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market analysis
【XM Forex】--USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Lira Weakens Further
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Forex】--USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Lira Weakens Further". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 35.95.
- Set a stop-loss order below 35.80.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 36.25.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 36.25.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 36.30.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 36.10.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair has risen in early trading, reaching new highs after settling above the 36 lira per dollar level. The pair was trading at 36.12 lira at the time of writing this report, amid expectations of continued dollar strength in the coming weeks.
These expectations regarding the gradual decline of the Turkish currency are due to the monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of Turkey, which does not give as much consideration to the nominal exchange rate of the lira as much as the progress it achieves compared to inflation levels. In this regard, forecasts indicate that the US dollar exchange rate will reach 36.53 lira by the end of the first quarter of 2025, and 43.00 lira by the end of the year.
Economic data in Turkey showed a continued slowdown in growth, with forecasts indicating a growth rate of 2.9% in 2024, with the possibility of slowing to 2.6% in 2025 if the tight monetary policy continues to put pressure on private consumption. While monetary policy is expected to see some stimulation, but not at the strong pace that was previously expected, after the Central Bank of Turkey raised its inflation forecast for 2024 from 21% to 24%, while keeping the 2026 estimates unchanged at 12%. Furthermore, the governor indicated the possibility of future interest rate cuts based on inflation developments.
Meanwhile, the most prominent data released this year was the recording of annual inflation in January, which slowed to 42.1% compared to 44.4% in the previous month. Despite monthly inflation recording 5% exceeding expectations, driven by rising prices of services, especially rents, education, and health.
In other data, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in Turkey declined to 48 in January 2024, reflecting a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector for the tenth consecutive month, with new orders slowing and demand conditions remaining weak. The annual current account deficit also widened to $7.4 billion in November 2024, compared to $7.1 billion in the previous month, while official reserves maintained their growth with an increase of $1.3 billion.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair continues to rise at the same slow pace that the pair has been trading through over the past months. Amid the continued dominance of the negative sentiment towards the Turkish lira's outlook in the medium term, especially with the price continuing to trade within an upward price channel that supports the rise of the pair. At the same time, the pair's movements continue above the 50 and 200-day moving averages on the four-hour timeframe as well. Currently, every pullback in the pair represents an opportunity to buy again. The pair targets levels of 36.25 lira and 36.55 lira, respectively.
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