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market analysis
【XM Market Analysis】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Strong Drop to New 2-Year Low
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Strong Drop to New 2-Year Low". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
My previous signal on 12th December was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6299, $0.6352, or $0.6388.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6166, $0.6126, or $6102.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast one week ago that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking likely to resume its bearish trend sooner or later, so I thought a short trade from a rejection of $0.6442 was a good call.
I was right about the bearish trend resuming, but the price did not get back to $0.6442.
The technical picture has become more bearish as the price continued to slowly decline before taking off with a strong downwards move yesterday which pushed the price to a new 2-year low price.
This was triggered by the US Federal Reserve making it clear that it sees inflation as elevated and is planning for only two rate cuts in 2025, which hit risk sentiment (knocking the Aussie) and boosted US treasury yields (pushing the US Dollar higher).
The price has recovered since the strong spike down, but not by a significant amount. The wave down still looks impulsive and there is a strong, long-term bearish trend, with commodity currencies like the Australian Dollar especially weak.
The bullish move now might extend, we have already had one significant higher low which led to another bullish leg.
The area of the round number above at $0.6300 looks likely to be the first serious test for bulls. I will be happy to enter a new short trade if we see a rejection of that level when it is first reached.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of Final GDP and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
The above content is all about "【XM Market Analysis】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Strong Drop to New 2-Year Low", which is carefully compiled and edited by XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful for your trading! Thank you for your support!
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