US-India trade negotiations are active, waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates, gold prices hit above 3,700

Basic news

On Wednesday (September 17 Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,693.70/ounce, and gold prices hit a historical high to $3,702.93/ounce on Tuesday, as the market bets that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this week, driving gold prices to continue to rise under the help of safe-haven demand, central banks buying and weakening of the US dollar. U.S. crude oil trading was around $64.61/barrel, oil prices rose on Tuesday, traders weighed the possibility that Ukrainian drone attacks Russian ports and refineries could lead to a disruption in Russia's supply, and were waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.

Focus on this day

Bank of Canada Governor McClum and Senior Vice Governor Rogers held a press conference on monetary policy.

Stock Market

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower in fluctuating trading on Tuesday, and investors remained cautious before the Fed could cut interest rates. Investors generally still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at a two-day meeting ending Wednesday to cope with the deterioration in the U.S. job market as shown by several recent economic indicators.

Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, but failed to change the market's expectations of interest rate cuts.

BairdPrivateWealthManagement investment strategist Ross Mayfield said, "Any data showing economic resilience will only make hawks in the Federal Open Market xm-forex.committee (FOMC) more firm and may provide some reasons for (Federal Chairman) Powell to make his statement slightly hawkish than market expectations."

U.S. SenateThe nomination for White House economic adviser Milan to serve as Fed director was confirmed, and the appeals court rejected Trump's request to remove Fed director Cook, which investors did not pay much attention to.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.27% to close at 45,757.90 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.13% to close at 6,606.76 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.07% to close at 22,333.96 points.

Six of the S&P 500 index closed lower, with the utility sector falling by 1.81% and the real estate sector falling by 0.66%. The Cboe volatility index rose to a high of more than a week to 16.04 points.

United Health Group fell 2.3%, while Nvidia fell 1.6%, dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new closes on Monday, after several trading days hitting intraday highs. All three major indexes have recorded gains so far in September, although September has traditionally been seen as a weaker month for U.S. stocks.

Gold market

Gold prices broke through $3,700 per ounce for the first time on Tuesday as the market bets on the Fed's interest rate cut this week, driving gold prices to continue to rise under the aid of safe-haven demand, buying from central banks and weakening the dollar.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,690.59 per ounce, and had hit a record high of $3,702.95 earlier in the session. US December gold futures rose 0.2% to $3,727.50.

Analyst Zain Vawda, MarketPulse, OANDA, said uncertainty and geopolitical risks in global economic growth continue to support demand for hedging, but the rise in gold prices is mainly driven by market expectations of the Fed's aggressive interest rate cut.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are almost sure the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at a two-day meeting ending on September 17, with a small number of bets on 50 basis points.

U.S. President Trump called on social media on Monday to cut interest rates “larger”. In low interest rate environments, interest-free gold usually performs better. The dollar index fell to more than two-month lows, and the weakening of the dollar made gold more attractive to holders of other currencies.

Independent metals trader TaiWong said gold prices soared due to a sharp weakening of the dollar, which has fallen to its low since July, but the market may be cautious before the Fed announces its key decision, so it should not be surprising that some profit settlements occur. As a traditional tool to hedge uncertainty, gold has risen about 41% so far this year.

In other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.2% to $42.64 per ounce, hitting a new high since September 2011 earlier in the session; platinum fell 0.5% to $1,394.00 per ounce; palladium fell 0.5% to $1,178.14 per ounce.

Oil market

Oil prices rose more than one dollar per barrel on Tuesday, asTraders weighed the possibility that Ukrainian drone attacks Russian ports and refineries could cause Russian supply disruptions and awaited the Federal Reserve's decision on U.S. interest rates.

Brent crude oil futures closed up 1.5% to $68.47 a barrel. U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.9% to close at $64.52 a barrel.

Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has warned producers that they may have to cut production after Ukraine uses drones to attack important export ports and refineries.

Ukraine has stepped up its attack on Russia's energy infrastructure in recent weeks, and last week, Ukrainian attacks disrupted the operations of Primorsk, a key oil terminal in western Russia, amid a deadlock in negotiations to end the conflict.

JPM analysts said, "The attacks on export terminals like Primorsk are more to limit Russia's ability to sell oil abroad and affect the export market."

Goldman Sachs estimates that the Ukrainian attacks have caused about 300,000 barrels per day to lose Russia's refining capacity in August and this month. Investors will also pay attention to the Fed's September 16-17 meeting. The Fed is expected to lower interest rates, which will stimulate the economy and increase fuel demand. However, analysts are cautious about the health of the U.S. economy.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar fell across the board on Tuesday, hitting a four-year low against the euro, and investors firmed their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut this week.

The euro rose 0.9% against the dollar, hitting its highest since September 2021 at $1.1867. The dollar index fell 0.7%, hitting its lowest since July 1, of 96.636.

The dollar has stabilized in recent months after a sharp decline earlier this year, but the dollar has once again faced selling pressure as market expectations for the Fed to resume rate cuts heat up and U.S. President Trump once again called for radical easing policies.

The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, with the rapid softening of labor market data being the main driving factor for the increase in interest rate cut bets in recent weeks.

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said: "The dollar fell sharply across the board, investors are ready to welcome Wednesday's voting record, economic forecast summary 'dot chart' and dovish information in the press conference."

The Federal Reserve will issue a policy statement at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, and Chairman Powell will then preside over the press conference. "Powell and his colleagues are expected to downplay inflation risks and express clear tendencies to support the labor market, which could create conditions for consecutive interest rate cuts in the xm-forex.coming months - traders are adjusting positions to prepare for asymmetric trends in most major currency pairs," Schamotta said. "The data showed that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, but hardly gave the dollar a breather." The weak labor market and import tariffs lead toAs xm-forex.commodity prices rise, investors remain concerned about U.S. economic growth.

The pound rose 0.5% against the dollar, hitting its highest for more than two months at $1.366. The UK job market lost more momentum, which could ease the Bank of England’s concerns over continued inflationary pressure, data on Tuesday showed.

National Office of Statistics shows that the number of business employment fell for the seventh consecutive month in August, with the private sector, which the Bank of England closely watched, slowing to 4.7% for the three months to July, and a 4.8% increase in June. Following the August rate cut, the Bank of England is expected to remain silent this week.

The euro gained some support on Tuesday. Previous data showed an increase in industrial production in the euro zone in July, confirming the view that industries in the region are still growing despite the extremely slow expansion despite the trade tensions.

ZEW research institute said on Tuesday that German investor confidence rose unexpectedly in September, showing cautious optimism.

The dollar hit a one-month low against the yen earlier, with New York falling 0.7% to 146.35 yen at the end of the trading day. The Bank of Japan will hold a policy meeting on Friday, and the money market is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Jinjiro Koizumi and Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Lin Fangmasato joined the ruling party leader on Tuesday, promising to run for the election in a vote early next month to replace outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

International News

Russian Petroleum Transportation xm-forex.company issued a report denied restricting the import of oil from producers

Russian Petroleum Transportation xm-forex.company (Transneft) denied reports that it may significantly restrict the receipt of crude oil from producers in the near future, and called such news "fake news." "Transneft had to issue the following statement in response to information released by international news agency Reuters that suggests that it may significantly limit the receipt of crude oil from producers in the near future. The release of such false information from anonymous sources in the Russian energy industry has damaged Transneft's reputation. These reports are attempts to destabilize the situation in the context of the ongoing information war on Russia," the statement said. "Previously, Reuters quoted sources as saying that Transneft has allegedly restricted the ability of oil xm-forex.companies to store oil in its pipeline systems in recent days and warned producers that it may have to import less oil from them.

The U.S. Republicans announced a draft expedient spending bill betting that Democrats are unable to block legislation passing

U.S. House Republicans have announced a draft interim appropriations bill to continue to maintain the government after October 1. They have not included the Democratic health care policies required by the Democrats, betting that the party is unable to block the bill's passage. The short-term bill will keep federal agencies in operation until Nov. 21, with a new round of funding for security for members of Congress, the judicial system and executive officials after the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk last week.The bill requires at least seven Senate Democrats to vote in favor, and reaching the 60-vote threshold can overcome procedural obstacles. Although Trump has publicly called on Republicans to unite in support of the interim appropriation bill, Republicans have little advantage in the House of Representatives over Democrats, and if all Democrats oppose it, the bill may be difficult to pass in the House of Representatives. The bill plans to provide $30 million for lawmakers to xm-forex.compensate local police security spending, $30 million for executive security, and $28 million for judicial system security.

The U.S. government plans to establish an overseas mining project fund with Orion. The U.S. government is discussing with investment xm-forex.company Orion Resource Partners to establish a multi-billion-dollar overseas mining project fund. According to people familiar with the matter, the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and New York-based Orion will each invest $600 million or more in the new fund, with potential other sovereign investors and U.S. government agencies likely to participate. The fund will invest in mining projects for key minerals such as copper and rare earths, which are crucial to national defense and high-tech manufacturing.

The United States and India restarted trade negotiations, both sides said the talks were "positive"

The United States and India said that trade negotiators from both sides held "positive" talks in New Delhi on Tuesday. Both sides are seeking to ease tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on India last month. After one-day talks, the Indian government said in a statement that the two countries agreed to "strengthen their efforts" to reach a trade deal. The statement said the discussion "is positive and future-oriented and covers all aspects of the trade agreement." The U.S. Embassy in New Delhi said in another statement that U.S. Assistant Trade Representative Brendan Lynch held a "active meeting" with India's chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal to discuss future steps in bilateral trade negotiations. The two countries are seeking to resolve their differences after Trump imposed the highest tariffs on India in Asia to punish its trade barriers and purchase Russian oil. Another team of U.S. defense officials and Boeing executives will also arrive in India this week to negotiate a sale of a naval reconnaissance aircraft worth about $4 billion.

The EU and Indonesia reach a trade agreement

The EU and Indonesia have concluded negotiations on a trade agreement and plan to sign the agreement next week. Both sides are accelerating their efforts to reduce their dependence on the United States. Officials in Brussels and Jakarta said European xm-forex.commission Vice President Sevjovich plans to go to Indonesia to sign the agreement on September 23. U.S. President Trump's import tariffs accelerate negotiations. Washington has forced Jakarta to fully accept the 19% tariff rate, and also forced Brussels to agree to the 15% tariff rate for most products.

International Energy Agency: Global spends $540 billion a year to find oil

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that as the decline in existing oil fields accelerates, it will be by 205In 0 years, the world will spend about $540 billion a year on oil and gas to maintain current production. Fatih Birol, executive director of the agency, said the accelerated decline means that the global oil and gas industry "must be faster to stay the same." Without investment, the decline in global oil supply would be equivalent to the xm-forex.combined daily output of Norway and Brazil - more than 5 million barrels per year.

Federal Muffler: Powell's attitude toward the job market this week may indicate the future policy direction

The latest article by Nick Timiraos: "The Fed's rate cut this week is basically a foregone conclusion, and investors will focus on whether Powell will further advance his recent stance shift. Investors will pay close attention to a key message: whether Powell and his colleagues will set the total rate cuts this year at three times, or maintain expectations in June (at that time the job market seemed more stable, with a few Send officials to cut interest rates twice)? Last month, in a highly-watched speech, Powell's concerns about the job market exceeded some of his colleagues' concerns about inflation at the time. The question now is: Will Powell further strengthen this concern after the release of the weak non-farm employment report in August? If he does this, it will confirm the market's expectations of "continue interest rate cuts in the next few meetings", but it may also need to overcome some colleagues' concerns - these colleagues have doubts about "neutral interest rates" and "whether interest rates should be adjusted to neutral levels", and do not I am willing to promise such a rapid policy shift.

Domestic News

my country's innovative drugs are accelerating! Policies work together to open up the "last mile" of hospitalization

Since this year, good news in the field of innovative drugs in my country have been frequently reported, and dozens of original innovative drugs have been approved for marketing one after another. However, it often takes ten years or even longer for a new drug from research and development to market. From exploration in the laboratory, to clinical verification involving thousands of patients, to strict approval, innovative drugs must overcome many difficulties. From target discovery to review and approval, one pill is created The "road to market" of new drugs has a total cost of over US$1 billion. Data shows that from January to July this year, the National Medical Products Administration has approved 50 innovative drugs, exceeding 48 of last year's total. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the National Medical Products Administration approved 210 innovative drugs, maintaining an accelerated growth trend. In addition, my country ranks among the world's leading in the number of innovative drug pipelines and clinical trial projects, and pharmaceutical innovation has maintained a strong momentum.

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