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【XM Decision Analysis】--GBP/USD Analysis: Investor Sentiment Leaning Towards Selling
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--GBP/USD Analysis: Investor Sentiment Leaning Towards Selling". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- Bulls haven't enjoyed the recent rebound gains for long in the GBP/USD pair, which reached the resistance level of 1.2305.
- We had recommended selling the GBP/USD pair above that peak through our free direct trading signals on our website.
- Obviously, this was before it quickly returned in its broader downward path with losses to the support level of 1.2186 before settling around the level of 1.2240 at the beginning of trading on Thursday.
- Ahead of a package of important economic releases from both Britain and the United States of America, the results of which may shape the closing of trading for the currency pair this week.
US Dollar Price Affected by Inflation Figures
According to Forex trading, dollar bulls needed an inflation reading that exceeded consensus to maintain their momentum, but they received news of an unexpected slowdown in core US inflation. The US dollar had retreated after the US core consumer price index (CPI) fell to 3.2% year-on-year from 3.3% (exp: 3.3%), marking the first decline since July. Overall, US core inflation, which consists of core inflation minus rents, remains elevated but is still trending down. Also, reported was that core consumer price inflation rose to 2.9% year-on-year in December from 2.7%, which was in line with expectations and helped to bolster expectations for a rate cut in June.
Expectations for US Federal Reserve Policies
Influenced by the announcement of US inflation figures, US Treasury yields declined, stocks rose, and money market prices showed that traders had increased their bets on the next US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, with a possible second cut in the second half of 2025. Overall, the data comes amid signs that the US dollar is at a peak and is trading above its fundamental drivers. This overvalued assessment was driven by a series of US economic data that came in above consensus, which now leaves room for further upside at a particularly high level. Consequently, this makes the US dollar vulnerable to data releases that meet or fall short of expectations.
According to reliable trading platforms, the US Dollar Index - a measure of the US dollar's strength against a basket of currencies - is now more than 25% above its 25-year average and at a level we have only seen briefly since the 1980s. According to Forex analysts at Societe Generale, the overvalued US dollar assessment seems to reflect the policies of incoming US President Donald Trump that are leading the market. Furthermore, the risk is that what he offers fails to meet expectations.
However, there is also limited scope for significant US interest rate cuts, given the strength of the US economy, suggesting that a defeat for the dollar is unlikely either.
Trading Tips:
Dear TradersUp follower, the British financial crisis will remain a negative pressure factor for investor sentiment towards the British pound in the coming period, threatening any gains against the US dollar and other major currencies.
Technical Analysis for the GPB/USD pair today:
Dear reader, according to trading on the daily chart, the general trend of the GBP/USD pair is still bearish. As mentioned before, we expected that the gains of the GBP/USD pair will remain vulnerable to a rapid collapse. Furthermore, we still prefer to sell the GBP/USD from every upward level. Currently, the closest resistance levels for the currency pair are 1.2330, 1.2420, and 1.2500, respectively. The technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index and the MACD, are still bearish.
Today, the pound will be affected by the announcement of the British economic growth reading and the industrial sector. The US dollar will be affected by the announcement of US retail sales figures, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
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