Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- Gold, more than 3515!
- Silver may test the $37.17 support level
- The daily line is at its peak, and gold and silver are low and waiting for a new
- Tariffs from the United States and Europe have been reached, and gold has bottom
- The US dollar/JPY tends to rise, and the trend is subject to the Fed's expectati
market analysis
The U.S. dollar index remains below the key psychological level of 100 as the market holds its breath awaiting PMI data
Wonderful introduction:
Without the depth of the blue sky, you can have the elegance of white clouds; without the magnificence of the sea, you can have the elegance of the creek; without the fragrance of the wilderness, you can have the greenness of the grass. There is no bystander seat in life. We can always find our own position, our own light source, and our own voice.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The U.S. dollar index remains below the key psychological mark of 100, and the market holds its breath waiting for PMI data." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
During the European trading session on Monday (November 3), the U.S. dollar index rose slightly, reporting at 99.8780/960, an increase of 0.17%. Prices were relatively calm during the trading session, with the dollar supported by higher Treasury yields. At the same time, market sentiment remained cautious after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut last week.
ING expects the U.S. dollar index to hover near the high of the three-month range of 100.00-100.25 unless U.S. job market data prompts the market to reprice the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to 100%.
Analysts at Overseas Chinese Bank (OCBC) believe that “due to the government shutdown preventing the release of relevant U.S. data, coupled with the fact that the Fed’s attitude has become more cautious and no longer as hawkish as in the past, these factors are likely to trigger a wave of concentrated liquidation of short positions in the U.S. dollar in the short term.” Analysts also said, “In addition, the market is currently expecting the Fed to cut interest rates again in 2026. "Expectations may have been too high; if these expectations continue to be lowered, it may lead to further appreciation of the dollar."
The market re-evaluates the strength of the Fed's easing cycle
According to CME's FedWatch Tool, market expectations for another interest rate cut in December have dropped from over 90% to 71%.
The market began to reassess the intensity of the Fed's easing cycle. The market focus will now be on the signals sent by the private sector data. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index for November will be released today, which includes employment sub-data.
It is unclear whether the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data will be released tomorrow, but the monthly Automatic Data Processing xm-forex.company (ADP) employment report released on Wednesday will have a major impact on the market, which may be the biggest opportunity for the dollar's bear market trend to restart this week.
On Friday, two Fed officials, Lori Logan and Beth Hammock, said that if they had the right to vote, they would vote against the Fed's decision to cut interest rates last week. The two officials will join the policy-setting Federal Open Market xm-forex.committee (FOMC) next year.
Tensions in U.S. currency markets
The second factor supporting dollar buying is tensions in U.S. currency markets. Through quantitative tightening, the Fed has been reducing bank reserves this year, and the U.S. Treasury has been increasing its cash reserves (i.e., the Treasury General Account) from $300 billion to $950 billion. U.S. money markets have transitioned from an environment of excess liquidity to the current state of tension. This is exemplified by data on Friday, which showed banks secured $50 billion in overnight funding through the Fed's standing repo facility. Although market interest rates are supposed to be in the middle of the Fed's 3.75%-4.00% range, banks are paying 4.00%.
Tight money markets usually support the US dollar, and attention needs to be paid to whether the difficulty of US dollar financing will spread to the field of cross-currency basis swaps in the international market, such as when banks convert euros into US dollars for financing. If this happens, the EUR/USD exchange rate will face greater downward pressure, but there are currently no signs of this.
ISM, PMI will test the momentum of the US dollar
Later today, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.4, slightly higher than 49.1 in September; the ISM price index is expected to be 62.4, higher than the previous value of 61.9.
If the data is higher than expected, it may strengthen the Fed's cautious attitude and push the dollar to strengthen;
If the data is lower than expected, it may reignite market expectations for an interest rate cut.
In addition, many members of the Federal Open Market xm-forex.committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will give speeches. Traders will be watching these policy xm-forex.comments closely for clues on the Fed's interpretation of the latest economic data amid slowing global economic growth.
Technical Analysis
The U.S. dollar index is currently trading around 99.78, maintaining its upward trend after breaking through the downward trend line resistance of 99.41.
The 50-day exponential moving average (50EMA) is at 99.17, which is higher than the 200-day exponential moving average (200EMA) at 98.63, confirming the short-term bullish structure;
The momentum indicator shows strength, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 68. Although it is close to the overbought range, it has not yet shown a signal of exhaustion of momentum.
Short-term resistance levels are around 100.10 and 100.63 respectively, while support levels are at 99.41 and 9Around 8.98.
As long as the price remains above 99.40, the upward trend is expected to continue; if it falls below 98.98, market sentiment may turn to consolidation.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The U.S. dollar index remains below the key psychological mark of 100, and the market holds its breath waiting for PMI data". It was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Sharing is as simple as a gust of wind can bring refreshing, as pure as a flower can bring fragrance. Gradually my dusty heart opened up, and I understood that sharing is actually as simple as the technology.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here