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market analysis
【XM Decision Analysis】--Gold Analysis: Quick Rebound May Be Short-Lived
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--Gold Analysis: Quick Rebound May Be Short-Lived". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- During Thursday's trading, the gold price is attempting to recover yesterday's losses, which exceeded 2%, as the gold price index plummeted to the support level of $2583 per ounce.
- This is the lowest price in a month, following the US Federal Reserve's hawkish announcement.
- Today, Thursday, attempts to recover the spot gold price reached $2622 per ounce, and it is currently stabilizing near this level at the time of writing this analysis, ahead of the announcement of the Bank of England's decision and the US GDP growth reading.
Reasons for the decline in gold prices
According to gold trading platforms, the US dollar has risen to its highest level in two years, which is putting downward pressure on gold prices. The strong gains in the US dollar today came after a hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve regarding fewer US interest rate cuts in 2025. The dot plot projections showed only two cuts to US interest rates in 2025, supported by strong GDP growth and persistent inflation. Consequently, these expectations have put pressure on demand for gold bullion, as limited monetary easing reduces the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like bullion.
The US Federal Reserve also revised its economic forecasts, which supported the "hawkish" message of the policy update. The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with the US economy expected to grow by 2.1% in 2025, up from 2% previously. Moreover, the unemployment rate is expected to end 2025 at 4.3%, down from the previously estimated 4.4%. Inflation forecasts were also revised upward for 2025 and 2026, indicating that the Fed expects inflation to remain above its 2% target for longer.
Trading Tips:
Gold has risen more than 30% this year, heading for its biggest annual gain since 2010, driven by US monetary easing, strong safe-haven demand and strong central bank buying. Therefore, expect a strong upward trend in the coming months.
Will the gold price rise tomorrow?
We expect gold prices to resume their upward trend tomorrow and in the coming days as long as global geopolitical and economic tensions persist and increase. In addition, the largest consumer of gold has returned to buying, most notably China recently.
Gold Price Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The gold price moving below the $2,600 per ounce level is a breach of the upward trend. According to gold analysts, the upward trend will remain the most prominent for gold prices. Furthermore, any decline in prices may be an opportunity to buy gold again. Currently, the closest support levels for gold prices are $2585, $2570, and $2548 per ounce, respectively, and these levels may be sufficient to push technical indicators towards oversold levels, according to the Relative Strength Index and the Momentum Indicator. Ultimately, It is essential to avoid taking risks when buying gold again and to activate take-profit and stop-loss orders to ensure the safety of the trading account from any sudden price reversals.
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