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market analysis
【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Facing the 1.05 Support Again
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Facing the 1.05 Support Again". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- Investor risk aversion has returned due to recent developments in the Middle East, which is positive for the US dollar's gains.
- Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair has returned to the vicinity of the important support level of 1.0500, quickly giving up the gains of the previous weekend that reached the resistance level of 1.0630 following the announcement of strong US jobs data.
Will the Euro-Dollar Rise in the Coming Days?
According to reliable currency trading company platforms, the selling of the Euro has developed into a sideways trend, and the chart also shows the boundaries of the narrow sideways range that has developed since mid-November. Overall, we believe that the coming days may see the Euro-Dollar retest the upper bound of the range at 1.0628. However, a daily close above this level would be a bullish development for those who want a stronger Euro. In general, the EUR/USD pair still needs to trade decisively above 1.06 (and even above 1.0660) to convincingly stop the current downtrend. However, the current rebound above 1.0550 provides at least an additional barrier for the Euro.
Therefore, the technical picture is one of resilience rather than strength. It seems that the markets are tired of buying the US dollar but are not confident enough to buy the Euro directly. Also, the movement of forex prices in recent days indicates the limits of what is called "Trump trading". In addition, the fact that US interest rates and US Treasury yields remain near recent lows is a major headwind for the US dollar.
The Euro is Concerned with ECB Decisions
The main event for the Euro against other major currencies this week will be the European Central Bank's decision, where a further interest rate cut is expected. Consensus expects a 25-basis point cut, although market pricing shows that some expect a stronger 50 basis point move. If the latter is implemented, the Euro will weaken. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair will test the bottom of the recent range towards support at 1.0450.
Although there is a strong argument for the ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a 50-basis point cut, it seems that a majority of the Governing Council members prefer 25-basis points, which would lower the deposit rate to 3.0%. Nevertheless, the policy statement will indicate that with downside risks clearly increasing, monetary policy could turn to a more neutral stance before long. We still believe that the ECB will cut the deposit rate further than investors expect next year. At the same time, the "dovish" message issued by the ECB will also be consistent with a weaker Euro exchange rate.
However, not all roads lead to weakening the Euro, and some analysts believe that the ECB will want to show caution, which could strengthen the currency.
Trading Tips:
We still prefer to sell the Euro Dollar from every upside level as the factors of weakness in the Euro are strong and may take time to remove or the opposite may happen, and things will get worse. Cautiously, attentions are turning cautiously to the European Central Bank announcement and US inflation figures.
EUR/USD Analysis Today:
The EUR/USD pair continues to be in a neutral position within an ascending triangle pattern, as the price formed higher lows and found resistance at the key psychological level of 1.0600. At the same time, the upper part of the triangle keeps the gains under control again, pushing the EUR/USD pair closer to the bottom around the secondary psychological level of 1.0550, which also coincides with the dynamic support at the moving averages. In terms of simple moving averages, the 100-day simple moving average appears to be crossing above the 200-day simple moving average, indicating that the trend is bullish or that support is likely to hold rather than break. Stronger upward momentum could stimulate a move above the triangle's peak and a rise equal to the formation's height, which extends about 250 pips.
At the same time, the Stochastic indicator is in the oversold zone, indicating exhaustion among the bears, so a shift upwards means that buyers are ready to take control of performance. Also, the oscillator has a large space to rise before reaching the overbought zone, so the price can continue to follow the same approach. Technically, the Relative Strength Index has more room to decline before reaching the oversold zone, so downward pressure may remain for a little longer. Ultimately, a break below the triangle bottom could lead to a decline equal to the formation's height as well.
EUR/USD Signals:
You can follow the Euro-Dollar recommendations and other free live trading recommendations exclusively through our website. However, it is necessary to consider not taking risks and activating take-profit and stop-loss orders to ensure the safety of the trading account from any sudden price reversals.
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