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market analysis
【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Lira Hits Record Lows
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Lira Hits Record Lows". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 35.49.
- Set a stop-loss order below 35.30.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 35.75.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 35.75.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 35.80.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 35.59.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The dollar has appreciated against the Turkish lira at the start of the week, with the pair reaching new levels during early trading at 35.69 lira per dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to rise against the Turkish currency at the same pace of gradual increases that the pair has been recording since the last months of last year. Obviously, the current declines in the lira reflect the decline in support provided by the Turkish monetary and fiscal authorities for the local currency. Concurrently, the Turkish currency is expected to continue its decline in the medium term, coinciding with the decline in interest rates and the slowdown in support available for the currency.
Investors followed the decision of the Turkish Central Bank last Thursday, which cut interest rates by 250 basis points. Furthermore, this is the second consecutive cut after a 500-basis point cut in December. Although the Turkish Central Bank justified the interest rate cut due to the slowdown in inflation in the country, investors fear the intervention of the executive authority represented by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in the decisions of the Central Bank and his push to increase the pace of interest rate cuts.
The most prominent data released from Turkey during this month showed that the consumer price index recorded a slowdown on an annual basis in December to reach 44.38% compared to 47.09% recorded in November, and the figure was also below expectations which were at 45.20%. In other data, the producer price index declined during the same month on an annual basis to reach 28.52% compared to 29.47% recorded in November. Also, the industrial production index recorded a decline during last November monthly after rising by 1% compared to 4% recorded in October. Finally, the general budget recorded a decline of about 829.20 billion liras in December.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
On the technical side, the dollar/lira pair (USD/TRY) rose to its all-time high at 35.69 lira this morning. Technically, the price reached an upward trendline that represents a strong resistance level. Despite the current resistance, the price is expected to continue its rise amid the dominance of the overall upward trend in the pair's movements, which is trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, as well as the pair's stability within an upward price channel that supports the price rise. The Turkish lira price forecast indicates a continued rise in the pair, especially if it breaks through the upward trendline.
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