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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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market analysis
【XM Market Review】--EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Outlook Remains
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Review】--EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Outlook Remains". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- The strongest bearish trajectory for the EUR/USD price performance remains ahead of the announcement of the important US jobs figures this week, along with the announcement of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
- Last week's losses for the EUR/USD pair reached a support level of 1.0224, its lowest in more than two years, before stabilizing around 1.0307. currently, the US dollar remains the strongest amid a sudden shift by the US Federal Reserve to continue easing its policy under the leadership of Trump.
Key Factors Affecting Euro-Dollar This Week
On the European side, and according to the economic calendar, the focus will be on the announcement of European inflation figures. Eurozone data this week is likely to show a slight acceleration in price growth in December, above the European Central Bank's 2% target. This reading, fuelled by higher fuel prices, will coincide with figures from Italy and after reports from France and Germany in the previous 24 hours. All three economies are expected to see faster inflation.
Overall, the European Central Bank's measure of consumer price expectations will also be published. A small number of officials are scheduled to appear publicly. Elsewhere in the Eurozone, manufacturing orders and industrial production in Germany will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, each providing a final glimpse of the poor health of manufacturing in the region's largest economy. France and Spain will publish equivalent output figures.
On the US side, all the focus will be on the release of US jobs data. In this regard, US jobs rose by 160,000 in December 2024, as the labour market overcame the distortions caused by hurricanes and strike activity in previous months, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This would put the average monthly US job growth near 180,000 for 2024 - below the previous three years but consistent with a strong labour market.
Overall, Friday’s monthly jobs data is unlikely to change Fed officials’ view that they can slow the pace of interest rate cuts amid a stable economy and inflation that is only gradually dissipating.
Trading Tips:
The euro-dollar’s downward trajectory is stronger and may remain for some time, so watch the euro’s weakness carefully and carefully, as this month will have strong influences on the future performance of the currency pair.
The German Economy Still Faces Headwinds
Undoubtedly, the political and economic concerns of both Germany and France have been among the strongest factors weakening the Euro against the US Dollar, with losses extending to the lowest level for the currency pair in more than two years. The German economy is still facing headwinds, including the upcoming German elections, rising unemployment rates in the country, and crises in the German automotive industry.
Overall, German leaders have so far failed to find answers to revive the ailing German economy, which the German central bank expects to barely grow in 2025 after contracting last year, according to its latest forecast. According to analysts, German GDP is at risk of another year of contraction, so clarity in government leadership and commitment to fiscal expansion will be crucial to reviving the slowing economy and assessing the DAX stock index.
EUR/USD Analysis Today:
Dear reader, the bearish trend of the EUR/USD pair remains the strongest, and its recent losses were sufficient to push technical indicators towards oversold levels. As we mentioned before, the recent move has increased expectations that the EUR/USD parity is closer than previously expected. Furthermore, the Euro-Dollar may remain under selling pressure until there is clarity regarding the future of central bank policies and the new US administration. Currently, the closest support levels for the Euro-Dollar are 1.0245, 1.0180, and 1.0070 respectively. Technically, technical indicators are in a strong bearish position. Finally, we still prefer selling the currency pair from every upward level.
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