Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Forex】--USD/RUB Analysis: Move Lower and Changing Trade Sentiment to Conside
- 【XM Market Analysis】--Dow Jones Forecast: Recovers on Friday After Massive Sello
- 【XM Forex】--GBP/USD Analysis: Bearish Trend Holds at 1.25 Support
- 【XM Market Review】--Coffee Arabica Weekly Forecast: Another Solid Pop Higher and
- 【XM Market Review】--USD/MXN Monthly Forecast: December 2024
market analysis
Eurozone Economic Recovery, Analysis of Short-Term Trends of Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Foreign Exchange on July 31
Wonderful Introduction:
I missed more in life than not, and everyone has missed countless times. So we don’t have to apologize for our misses, we should be happy for our own possession. Missing beauty, you have health: Missing health, you have wisdom; missing wisdom, you have kindness; missing kindness, you have wealth; missing wealth, you have xm-forex.comfort; missing xm-forex.comfort, you have freedom; missing freedom, you have personality...
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Eurozone Economic Recovery, Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Foreign Exchange Short-term Trend Analysis on July 31st". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market trends
U.S. stock futures rose sharply, S&P 500 futures rose 1.1%, and Dow Jones (44461.2812-171.71-0.38%) Industrial Average futures rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq (21129.67431.380.15%) 100 index futures, which account for a high proportion of technology stocks, jumped 1.5%.
2. Market news interpretation
The euro zone economic recovery, the European Central Bank may continue to remain calm
Barclays economists said that as the euro zone's economic performance in the second quarter was stronger than expected, the European Central Bank may now maintain interest rates for a longer time. Data released earlier this week showed that the eurozone's economy grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, breaking previous expectations of a regression in the economy. Barclays therefore raised its eurozone economic growth forecast this year from 0.8% to 1.1%. Against this backdrop, economists say the ECB will likely decide to keep interest rates at 2% at the next monetary policy meeting in September.
The US dollar is expected to achieve its first monthly increase since 2025
The US dollar is expected to achieve its first monthly increase since 2025 in July. This is due to the tough stance of the Federal Reserve and the strong performance of the U.S. economy. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell said he was not in a hurry to lower interest rates and did not discloseWhen will interest rates be lowered again? Meanwhile, the uncertainty brought about by US President Trump's chaotic tariff policies has also eased after a series of trade agreements, and investors' confidence in the resilience of the US economy has increased. The euro was one of the biggest victims of the dollar's gains this month as investors pulled back bets previously made based on the assumption that "European markets may offer more opportunities." The euro is expected to fall nearly 3% this month.
Germany inflation fell further to 1.8% in July
Preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistics Office on Thursday showed that Germany's inflation rate in July fell 1.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected. Germany's core inflation rate (excluding volatile food and energy prices) remained unchanged at 2.7% in July. German economic data will be released on Friday and euro zone inflation data will be released on Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the euro zone inflation to be 1.9% in July, down from 2.0% last month. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged last week and made a moderately optimistic assessment of the eurozone economy, raising concerns among investors about further easing policies.
The U.S. announced a surge in layoffs in July, affected by artificial intelligence and tariffs. Data from human resources xm-forex.company Challenger Gray & Christmas shows that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. xm-forex.companies in July surged, significantly higher than the average level of the same period since the epidemic, with the technology industry being the most significant. According to a report released Thursday, U.S. xm-forex.companies announced layoffs of 62,075 jobs in July, xm-forex.compared with nearly 25,900 in the same period last year. This is the second highest number of layoffs announced in July in the past decade, second only to the worst period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The report pointed out that the main reasons for xm-forex.companies' planned layoffs include artificial intelligence and tariff issues, and uncertainty about the economic outlook has led to layoffs in the retail industry and store closures. In recent weeks, major technology xm-forex.companies have announced plans to lay off employees. Intel announced plans to cut its workforce by 15%, and Microsoft launched the second wave of massive layoffs this year, which is expected to affect 9,000 employees. The technology industry is increasing spending in the AI sector and trying to cut costs in other ways. The Lebanese President calls for strengthening control of weapons across the country
According to the Lebanese National News Agency, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called for the promotion of "exclusive control of weapons" by the military and security forces across the country. In his speech, Aoon demanded that the state power be extended across the country, disarm all armed groups, including Hezbollah, and hand over the weapons to the Lebanese army. He stressed that adhering to the "monopoly" of the military and security forces over weapons throughout the country aims to defend national sovereignty and borders and regain occupied territories. According to the Lighthouse TV station of Hezbollah, Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Naim Qasim said on the 30th that Hezbollah's armed forces "exist to resist Israel and will not be used for domestic affairs."
The U.S. and Middle East Special Envoy met with Netanyahu to discuss issues such as the Gaza ceasefire agreementh4>
On the 31st local time, U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Witkov visited Israel and met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. According to previous reports from local media, the two sides will mainly discuss issues such as the Gaza ceasefire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza and the Iranian nuclear issue. In addition, Witkov plans to travel to Gaza.
European wine stocks fell, wine and spirits faced 15% tariffs in the United States
European wine sector fell, subject to the EU's statement that wine and spirits will face 15% tariffs in the United States starting from August 1. Perno Riga shares fell 2.5% in the Paris market, while Diageo fell 2.4% in the London market. Both stocks ranked among the worst performing stocks in the Stock 600 Food and Beverage and Tobacco Index on Thursday. The share price of InBev in the Brewer-Busch fell after sales fell below expectations in the second quarter, which also dragged down the index.
Trump bombarded Powell again: accusing him of being "slow, angry, stupid" and may the position of Federal Reserve Chairmanship be insured?
⑴ US President Trump slams Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on social media. ⑵Trump bluntly stated that Powell's action was "too late" and "too angry, too stupid, too politicized" and was not suitable to continue as chairman of the Federal Reserve. ⑶ He accused Powell of "losing trillions of dollars" in the United States. ⑷ At the same time, Trump also criticized Powell for his performance in architectural projects as "the most incompetent and corrupt architectural (group) renovation in architectural history." ⑸ Trump calls Powell "Mr. Taichi" and asserts that he is a "complete loser", and the country is paying the price. ⑹This fierce criticism once again highlights Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. ⑺Trump has publicly criticized the Fed's interest rate hike policy many times, believing that it has hindered US economic growth. ⑻The escalation of remarks indicates that tensions between Trump and the Fed are still ongoing and may trigger further market concerns about the independence of the Fed.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1435, an increase of 0.27%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EURUSD) fell in the last session after it tried to regain some of its previous losses and tried to get rid of its apparent oversold condition on (RSI), especially in the case of positive signals, but the price succumbed to bearish correction waves and their negative pressures, continuing below EMA50, closing below support at 1.1430, enhancing the possibility of a decline.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3226, a drop of 0.08%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose in the last intraday trading due to its current support level of 1.322, with a major bearish trend dominant on a short-term basis., and it trades with the primary and secondary bias lines supporting this trend, the negative pressure on its trading below the EMA50 continues. Prices try to recoup some of the previous losses and throw away some obvious oversold conditions on (RSI) and start to show positive overlap signals from there.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3308.48, an increase of 1.03%. Before New York, the (gold) price fell in the last trading session, after retesting the key resistance at $3310, it faces negative pressure due to the stability of the resistance level, especially if it successfully releases the (RSI) oversold condition, opening the way to record more losses, increasing the negative pressure around it as it trades with the bearish trendline as the negative pressure brought by its trade below the EMA50 is continued.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 36.613, a drop of 1.30%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price deepened its decline in the last intraday trading, affected by the dominance of the short-term bearish correction trend and its biased line along the reinforced negative track.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 69.630, a drop of 0.51%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices began to recover and rose slightly in the last trading session after it successfully gained positive momentum and got rid of the obvious overbought situation on (RSI), opening the way for more gains in the near future.
4. Institutional View
Dutch International Bank: U.S. data to be released may boost the US dollar
Dutch International Group analyst Francesco Pesole said in a report that the US dollar is expected to rise again because the upcoming data may be detrimental to the recent U.S. interest rate cut. He said that the core PCE price index (a xm-forex.commonly used inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve) in June released at 20:30 Beijing time may exceed expectations. Other data worth paying for initial unemployment benefits came after the data unexpectedly fell for six consecutive weeks. This is the longest decline since August to September 2022 and may indicate a strong labor market performance. In addition, non-farm employment data released on Friday may also be "good enough" to support the Fed's continued continuedSuspend interest rate cuts.
Institution: The "super month" of US stocks will end and August may face profit settlement
SentimenTrader, a market research xm-forex.company, said that the U.S. stock market is about to end its hottest July in history. In this month, the S&P 500 has hit record highs 10 times (the third best performance since 1928), and the Nasdaq xm-forex.composite Index has hit record highs 14 times. Such "super month" is rare in summer, and historical data shows that August has become difficult after a similar surge in July. Historically, when the S&P 500 hit at least seven years highs in July, its probability of rising in August was only 36%, while the probability of rising in the next two months was less than half. The Nasdaq xm-forex.composite has shown stronger resilience, usually rebounding strongly after 4 months, but August still becomes like a **.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Eurozone Economic Recovery, Analysis of Short-Term Trends of Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Foreign Exchange on July 31". It was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
In fact, responsibility is not helpless, it is not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created a better life for us today. I will try my best to organize the article.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here