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market analysis
【XM Decision Analysis】--EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Sentiment as Risks Rise
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Sentiment as Risks Rise". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0250.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0525.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0525.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0250.
The EUR/USD exchange rate retreated for four straight days after the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve decision. It also dropped to 1.0360 after the recent US and European inflation data.
ECB and Fed decisions and inflation data
The EUR/USD pair retreated after the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday. It left interest rates unchanged and signaled that it will be more cautious on rates this year.
The bank is concerned about inflation, which has remained higher in the past few months. A report released on Friday showed that the headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose from 2.4% to 2.6%, while the core figure remained at 2.8%.
This inflation will likely remain steady after the US imposed tariffs on imports from key countries like Mexico, Canada, and China. The US is now charging a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods, and a 10% one on China.
The EUR/USD pair also retreated after the European Central Bank slashed interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday. Officials remained concerned about the state of the economy and predicted that more cuts were coming. They expect another cut in its March meeting, bringing the total cuts to about 1.5%.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the bloc’s inflation retreated. German inflation dropped from 2.6% to 2.3% in January, while French fell from 0.2% to minus 0.1% on the MoM basis.
The next key EUR/USD news to watch will be the upcoming US nonfarm payroll (NFP) data, which will provide more information on the health of the labor market in the US. It will also reac to the tariff issue that will affect the US and other economies.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD exchange rate recently peaked at 1.0525 and then resumed its downtrend to 1.0360. It has dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the Woodie pivot point, and the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Most oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) are pointed downwards. The PPO is a modified version of the MACD, a popular indicator used to show convergence and pergence.
The EUR/USD pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support at 1.2500 ahead of the US jobs data.
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