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The palm oil weekly line ends three consecutive negatives, but MACD has not yet been golden for a golden cross. Is it risky to chase more people?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The weekly line of palm oil ended three consecutive negatives, but MACD has not yet been a golden cross. Is it risky to chase the long?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (April 25), Malaysian palm oil futures ended three consecutive declines this week, and the main contract FCPOc3 closed at 4,058 ringgit/ton on Friday, an increase of 2.09%. The technical indicators of the disk surface show that the middle rail of the Bollinger channel (20,2) is located at 4164 ringgit. Although the MACD columnar line is still in the negative range (-102.8), the narrowing of the fast and slow line implies a short-term kinetic energy repair. This rebound was mainly driven by the external oil market: Chicago soybean oil jumped 1.84% in a single day, while Dalian soybean oil and palm oil futures rose 1.28% and 2% respectively.
The oil price ratio effect dominates the short-term market
Kuala Lumpur traders pointed out that expectations for US soybean oil export demand have improved, which has directly boosted global vegetable oil market sentiment. It is worth noting that Indian buyers returned to the market after five months of silence, and the current discount on palm oil has expanded xm-forex.compared to soybean oil, stimulating the demand for refiners to restock. According to industry insiders, four major traders have begun to increase their procurement efforts. This change partially offsets the negative for the EU's shrinking imports - the European xm-forex.commission's latest forecast to cut palm oil imports by 16.7% to 2.5 million tons in 2025/26.
Demand for biodiesel remains suppressed
The continued weakness of the crude oil market has dragged down palm oil. International oil prices fell by more than 2% this week, and the market is concerned about oversupply. As a biodiesel raw material, the economy of palm oil decreases as crude oil weakens. However, the ringgit exchange rate remained stable at around 4.37, and has not caused significant interference to export quotations for the time being.
Differences in institutions: Continuing rebound is doubtful
Analysts in well-known institutions agreeFor, the current rebound is more of a technical correction. "The rate of palm oil inventory disposal is lower than expected, and the seasonal production increase cycle in May is approaching, so the short-term upward space may be limited." It stressed that if Chicago soybean oil fails to stand firm at the key 78 cents/pound, palm oil and rising momentum may be exhausted.
Another party of views focuses on potential structural changes. An analyst in Singapore pointed out: "India's inventory reconstruction demand may continue until before the June monsoon season, and Indonesia's B35 firewood plan has not been loosened, and there is cost support below 4,500 ringgit." However, it also reminds that the shrinking demand in Europe and the fluctuations in crude oil are still the "Sword of Damocles" hanging above the head.
Technical and Strategic Outlook
From the market perspective, the short-term resistance level of palm oil clearly falls in the range of 4160-4200 ringgit, which corresponds to the Bollinger middle track and the previous gap. Considering that MACD has not yet formed a golden cross and the weekly line is still in a downward channel, traders need to be wary of the risk of rising and falling. In the medium and long term, the lagging impact of El Niño on yield may become an important variable in the third quarter market.
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Palm oil weekly ends three consecutive negative lines, but MACD has not yet been golden fork. Is it risky to chase more people?", which is carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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