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The US dollar hit a two-month high and the pound fell below the key moving average! PCE, can data rewritten the fate of pound and beauty?

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The US dollar hits a two-month high, and the pound falls below the key moving average! PCE, can the data rewrite the fate of the pound and the United States?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The GBP/USD attracted some buyers during the Asian trading session on Thursday (July 31), partially reversing the previous day’s decline to its lowest level since May 13, and is currently trading at 1.325, up 0.17%. Despite a slight rebound, unless there is a clear signal in the fundamental data, trading needs to be cautious. The small rebound indicates that the bulls lack sufficient confidence and it is difficult to drive the continued rise.

The impact of the strong US dollar

The US dollar index soared to a two-month high after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, and then consolidated above the two-month high, forming a direct suppression of the pound/dollar. The Fed's hawkish stance limits the dollar's correction space. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a post-conference press conference that he had no clear plans for a rate cut in September, strengthening market expectations for the strong US dollar. In addition, the U.S. macro data released on Wednesday performed strongly: private sector employment increased by 104,000 in July, and GDP grew by 3.0% in the second quarter, a significant improvement from the first quarter's contraction of 0.5%. These data support the rise of the US dollar and limit the upward potential of the pound/US dollar. At the same time, the uncertainty of the postponement of the Sino-US trade truce further supports the US dollar, which has the risk aversion attribute, reducing the possibility of its depreciation.

Downward pressure of the pound

The pound is facing significant downward pressure, mainly due to the strengthening of the market's expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25 basis points on August 7. This expectation weakens the attractiveness of the pound and may bring upward resistance to the pound/dollar currency. Investors should be cautious when making long bets or increasing their holdings.

Technical Analysis

From the Technical PerspectiveIn terms of degree, the GBP/USD fell below the 100-day EMA overnight, and this breakthrough is regarded as a key price for short traders, indicating that the market trend is short in the short term, increasing the risk of further downward.

Future Outlook

Investors should currently pay attention to the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data to be released later in the North American trading period. As the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, PCE data will have a significant impact on the US dollar price dynamics and may create short-term trading opportunities for GBP/USD currency.

Summary

While the pound/dollar rebounded slightly due to the temporary weakness of the dollar, the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy, strong U.S. economic data and the Bank of England's possible rate cut expectations have jointly limited the currency's upside potential. The technical side fell below the 100-day EMA further strengthened the bearish signal. Investors need to pay close attention to upcoming PCE data to capture short-term trading opportunities while staying cautious when longing GBP/USD.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: The US dollar hits a two-month high, and the pound falls below the key moving average! PCE, can the data rewrite the fate of the pound and the United States?", which was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Previous：The decline remains, and the euro bulls are waiting for a good opportunity to counterattack in September? Next：Fed hawkish signals suppress the rebound momentum of GBP/USD, short-term rebound is limited below the 1.33 mark

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The US dollar hit a two-month high and the pound fell below the key moving average! PCE, can data rewritten the fate of pound and beauty?

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market news

The US dollar hit a two-month high and the pound fell below the key moving average! PCE, can data rewritten the fate of pound and beauty?

Related News

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