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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2014年首届亚军
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CATEGORIES
market analysis
Keep interest rates unchanged, the interest rate cut cycle may be over
Wonderful introduction:
Green life is full of hope, beautiful fantasy, hope for the future, and the longed-for ideal is the green of life. The road we are going to take tomorrow is lush green, just like the grass in the wilderness, releasing the vitality of life.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Maintaining interest rates unchanged, the interest rate cut cycle may have ended." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The European Central Bank released the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting. Most members agreed that inflation data may rise or fall in the future, so they reached a consensus of "maintaining the current interest rate unchanged"; "keeping an open mind" is a minority member's plan for "in case of risks materializing" to avoid policy rigidity; "end of interest rate cut cycle" is the judgment of most members based on "the current economic standards are met and the policy is effective", and they oppose unnecessary easing.
The essence of the three is the embodiment of the ECB's "data-driven, sufficient flexibility" policy logic - neither radical easing nor xm-forex.completely closing the adjustment window. The core is to adapt the policy to "economic resilience under two-way risks."
Inflation: Close to the target and expected to be stable, short-term stickiness does not change the long-term trend
Current inflation trend: The overall inflation level in September rose to 2.2% from 2.0% in August, mainly due to the base effect of energy prices, which pushed the energy price growth rate to narrow from -2.0% to -0.4 %; non-energy inflation has been stable at 2.5% since May. Food price inflation dropped from 3.2% to 3.0% in September. Core inflation excluding energy and food rose slightly from 2.3% to 2.4% (driven by service inflation rising to 3.2%). Non-energy industrial product inflation maintained at 0.8% for three consecutive months.
Labor market: close to full employment, structurally differentiated but overall stable
The unemployment rate in the Eurozone in September was 6.3%, close to a historical low; the employment PMI in October rebounded to 50.8 from 49.7 in September, mainly driven by the growth of service industry employment. Although manufacturing employment has further shrunk, "Indeed job posting data shows that labor demand has shown signs of stabilizing in September."
Salary, “The year-on-year growth rate of negotiated wages has slowed significantly in recent months, and forward-looking indicators show that wage growth will slow down further from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026.” Only “the year-on-year growth rate of per capita employee xm-forex.compensation in the second quarter is more sticky than expected,” and there is no evidence that households’ high inflation perceptions are translated into higher wage demands.
Economic growth: Resilience is highlighted, internal and external pressures are balanced
Domestic demand support: GDP increased by 0.2% in the third quarter, the xm-forex.comprehensive PMI rose from 50.4 in the second quarter to 51.0 in the third quarter, and further rose to 52.2 in October, and the service PMI reached 52 .6 (driven by tourism and digital services); corporate profits have rebounded, and "the government's large expenditures in infrastructure and defense and previous interest rate cuts have supported investment." Although the household savings rate has reached 15.5% (higher than the pre-epidemic average), "it is expected to gradually decline and expand expenditures as financial conditions recover."
External drag: Merchandise exports contracted by 3.1% month-on-month in August, and the PMI of new manufacturing export orders in October was still in the contraction range of 49.0. "The impact of high tariffs on exports and manufacturing investment has not yet fully emerged," but "global economic activity remains resilient (the global xm-forex.comprehensive PMI excluding the euro zone reached 53.0)."
The interest rate cut expectations of the market and institutions have significantly cooled
Market pricing shows that "investors have almost xm-forex.completely ruled out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in 2025, and the probability of another interest rate cut before the end of 2026 is only 40%"; in the October currency analyst survey, "most respondents do not expect another interest rate cut in 2025 and believe that the interest rate cut cycle is over."
The median expectation of survey participants shows that "the next interest rate change will be an interest rate increase rather than an interest rate cut." The core reason is that "the resilience of the macroeconomic outlook makes the market generally believe that the European Central Bank's key interest rate is currently within a reasonable range."
The core consensus of the members: Keeping interest rates unchanged is the best choice
The members believe that "the new data are basically in line with the estimate of the inflation scenario, and the core logic used for inflation forecasts in September has not changed substantially." Although inflation may fall below 2% in 2026, "it is expected to then rise to near the target level (including the impact of the launch of the EU carbon emissions trading system in 2027, that is, Europe's new carbon emission standards will push up inflation. The impact has also been taken into account)".
At the same time, it is believed that policy transmission has achieved results: "Previous interest rate cuts have continued to push corporate bank loan interest rates down to 3.5%, and financing conditions have been relaxed to levels shortly after the start of the tightening cycle", and "monetary policy transmission remains smooth and effective", and the marginal benefits of further interest rate cuts are limited.
And it retains the requirement for policy flexibility to cope with uncertainty: "The global trade policy environment is unstable and geopolitical risks remain high." Inflation risks are distributed in two directions (downward risks include weak exports and financial market corrections, and upward risks include supply chain fragmentation and rising food prices). Maintaining the current interest rate level can make the Governing Council more proactive.
A few disagreements: The window for interest rate cuts has not been closed but the threshold is high
Some members believe that "it is necessary to remain xm-forex.completely open to the need for further interest rate cuts." If "the possibility or impact of downward risks increases and inflation is expected to continue to be below the target," an interest rate cut may be necessary. However, they emphasized that "the threshold for policy action should not be higher than conventional levels" and that the current "economy is not so weak that it will inevitably lead to medium-term inflation below the target."
Most xm-forex.committee members prefer the "prudent operation" strategy. Unless special risks are encountered, most members believe that "the interest rate cutting cycle is over. The current stance of not continuing to cut interest rates is expected to maintain a favorable market outlook. After all, sending a signal that interest rates can continue to be cut will encourage the financial system to continue to accumulate risks (such as overvaluation of some markets)." ; : Inflation is close to the 2% target and expected to be anchored, the labor market is stable, the economy is resilient, and the current interest rate level is considered "sufficient to cope with various shocks." For the potential interest rate cut window in 2026, three major variables need to be focused on:
Inflation persistence: If "excluding the new European carbon emissions agreement, "After the impact of this end, inflation will be lower than the target in 2026 and difficult to pick up", or wage growth will slow down more than expected, triggering the risk of deflation, which may trigger an interest rate cut;
Intensity of external shocks: If a sharp correction in the U.S. financial market produces significant spillover effects, or intensified global trade frictions lead to the collapse of Eurozone exports and domestic demand If fiscal easing in 2026 is less than expected, and household savings rates remain high to curb consumption, monetary policy may need to make up for it.
However, judging from the current xm-forex.committee consensus and market expectations, an interest rate cut in 2026 is still a "small probability event." ", the prudent stance of "data-driven, meeting-by-meeting decisions" will be implemented throughout.
Technical analysis:
Previous articles mentioned that the euro may rely on double bottoms to rebound. The euro has indeed rebounded continuously recently. The meeting minutes explained the reasons why the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. The recent continued rebound also reflected In response to the fundamental policy direction that interest rates in the Eurozone may not fall again in the near future.
1.1600 is a key pressure level and an important price that determines whether the euro exchange rate can turn from a rebound to a shock or even a reversal.
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Keep interest rates unchanged. , the interest rate cut cycle may have ended." The entire content was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of
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