the non-farm payrolls report, which should normally be released on the first Friday of each month, is likely to be absent again, and the "hard data" on the labor market cannot be released on time. What does missing data mean? This means that the market can only enlarge its interpretation of the Fed's words. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s latest rhetoric can be summarized as “We have relaxed once, but don’t regard this as the starting point of the easing cycle” and hinted that “this may be the last interest rate cut in 2025.” On the surface, this is not an interest rate hike, but the actual effect is equivalent to a "verbal interest rate hike": the U.S. dollar index has risen by nearly 2% this month, while the EURUSD has been pushed down from around 1.1665 to the 1.1546 area. As a result, even if the European Central Bank did not turn dovish, the euro was still forced to fall against the US dollar, showing that the Fed's voice is still higher than that of the European Central Bank at this moment.
Technical aspect:
From the 30-minute K-line chart, the EURUSD quickly turned into a downward trend after forming a stage high at 1.1665, accompanied by a series of long negative lines of entities, and then the lower shadow line appeared for the first time near 1.1577, prompting the buying below to start trying to take over. After that, the exchange rate rebounded upward for a while, but encountered strong resistance near 1.1600, indicating that 1.1600 has evolved into a key short-term resistance level and is also the "threshold" that bulls must recover if they want to turn around. After failing to effectively break through, the market dipped again, reaching the lowest level of 1.1546. In the subsequent shock, it stabilized above 1.1554 for a second time, and gradually entered the horizontal channel consolidation of 1.1560-1.1580.
MACD indicator (26,12,9) shows that DIFF is -0.0002, DEA is -0.0003, still below the zero axis, but the two lines have begun to converge. The MACD histogram has gradually turned from the previous negative green column to a slightly red column, reflecting the attenuation of short kinetic energy and possible momentum replenishment. This is a typical "slowing down" signal. The relative strength index RSI (14) is located near 48.4785. It is generally in the oversold zone below 50 but significantly above 30. It is a neutral and slightly weak state, indicating that the current situation is not panic selling, but more like a slow war of attrition in which short sellers control the rhythm at a low level and force bulls to hand over their rebounding chips. Taken together, the 1.1546-1.1554 area constitutes the recent static support band, and 1.1600 is the static resistance line above. As long as there is no heavy volume breaking through 1.1600, the trend is still defined as a consolidation market dominated by downward pressure, rather than a xm-forex.complete reversal.
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