Russian oil pipeline giant restricts oil storage, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 16

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.02%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.22%. The German DAX index fell 0.54%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.26%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.15%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.16%.

2. Market news interpretation

Russian oil pipeline giants restrict oil storage, and output may be affected by the "fastest effective sanctions"

⑴ Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft is limiting oil storage in its system and has warned oil producers that it may have to cut production due to a series of Ukraine's drone attacks on key export ports and refineries. ⑵ Ukraine has escalated its attack on Russian energy facilities since August, aiming to hinder the Russian war process and cut its revenue stream, which could force Russia, which accounts for 9% of global oil production, to eventually cut production. ⑶ Ukrainian drones hit at least 10 refineries, once cutting nearly one-fifth of Russia's refining capacity and damaging its major Baltic ports, such as Ustiluga and the Marina Port. ⑷ Although Russian authorities have not publicly xm-forex.commented on the extent of the loss, Transneft, as the handler of more than 80% of Russia's oil production, has limited the ability of oil xm-forex.companies to store oil in their pipeline systems and said that if infrastructure is further damaged, it may be forced to accept less oil. ⑸ The attack poses a serious challenge to Russian oil production and exports, especially considering that Russia is not like the major OPEC productionThe country has a large capacity for oil storage, which may put it in a situation of decline in production. ⑹Institutional analysis pointed out that Russia's ability to increase production is threatened by limited storage capacity, and the suspension of refineries will also drag down production due to congestion in crude oil. However, Asian buyers still have demand for Russian crude oil, and production is expected to fall only moderately.

Japan opposes U.S. demands that it is difficult to increase taxes due to importing Russian oil

Japanese Finance Minister refuted the U.S. appeal to impose higher tariffs on India, which imports Russian oil. Treasury Secretary Kato Kato told reporters on Tuesday: "Japan has made a xm-forex.commitment within the framework of the World Trade Organization that it will not impose tariffs that exceed the prescribed ceiling and treat all member states fairly if other member states xm-forex.comply with the WTO obligations." He added: "It is difficult for us to raise tariffs to, for example, 50% just because a certain country imports oil from Russia."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent declined to xm-forex.comment on the report that "he has disagreements with another official in the Trump administration." Instead, he joked about a famous duel between the former U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent Bescent, who is in a department "has always had a tradition of fighting." The Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) asked Becente if he had a conflict with Bill Pulte, a senior official in charge of housing finance at the Trump administration. "Since Alexander Hamilton, U.S. Treasury Secretary has a history of 'duel'." According to a report by the US political news website Politico earlier this month, Pulte allegedly slandered Bester in front of the president, and Bestere threatened to "duel" with Pulte.

The UK will deploy fighter jets in NATO's eastern wing, and the British army said it will shoot down Russian drones if necessary

The UK will deploy "Typhoon" fighter jets in NATO's eastern wing operation. The Polish National Security Agency announced on social media that Polish President Navrodsky has signed a resolution to agree to the military forces of NATO member states stationed in Polish territory. The specific arrangements and details of the entry decision shall not be disclosed. The British Ministry of Defense said that the RAF's Typhoon fighter will participate in the "Oriental Sentinel" operation launched by NATO, which is expected to set off in the next few days, and will then carry out flight missions over Poland, and will receive support from the "Voyager" air tanker at the Blaze Norton base of the British Air Force. Allied aircraft participating in the operation include Denmark's F-16 fighter jets, France's Rafale fighter jets and Germany's Typhoon fighter jets, which will provide reinforcements for the Netherlands' F-35 and Poland's F-16 fighter jets.

Africa's largest wireless operator increases investment in AI infrastructure to build data centers

Mupita, CEO of MTN Group, Africa's largest wireless operator, said in an interview that the group is negotiating with xm-forex.companies in the United States and Europe to plan to build data centers on the African continent.Artificial intelligence services provide power. Mupita said the group will directly fund some of the investment needed to expand AI data centers on the African continent and is currently in discussions with potential global partners. Its plan is to build data center facilities and sign tenants to provide AI xm-forex.computing services, and then rent out xm-forex.computing power to other businesses and governments on the continent. The group is also considering equipping data centers with its own hardware. MTN has begun building its first data center in Nigeria with an estimated cost of US$240 million.

The Spanish government and central bank raise their economic growth forecast for 2025

Spanish Economic Minister Carlos Cuerpo said that Spain's GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, higher than the previous 2.6% forecast. The Bank of Spain predicts that the country's economy will grow by 2.6%, up from the 2.4% forecast in June and higher than the 1.2% growth forecast for the 20 countries in the euro zone. Since 2021, Spain's economy has been outperforming other major European economies, supported by household spending, tourism recovery and energy prices. However, despite domestic demand increasing from three months ago, the Bank of Spain still stressed that its benchmark expectations are still affected to some extent by multiple factors including the euro exchange rate. In terms of inflation, the Bank of Spain also raised its inflation expectations at the end of the year to 2.5%, saying that the rise in inflation is mainly due to rising energy and food prices, while inflation in the service industry may be lower than expected. The bank expects Spanish inflation to slow to 1.7% in 2026.

The economic prosperity of the euro zone exceeded expectations and rebounded labor costs rose simultaneously with industrial production

⑴ The euro zone's ZEW economic prosperity index rose 1 point month-on-month to 26.1, higher than the market expectations of 20.3. ⑵About 51.7% of the analysts surveyed expect economic activity to remain stable, with 37.2% expected improvement and 11.1% expected deterioration. ⑶ The current economic situation indicator rose by 2.4 points to -28.8, and the inflation expectations indicator rose by 3.3 points to -3.4. ⑷ The euro zone's hourly labor costs rose 3.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, slightly lower than the preliminary estimate of 3.7%, but higher than the previous quarter's 3.4%. ⑸Wages and wages increased by 3.7% (3.5% in the first quarter) and non-wage costs increased by 3.4% (3.2% before). ⑹Labor costs in the xm-forex.commercial economy sector increased by 4.0%, with construction (+4.7%), services (+4.3%) and industry (+3.3%) leading the rise. ⑺The non-commercial economic sector grew by 2.7%. Germany's labor costs grew to 3.5% (2.5% in the first quarter), while the Netherlands rose to 6.0% (5.9% in the previous value). ⑻Spain maintained a 3.7% growth rate, Italy slowed to 3.8% (previous value of 4.4%), and France fell to 1.4% (previous value of 2.0%). ⑼Eurozone's industrial output increased by 0.3% month-on-month in July, reversing the 0.6% decline after the previous value correction, which is basically consistent with the market's expected 0.4% increase. ⑽Capital product output rebounded sharply (1.3%, previous value -0.8%), and durable consumer goods (1.1% vs -0.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (1.5% vs -4.2%) rebounded simultaneously. ⑾The output of intermediate products continued to grow by 0.5% (previous value of 0.1%), the fastest growth rate since March; energy product output fell by 2.9% (previous value of 1.4%). ⑿In July, industrial output increased by 1.8% year-on-year, significantly accelerating from the 0.7% growth rate in June.

The Israeli army continues to advance military operations to prevent the Secretary of Defense: Hamas will destroy Gaza without disarming

On the 16th local time, after the Israeli Defense Forces began a large-scale ground offensive against Gaza City, Minister of Defense Katz said that if Hamas does not release the detained personnel and disarm, the Gaza Strip will be destroyed. Katz said during a visit to the xm-forex.command center of the 162nd Division stationed in Gaza City, "We want to control Gaza City because it is now the main symbol of Hamas' rule over Gaza. If Gaza City falls today, they will fall." The Israel Defense Force issued a statement on the morning of the 16th saying that the two divisions of the Israeli army were fighting in Gaza City, and the Israeli general staff chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, has entered the war zone. The statement said that after the recent preparation strike, the Israeli army entered the ground attack stage in Gaza City in the early morning of the 16th, and has expanded its xm-forex.combat operations to the central area of ​​Gaza City. According to the Israeli Jerusalem Post earlier on the 16th, the Israeli Defense Forces have "invaded" Gaza City. According to reports, Israeli tanks have entered Gaza City. Hamas has no response to the above statement yet.

The growth rate of housing prices in the UK slows down

⑴ The UK real estate market has ushered in a turning point. Many institutions predict that the growth rate of housing prices in the UK and London will slow down xm-forex.compared with previous expectations, bringing better affordability for first-time home buyers. The latest survey shows that up to 92% of respondents believe that the affordability of first-time home buyers will be improved. ⑵ Although the Bank of England has cut interest rates several times, the market is concerned that the British Chancellor may increase taxes in the recent budget to make up for the fiscal gap, and the weakening of the momentum of the job market. Under the collective action, UK housing prices are expected to rise by 2.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, a significant decline xm-forex.compared with May's forecast (3.5% and 4.0% respectively). ⑶ Especially in London, the expected increase in housing prices has also been lowered from 3.0% and 4.0% forecast in May to 1.9% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. Analysts pointed out that policy attitudes towards wealth creators and potential tax adjustments to high-net-worth individuals may affect domestic and foreign investors' willingness to invest their funds into the London market, thus putting certain pressure on local housing prices.

German bond yields soar, European economic confidence has recovered!

⑴ Germany's 10-year government bond yield rose after the data was released on Tuesday (Beijing time), with the latest 2.702%, up from 2.685% of the 0.7 basis points before the data was released. ⑵ European economic confidence indicators show positive signals, Germany ZEThe W economic prosperity index recorded 37.3 in September, up from 34.7 in August. ⑶ The performance of the economic prosperity index far exceeded analysts' expectations, and analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal generally expected the data to be 26.3. ⑷ Changes in market sentiment indicate that investors' views on the outlook for Europe are changing, which may affect subsequent trading strategies.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1804, an increase of 0.36%. Before New York, the price of (EUR/USD) soared on the last trading day, breaking through the key resistance level of 1.1785, which was our previously recommended target, supported by its ongoing trading above the EMA50 and dominated by bullish trends and bias lines on a short-term basis, and in addition, negative overlap signals appearing on the relative strength indicators, which may reduce upcoming earnings.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3641, an increase of 0.31%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price closed higher on the last trading day, confirming its successful breakthrough of the key resistance level of 1.3585, supported by continued trading above the EMA50 and trading along a supportive slash led by a major short-term bullish trend.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3693.31, an increase of 0.40%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price rose slightly on its last trading day, supported by its trading above the EMA50, and its main bullish trend dominated, with its trading accompanied by a slight deviation on the short-term basis. In addition, after successfully getting rid of the overbought state, positive signals appeared in the relative strength indicators, opening up the way for more returns.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 42.825, an increase of 0.41%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (silver) rose on the last trading day, thanks to its successful escape from the overbought situation of the relative strength indicators, opening the way to target new levels of resistance, especially when positive signals appear there. Under the continued negative pressure from trading above the EMA50, and under the dominant bullish trend on a short-term basis and trading along supportive slashes.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 63.920, up 1.01%. Before the New York market, crude oil prices fell in the last day trading, due to the negative pressure of the stable resistance of US$62.85, and also touching the resistance of EMA50, exacerbating the negative pressure. Dominant by the main bearish trend in the short term, its trading level is accompanied by the tilt line, reducing the possibility of a rebound in the short term.

4. Institutional View

Dutch International: The US dollar is likely to remain relatively weak this week

Dutch International Group stated in a research report that the US dollar is likely to remain relatively weak. The report pointed out that the US dollar's performance at a weak start this week, which may be related to the market's advance layout for the expected Fed interest rate cut later this week. Dutch International Group said that the weakening of the US dollar is also affected by a moderate external environment. In the double, corporate confidence remains resilient and core borrowing costs are expected to decline Under heavy influence, global stock markets continued to rise slightly. The report reads. Normally, this situation will prompt capital to flow into risky assets and non-dollar markets, thereby reducing investors' demand for safe-haven currencies, the U.S. dollar. Dutch International said the market's focus on Tuesday will be on U.S. retail sales data.

ANZ: Bank of Japan may keep policy interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year

Tom Kenny, senior international economist at ANZ Research Department, said in the report that the Bank of Japan's remaining time this year The policy interest rate can be kept unchanged. He pointed out that the increasing uncertainty of the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy, coupled with the uncertainty of Japan's domestic political situation, may keep the Bank of Japan still unchanged by next year. The last rate hike of the Bank was in early 2025. Kenny said that one of the main reasons for the central bank's suspension of interest rate hikes was that it lowered its inflation expectations for fiscal 2026, which is currently below the 2% price stability target. This shows that members of the central bank's policy xm-forex.committee have declined their confidence in achieving their mission of price stability, he added. The Bank has postponed the Bank of Japan's 25 basis points rate hike expectations from October 2025 to January 2026.

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: Russian oil pipeline giant restricts oil storage, analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange short-term trends on September 16". It was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!

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