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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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CATEGORIES
market analysis
The Fed shows its eagle claws, and pound bulls tremble before 1.3344
Wonderful introduction:
Green life is full of hope, beautiful fantasy, hope for the future, and the longed-for ideal is the green of life. The road we are going to take tomorrow is lush green, just like the grass in the wilderness, releasing the vitality of life.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xm-forex.commentary]: The Federal Reserve shows its eagle claws, and the pound bulls are trembling before 1.3344." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (December 9), the British pound against the U.S. dollar (GBP/USD) entered a upward trend. Previously, the exchange rate maintained a narrow range above the 1.3300 mark after reaching the measured increase. Recently, Continuous testing of the key price level of 1.3344 failed, and it is currently trading around 1.3322. The market is focusing on the policy clues of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England this week. Traders generally hold the currency on the sidelines due to the interweaving of long and short factors, and the short-term exchange rate lacks clear directional momentum.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish interest rate cut on Thursday, and the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates next week. Coupled with the catalysis of key economic data, the pound may face an opportunity to break out of the volatile range in the short term.
The Fed's hawkish interest rate cut suppresses the pound
The core focus of the market this week is the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting that concluded on Wednesday. The market has generally priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%.
However, the market expects Powell to reveal hawkish remarks at the press conference and raise the threshold for the next interest rate cut. The hawkish expectations provide some rebound momentum for the U.S. dollar index (DXY). As of press time, the U.S. dollar index has been running above the 99.00 integer mark, providing slight suppression for the pound against the U.S. dollar.
The Federal Reserve’s policy balance needs to be focused on: the current U.S. inflation pressure is still significantly higher than the 2% target, and the job market has cooled due to the popularization of artificial intelligence applications. The Federal Reserve will most likely send a cautious and hawkish signal of easing in its monetary policy statement, dot chart, and Powell’s press conference.
Investors will focus on interpreting the mid- and long-term interest rates in the economic forecast report., inflation, growth and unemployment rate, this signal will directly dominate the subsequent trend of the US dollar, thereby affecting the direction of the pound against the US dollar.
The Bank of England’s bets on an interest rate cut next week have heated up, limiting the pound’s rebound
The market’s bets on the Bank of England’s interest rate cut next week have continued to heat up, becoming a key factor restricting the attack of the pound bulls.
Traders generally expect that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's monetary policy meeting, bringing interest rates to 3.75%. This expectation is also supported by data and officials' statements.
On the one hand, the UK's overall consumer price index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate in October slowed to 3.6% from 3.8% for three consecutive months, and the labor market was also weak - a survey by KPMG and the Federation of Recruitment and Employment showed that recruitment activities for permanent positions last month were due to potential job losses. Concerns about tax increases remain weak;
On the other hand, Bank of England external member Alan Taylor made it clear that as wages and service industry inflation slow down simultaneously, inflation is expected to return to the 2% policy target in the short term, and the current moderate tightening policy will achieve the effect of inflation control as scheduled.
For key clues about the future outlook for British interest rates, attention should be paid to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech on Wednesday and the October gross domestic product (GDP) data released on Friday. These two events will further confirm whether the Bank of England’s interest rate cut logic is solid.
Short-term catalytic: U.S. employment data is the key to a range breakthrough
Before the central bank’s policy is implemented, the U.S. employment data released on Tuesday will become a short-term catalytic factor for the pound against the dollar. JOLTS job vacancy data for October will be released at 15:00 GMT, with market expectations that U.S. employers will create 7.2 million new job vacancies; ADP weekly employment change data will also be released later in the North American session.
If the data shows that the U.S. labor market has further cooled, it will strengthen expectations of continued easing by the Federal Reserve, pushing the dollar to weaken, and the pound against the dollar is expected to attack the upper edge of the shock range; conversely, if the data is strong, it may temporarily boost the dollar and suppress the pound's correction to test the 1.3300 mark support.
However, in the context of approaching key central bank events, the impact of data on the exchange rate may be biased toward short-term fluctuations, making it difficult to change the pound's shock pattern.
Additional support: OECD raised its UK growth forecast
It is worth noting that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its UK growth forecast last week and predicted that the Bank of England will end the easing cycle in the second quarter of 2026. This expectation provides additional underlying support for the pound and helps the pound to stabilize above the 1.3300 mark against the US dollar. After experiencing two-way shocks in the previous trading day, the pound attracted some short-term buying during the Asian session on Tuesday, but lacked strong follow-up buying, reflecting the market's cautious attitude.
Trading Enlightenment: The shock range has not been broken, mainly wait and see for signals
From a trading perspective, the pound against the US dollar is currently at "In the "wait and see before policy" state, the 1.3300 mark has become the core of the short-term long-short game.
Before the policy signals from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are clear, it is not advisable to blindly bet on the exchange rate continuing its rebound from the psychological mark of 1.3000 since November. Sell high and buy low within the shock range, and strictly control positions.
In the future, we need to focus on two major breakthrough signals: If the Federal Reserve releases dovish guidance and the UK GDP data performs better, the pound is expected to break out against the dollar. Breaking the upper edge of the shock, opening up room for further upside.
If Powell emphasizes the easing threshold, or the Bank of England's interest rate cut expectations are further strengthened, the pound may fall below the 1.3300 mark and call back to test the support below. The bottom pattern breaks through, and then reaches around 1.3344, which measures the increase. The exchange rate is currently testing 1.3344 continuously to no avail. It is expected to start falling after the meeting. Currently, 1.3344 and the 5-day line are the pressure levels, and the distant pressure level is at 1. 3450, which is the intensive trading area before the exchange rate fell.
The orange line is the neckline generated when the exchange rate fell, and it is within the 1.3280-1.3290 range.
At the same time, the The rebound of the pound means that the US dollar index may counterattack.
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xm-forex.commentary]: The Fed shows its eagle claws, and the pound bulls are trembling before 1.3344". It is carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of
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