OPEC+ production increase impacts the market, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 4

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.44%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.56%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.79%. The German DAX index rose 1.11%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.41%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.86%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 1.29%.

2. Market news interpretation

OPEC+ increased production impacted the market, Indian buyers rushed to buy US and Canadian crude oil, and the trend of the oil market suddenly changed

⑴OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which is the latest round of accelerated production increase actions. ⑵This move caused the benchmark prices of Middle East crude oil in Oman and Dubai to fall slightly on Monday. ⑶ Despite the increase in supply, the market is still supported by strong demand in Asia. ⑷ India's largest refiner purchased 7 million barrels of September delivery of crude oil through tenders, including 4.5 million barrels of U.S. crude and 500,000 barrels of Canadian crude. ⑸ Some Indian refiners have reduced Russian oil purchases due to threats from the United States, thus increasing purchases from other sources. ⑹Indian government sources said that India will continue to buy oil from Russia. ⑺ Market participants are waiting for the announcement of Saudi Arabia's official selling price in September. ⑻In addition, BP announced the discovery of new oil and gas resources in the Santos Basin, Brazil. ⑼Saudi chemical xm-forex.company SABIC reported another unexpected quarterly loss due to industry slowdown and business restructuring.

Swiss manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in July and shrank for 31 consecutive months

⑴ Switzerland's manufacturing PMI fell from 49.6 in June to 48.8, lower than the market expectations of 49.9. ⑵ Output (49.6), order backlog (43.9) and procurement volume (43.0) indicators declined, but procurement prices (50.7) and employment (48.9) rebounded in sub-items. ⑶ Surveys show that nearly half of manufacturers expect trade protection policies to increase in the next year, and about one-third of xm-forex.companies have encountered such measures in the past year.

Eurozone bond yields remained stable, investors remained vigilant about the outlook for U.S. policy

Eurozone bond yields remained stable on Monday, setting their biggest single-week decline in two months last week, while U.S. Treasury yields fell after non-farm employment data led to a surge in the Fed's interest rate cut bets in September. Data released last Friday showed that the growth rate of non-farm jobs in the United States in July was lower than expected, and the increase in the first two months was significantly lowered by 258,000, which led the market to reassess the possibility of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. U.S. President Trump also fired the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the same day, accusing her of falsifying employment data. The 10-year German bond yield rose about 1 basis point at the beginning of the session to 2.685%, down 3.9 basis points last week, the largest single-week decline since the end of May. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a three-month low of around 4.24%, and the interest rate spread between U.S. and German bonds remained at around 155.6 basis points, close to the narrowest level since early April. Money market shows that traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, with the next one likely in September, while the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates for the time being, with the two-year yield of German bonds flat at 1.911%.

The credibility of US monetary and economic decision-makers has cracks. The US dollar and US assets are at risk of selling

Strategists and economists say that due to the threat of the credibility of US currencies and economic institutions, the US dollar and other US assets are at risk of further selling. U.S. President Donald Trump now has the opportunity to pick her replacement after Fed Director Adriana Kugler resigned last Friday, and the resulting changes could undermine Chairman Jerome Powell's influence. Coupled with Trump's firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Director Erika McEntarfer last week, investors may lower their valuations of U.S. assets due to threats to economic data and monetary policy independence. Such concerns have hurt the dollar this year and have prompted some funds to withdraw from U.S. bonds and stocks.

The strike of Boeing workers dragged down the production and maintenance of many US fighter jets Boeing executives: fewer people than last time

On August 4, local time, workers in Boeing's factory in St. Louis, Missouri officially started a strike. There were about 3,200 workers on strike, and the reason for the strike was that he was dissatisfied with the salary increase plan given by Boeing. According to the website of the US media "Business Insider" revealed that the Boeing factory in St. Louis is mainly used to produce and maintain the F-15 fighter jets and F/A-18 fighter jets currently used by the US military. The strike of workers at the factory will inevitably have a negative impact on the maintenance and production activities of the US military's fighter jets.. Boeing CEO Kelly Otterberg recently mentioned the impact of the strike by workers in Boeing factory in St. Louis at a financial report meeting and said he was not very worried about the impact of the strike. But the reason he gave was that the strike was "an order of magnitude less" than the larger strike involving 30,000 workers last fall.

Non-agricultural data ignited the risk of August events. Jackson Hall annual meeting became the focus.

Analyst Divyang Shah said that the US non-agricultural employment report in July was not only lower than expected, but also accompanied by a significant correction of the previous value. But this is not a typical recession signal, but more like the economy is stagnating under the influence of tariffs, waiting for policy uncertainty to fade away. The biggest impact of the data lies in rekindling the Fed's expectation of a rate cut - the September and October meetings are once again possible: the current market pricing probability of a rate cut in September is 80%, and it exceeds 75% in October. Previously, the FOMC meeting in December had been taken into consideration, and the probability of interest rate cuts has risen to 80%. Originally, August should have been a month with low volatility, but now it seems that major events are xm-forex.coming one after another, with the next inflation report being particularly critical, and the more important one is the Jackson Hall Central Bank Annual Meeting.

Oil and gas giants bet on Brazil: BP has made its biggest discovery in 25 years. Can it help it return to its peak?

⑴BP discovered oil and gas offshore Brazil, which is probably the xm-forex.company's largest exploration discovery in 25 years. ⑵This discovery is in line with the xm-forex.company's upstream strategy to return to fossil fuels, aiming to increase production from 2.3 million barrels in 2024 to 2.5 million barrels in 2030. ⑶BP owns 100% of the interest in the block, but will still conduct further analysis of exploration well data to evaluate its potential. ⑷ Analysts believe that this finding is exciting and will provide the xm-forex.company with a high-quality growth asset lacking under its new strategy. ⑸ This is the 10th exploration discovery of BP in 2025.

Modi said India must protect its own economic interests

Indian Prime Minister Modi recently said at a rally in Uttar Pradesh that India must protect its own economic interests in the context of multiple uncertainties in the global economy. Indian media reported that Modi's remarks on August 2 may be intended to respond to previous US President Trump's claim that India is a "death economy." Modi said that the Indian government's top priorities include protecting farmers' welfare and protecting small industries. It is reported that the United States and India have held several rounds of trade negotiations recently, but India has been refusing to give tariff preferences to the United States' agriculture and dairy industries, which is a key requirement put forward by the United States in the negotiations. In addition, Modi also launched an initiative to promote India's "domestic products".

Unprecedented! Japan's minimum hourly wage may soar by 6%. Is it a stimulus to consume or kill small businesses? A report shows that a group of Japan's Ministry of Labor proposed to raise the national average minimum hourly wage by 6% this fiscal year. ⑵This will be the biggest increase since at least 2002, with an average minimum hourly wage rising to 1,118 yen. ⑶ Realizing real wage growth has become JapanThe primary policy task is to fight ongoing inflation. ⑷ However, a substantial salary increase poses a risk to Japanese SMEs, which employ about 70% of the labor force. ⑸ xm-forex.compared with large enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises allocate a larger proportion of their profits to their wages, making it more difficult to digest further wage increases. ⑹ The Prime Minister has promised to raise the average minimum hourly wage to 1,500 yen by the end of this decade.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1579, a drop of 0.08%. Before New York, the price of (Euro-USD) fluctuated on the last trading day in an attempt to gain bullish momentum, which may help it surpass the negative pressure around it, the first stress factor is its ongoing trading below the EMA50, which after reaching overbought levels, negative signals appear on (RSI), trying to get rid of this oversold state and build up its positive power, which may help it break through the current resistance level of 1.1575.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3300, an increase of 0.14%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose in the last trading session, taking advantage of the positive signals on the (RSI) to form a strong bullish correction wave at the intraday level, after a sharp rise at the end of last week's trading, attacking the small bearish bias line on a short-term basis and preparing to attack the key resistance level 1.3300, while the price is still under negative pressure from trading below the EMA50, which may reduce its upcoming gains.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3365.94, an increase of 0.08%. Before the New York market, the (gold) price rose in the last session, supported by its trading above the EMA50, which represents a dynamic support for strengthening the bullish track as it exits the bearish channel range limits its short-term trading, on the other hand, we noticed negative signals on the (RSI) that attempting to sell this overbought after it reaches overbought levels may reduce the final gains.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 37.190, an increase of 0.51%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price closed at the intraday level in the last intraday trading, retesting the key resistance of $37.30 with a positive signal from the (RSI) to reach an overbought level, indicating the positive momentum around it, accompanied by the short-termTesting bearish corrections to the trend line, negative pressure on its trading below the EMA50 continues, creating dynamic resistance to prevent the recent price rebound.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell and is now at 65.920, a drop of 2.08%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after the (crude oil) price hit the EMA50 resistance level in the early trading, after trying to abandon some obvious oversold conditions on (RSI), it forced it to rebound lower after trying to abandon some obvious oversold conditions on (RSI), succumbing to negative pressure, affected by the short-term negative technical pattern, represented by the head and shoulders pattern.

4. Institutional View

Mitsubishi UF: Traders pay attention to the possible secondary tariffs imposed by the United States on Russian oil exports

Mitsubishi UFE analysts said in a report that although OPEC+ production increases are a general expectation, it has exacerbated concerns about oversupply as trade tensions and slowing economic indicators cast shadows on the outlook for global demand. Oil prices fell last week as U.S. jobs data were weaker than expected. Still, market sentiment remains cautious, and traders are paying attention to the possible secondary tariffs that the U.S. may impose on Russian oil exports, especially on India.

UBS: U.S. economic data may deteriorate as tariffs increase

UBS strategists said in a report that U.S. economic data may deteriorate after U.S. weighted average tariffs climb from 16% to 19%. The United States announced last week that it would impose new tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Switzerland, Brazil and other countries, raising the weighted average tariff rate in the United States. The weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday could be a "warning bell for the market." Strategists say the data could worsen further as the full impact of tariffs becomes a reality. They said: "Employment growth is close to stagnation, which is consistent with the difficulty of economic growth."

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