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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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market analysis
【XM Decision Analysis】--EUR/USD Forex Signal: Euro Crash Brings Parity Into Focus
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--EUR/USD Forex Signal: Euro Crash Brings Parity Into Focus". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Bearish View
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.000.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0350.
- Timeline: 1-3 days.
Bullish View
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0350.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1000.
The EUR/USD pair continued its strong downtrend as the US dollar index surged after the strong US dollar index (DXY) surged to near $110. It has crashed by almost 10% from its 2023 highs and is quickly approaching the parity level of 1.000.
US Inflation Data Ahead
The EUR/USD pair retreated sharply as the market reacted to the strong US jobs numbers. According to the US Labor Department, the economy created more jobs than expected. It added over 256k jobs in December, higher than the expected 156k.
The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% during the month, while wage growth remained steady. Therefore, analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain its fairly hawkish tone. As a result, the 30-year Treasury and 10-year yields rose to 5% and 4.76%, respectively.
The EUR/USD pair also retreated ahead of the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data scheduled on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show that the headline CPI continued rising in December, with the headline figure expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7%.
The Fed has continued to express concerns about the country’s inflation, especially now that Donald Trump is set to become the next president. Trump has made several inflationary pledges like cutting taxes, deporting millions of undocumented migrants, and introducing tariffs.
Minutes released last week showed that officials were inclined to continuing with interest rate, albeit at a slower pace this year. The CME FedWatch tool estimates that the first interest rate cut will happen in July.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will also start going slow on cuts as inflation rises. A report released last week showed that the bloc’s inflation rose to 2.4% in December.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair has been on a relentless bear market after peaking at 1.1200 in September, where it formed a double-top chart pattern. It has now moved below the key support level at 1.0450, its lowest swing in October 2023 and the neckline of the double-top chart pattern. A double-top is a popular bearish chart pattern.
The pair has moved below the 50-week and 25-week moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. Also, it has fallen to the ultimate support of the Murrey Math Lines indicator, while the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has remained below the zero line.
Therefore, the EUR/USD pair will likely continue this week, with the next reference level to watch being at the parity level of 1.000.
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