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【XM Group】--EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Sentiment Ahead of US Retail Sales Data
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】--EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Sentiment Ahead of US Retail Sales Data". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Bearish View
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0180.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.03700.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0310 and a take-profit at 1.03700.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0180.
The EUR/USD pair stabilized during the American session as the December inflation report led to a risk-on sentiment by investors. The pair was trading at 1.0290, up from this week’s low of 1.0180 as traders wait for more economic data from the United States and Europe.
US Retail Sales Data Ahead
The EUR/USD exchange rate moved sideways after the US core inflation moved downwards slightly providing a big relief to investors. According to the statistics agency, the core consumer price index (CPI) dropped from 0.3% in November to 0.2%, lower than the median estimate of 0.3%. It dropped from 3.3% to 3.2% on a YoY basis.
The decline was notable since it has remained in the same level in the past few months. As such, the US dollar index and bond yields dropped slightly while American stocks had their best day this year.
This performance is mostly because the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may deliver more cuts than expected. Still, inflation remains higher than the Fed’s target of 2.0%, with the headline CPI rising from 2.7% to 2.9%, its highest level in months.
The next key EUR/USD news to watch will be the upcoming US retail sales numbers, which will provide more information on the state of the US economy. Economists expect the data to show that retail sales rose by 0.6% in December after rising by 0.7% in the previous month.
Core retail sales are expected to come in at 0.5%, higher than the previous 0.2%. The US will also publish the latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and export and import price index data.
The other key catalysts for the pair will be the last minutes of the European Central Bank and German inflation numbers.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair stabilized after crashing to a low of 1.0180 earlier this month. Most recently, it has formed a descending channel, which is shown in green. It retested the upper side of the descending channel.
It has dropped below the 50-day and 25-day moving averages, while the MACD indicator has moved below the neutral level and is moving sideways. The pair will likely resume the downward trend and possibly retest the support at 1.0180, its lowest point this year. A break below that point will boost the odds of it falling to the parity level.
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