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The Bank of England continues to be cautious when it remains calm! Differences between investment banks and market expectations

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: The Bank of England continues to be cautious! Investment banks diverge from market expectations." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Asian market market

On Thursday, the number of initial unemployment claims announced by the United States hit the largest decline in nearly four years, reversing the significant growth in the previous week's US dollar index recovered the 97 mark. As of now, the US dollar is quoted at 97.37.

Summary of fundamentals of the foreign exchange market

Trump opposes Britain's recognition of the Palestinian State.

Trump: I can consider offering tariff refunds to Americans.

Trump: We need to further lower oil prices. If we lower oil prices, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will end.

The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral debate on Trump's tariff case on November 5. The Trump administration requested the U.S. Supreme Court to allow the removal of Fed Director Cook. The data on unemployment benefits in the United States has suffered a big mistake, and the data in one state is underestimated by nearly 20,000 people.

Source: If the Israeli government announces annexation of the West Bank, the UAE may downgrade its relations with Israel.

The UK and Japan increased their holdings of U.S. bonds in July, while China reduced their holdings.

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4% with a 7-2 vote, reducing the pace of quantitative tightening from £100 billion to £70 billion. Bailey, the bank's president, said he still believes that interest rate cuts will continue.

Summary of institutional views

Dutch International Bank: Doves can't support the interest rate cut agenda, and the Bank of England will have little to turn around X months ago

The Bank of England's resolution on Thursday has almost nothing to cause market turmoil. English CentralThe bank interest rate remained unchanged at 4%, in line with general market expectations. Only two well-known dovish people voted to support the rate cut by 25 basis points. The central bank's long-standing forward-looking guidance—simply put, further interest rate cuts will be progressive and cautious—stay unchanged. In addition, quantitative tightening policy is set to £70 billion in the next 12 months, which is consistent with investors' consensus. This means that as bank reserves gradually approach their expected equilibrium level, the rate of debt shrinkage is more gradual than in the past few years.

Not surprising, as things have not changed much since the August meeting, and it is difficult for the Bank of England to make a more significant shift in position. The job market and inflation data we have are basically consistent with the central bank's forecast. Even if the timing of a rate cut in the future looks less clear. Currently, the interest rate of 4% of banks is higher than the neutral level, and we believe there will be two to three interest rate cuts in the future. We expect the next UK inflation report (to be released before November meeting) to be slightly lower than the Bank of England’s forecast for the services sector.

In addition, the budget was released a few weeks after the November 6 decision, which means the Bank of England may not fully incorporate it into the decision until it is updated again in February. We are still slightly inclined to see the Bank of England cut interest rates again this year, although this view is not very credible. At present, it seems that the possibility of a rate cut in November is roughly the same, and the final data will determine the final result.

Nordic United Bank: The Federal Reserve may implement yield curve control to deal with the U.S. debt crisis

As the market generally expects, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Both the policy statement and the press conference emphasized that employment faces downward risks in the future. Chairman Powell pointed out that in the context of the current low employment rate, if the number of unemployment continues to increase, it will likely lead to higher unemployment rates. Policy discussions still focus on immigration issues, and the labor market supply side has been described as very weak. Although the adjustment range of economic forecasts is limited, it is worth noting that while the unemployment rate expectations are slightly revised downward and inflation expectations are slightly revised upward, the median interest rate forecast has declined. We should not over-interpret this phenomenon, but this may be regarded as a signal that the Fed's tolerance for inflation is slightly higher.

A member in the dot map expects to cut interest rates five more times this year. Although it is impossible to confirm that this is the prediction of the new xm-forex.commissioner Milan, as a representative of the Trump administration's clear support for a significant rate cut, his position deserves attention. At the same time, it is necessary to note that the dot map distribution is extremely scattered, and some members even expected that interest rates should be raised this year. Although the Fed's attitude is slightly dovish, it is far from meeting the policy shift expected by the market based on weak employment data. xm-forex.compared with the Federal Open Market xm-forex.committee's forecast, we are more concerned about the upward risks of inflation. Given the strengthening of low immigration and deportation policies, coupled with the steady growth of GDP, we believe that the upward risks of unemployment are limited.

The deeper problem lies in the extent to which the current administration has influenced central bank decisions. When asked about Milan’s “third mission should include moderate long-term interest rates” on Tuesday, Powell responded that this was seen as a natural extension of the dual goal rather than an independent goal. Extreme situationsNext, this may be interpreted as implementing yield curve control through large-scale quantitative easing to cope with the U.S. Treasury trust crisis. xm-forex.combined with Milan's previous policy proposals against the weak dollar, this strategy seems particularly dangerous. Although this is an extreme situation, another extreme may be that high inflation and low unemployment rates coexist, which ultimately forces the Fed to restart interest rate hikes.

Swedish Nordic Bank: Looking back on the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution, Powell withstands political pressure

The Federal Reserve cut interest rate by 25 basis points as scheduled. FOMC's median forecast for policy interest rates was downgraded by 25 basis points throughout the forecast period. This shows that the Fed confirmed the market's expectations for three rate cuts this year, but suggests that the pace of rate cuts will be more gradual than expected from now on (a rate cut next year, xm-forex.compared with two). Inflation forecasts have been raised this year, but remain unchanged in 2026. Growth forecasts were raised, and the unemployment rate forecast was unexpectedly lowered by 0.1 percentage point from next year's forecast. In other words, although the Fed expects GDP to grow trendily, core inflation continues to rise above its target level, and unemployment will stabilize and gradually decline, they still plan to lower policy interest rates to "neutral". Inflation forecasts continue to reflect temporary tariff effects, which is a prerequisite for the central bank to "penetrate" the impact of tariffs and focus on slowing the labor market.

After the interest rate resolution was announced, the policy-sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 7 basis points, and the euro against the US dollar rose above 1.19 in the short term - but all volatility was given back during the press conference. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell obviously withstood the political pressure and once again emphasized that the risk of tariffs that may lead to continued high inflation cannot be ruled out, and this situation needs to be "responsive". The disappointment in the market is obvious.

IGM Group: The "selling facts" market is short, and the euro, the long defense line, is still stable. Although the Fed's interest rate cut as scheduled triggers the "selling facts" market, we believe that this is only temporary, because the euro broke through a four-year high against the US dollar, indicating that the long-term upward trend started from the low of 1.0141 on February 3, 2025 has not changed. Currently, many institutions predict that the ECB is more likely to raise interest rates in the next step (as early as June next year) rather than cut interest rates. Recently, many management xm-forex.committees have emphasized that interest rate cuts will not be further cut unless economic data deteriorates, which is differentiated from the Fed's policy path. In addition, the market may underestimate the Fed's interest rate cut - Milan advocates a more radical easing stance may indicate a policy shift. This policy gap will continue to support the euro to form a higher trading range between 1.17-1.20.
In specific technical aspects, the euro and the US dollar have recently broken through the downward trend line connecting the January 1 high of 1.1829 and the July 24 high of 1.1789, confirming that the bulls regained their dominance. Although the euro has seen a technical correction after rising to its four-year high of 1. on September 17, the decline is expected to gain support near the 50-day moving average (1.1665), with a lower chance of falling below the August 27 low of 1.1574. The upward target is expected to reach a low of 1.1975 on June 25, 2021, and finallyWe hope to recover all the declines of 0.9536-1.2349 from 2021 to 2022.
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The Bank of England continues to be cautious when it remains calm! Differences between investment banks and market expectations

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Dutch International Bank: Doves can't support the interest rate cut agenda, and the Bank of England will have little to turn around X months ago

Nordic United Bank: The Federal Reserve may implement yield curve control to deal with the U.S. debt crisis

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CATEGORIES

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market analysis

The Bank of England continues to be cautious when it remains calm! Differences between investment banks and market expectations

Asian market market

Summary of institutional views

Dutch International Bank: Doves can't support the interest rate cut agenda, and the Bank of England will have little to turn around X months ago

Nordic United Bank: The Federal Reserve may implement yield curve control to deal with the U.S. debt crisis

Swedish Nordic Bank: Looking back on the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution, Powell withstands political pressure

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