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The Bank of England does not cut interest rates, but why did the pound rise and fall? The real test is approaching!

Wonderful introduction:

Since ancient times, there have been joys and sorrows, and since ancient times, there have been sorrowful moon and songs. But we never understood it, and we thought everything was just a distant memory. Because there is no real experience, there is no deep feeling in the heart.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: The Bank of England does not cut interest rates, but why did the pound rise and fall? The real test is approaching!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday (September 18) at 19:00 Beijing time, the Bank of England Monetary Policy xm-forex.committee (MPC) maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.00% with a 7-2 vote, in line with market expectations, and at the same time reduced the annual quantitative tightening (QT) scale from 100 billion pounds to 70 billion pounds, slightly higher than the market median expectation of 67.5 billion pounds.

This decision highlights the central bank's cautious trade-offs on inflation stickiness and weak economic growth, amid the high annual CPI rate in August (3.8%) and core CPI (3.8%) and the third-quarter GDP forecast increased to 0.4%.

The Bank of England Monetary Policy xm-forex.committee (MPC) held the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.00% with a 7-2 vote, in line with market expectations, while reducing the annual quantitative tightening (QT) scale from £100 billion to £70 billion, slightly higher than the market's median expectations of £67.5 billion. This fluctuation reflects the market's brief optimism about interest rates stabilization being rapidly diluted by the supply pressure of QT slowing down, and trading sentiment shifted from "dove-like expectation" to "neutral digestion".

The current market background needs to be placed in the global macro context. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% yesterday (September 17). The dot chart implies that only two further easings have been further in the year. Coupled with the risk aversion sentiment caused by Trump's tariff remarks, the US Treasury yield curve flattened and the US dollar index stabilized at 101.50. The ECB maintained a 2% deposit rate last week, highlighting inflation uncertainty. In the UK, wage growth stickiness (increased corporate social security contributions delayed labor costs down to 2026) has intensified the differences between MPC: dovish members Singra and Taylor advocate a 25 basis point rate cut.Chief economist Peel insisted on maintaining the QT scale, saying its market disturbances were limited. Before the resolution, retail investors bet on "interest rates remain stable and push the pound to break 1.37", while institutions expect no action before November, and the probability of interest rate cuts is only 33%.

Instant market: The pound rises and falls, and the bond market stabilizes

The market trajectory after the resolution was announced confirms the trader's "selling facts" instinct. The pound took advantage of the stable interest rate and the positive trend rose to 1.3659 in the short term, with trading volume soaring by 20%, and long positions pouring in. But QT reduced the details - Treasury bond sales in fiscal year 2025/26 were distributed at a ratio of 40:40:20 (short-term, medium-term, long-term), and reduced long-term Treasury bond issuance to buffer market turmoil - triggering supply concerns, and the pound quickly fell by more than 30 points to below 1.3650.

Bond market reaction differentiation: the two-year British bond yield fell by 1.5 basis points to 3.95%, reflecting the heating up of short-term easing expectations; the 10-year yield was almost unchanged, falling by 0.5 basis points to 4.62%, indicating long-term investors' vigilance about fiscal pressure. FTSE100 rose slightly by 0.1% to 8250, with bank stocks leading the rise of 0.5%. The energy and consumer sectors were under pressure and transactions were flat.

xm-forex.compare history, the interest rate cut in August 2024 (5.25% to 5.00%) caused the pound to plummet by 50 points, and the 10-year yield soared to 4.80%, which the market interpreted as "premature easing." The stability this time is more like the "waiting and watching model" in June 2025. The pound fluctuates by only 10 points, and the yield curve stabilizes. The latest quote shows that the pound rebounded more than 150 points from its August low of 1.3500, but the intraday decline smoothed out some of the gains, highlighting the double-edged sword effect of QT slowdown: while alleviating the pressure on bond supply, strengthening the narrative of "policy has not deviated from the preset path" to curb bull momentum. The reaction proved this change: before the resolution, retail investors hotly discussed that "the pound will soar after the Fed cut interest rates"; after the announcement, institutions quickly closed their positions, retail investors followed up and sold out, and the VIX index briefly approached 15.

Market Interpretation: Institutional rationality, retail investor sentiment differentiation

The impact of resolutions on Fed rate cut expectations and market sentiment highlights the differences in transatlantic policy. The Fed's "risk management-style" interest rate cut and Powell's "meeting-by-conference" statements are superimposed on the dot map (4.00% at the end of 2025), which puts the US dollar under short-term pressure but does not collapse. Bank of England Governor Bailey stressed that "there has not been out of the predicament, and interest rate cuts need to be gradually and cautious." The policy statement retains the wording "monetary policy has not developed according to the preset path", implying a tolerance limit for the CPI peak (4% in September).

Interpretation of differentiation: Institutions focus on the "structural dove" of QT slowdown. A senior economist said that "70 billion pounds minimize the impact of the bond market and leave room for interest rate cuts", which was highly forwarded, echoing Bailey's statement of "continue to reduce the balance sheet." Retail investors are more emotional, saying that "interest rates remain unchanged and cheat mortgage holders", or xm-forex.comparing the Federal Reserve "why the UK is so conservative", some pessimists say that "refusing to return to US debt, the pound will be cool."

The subtle injection of liquidity by QT adjustments is at the heart of emotional change. Before the resolution, the market was worried that long-term treasury bond auctions (yields hit a high since 1998 at the beginning of this month) had aggravated supply squeeze; this time, the ratio of short-term/medium-term bonds was tilted at 40:20, indirectly appeased bond bulls, and the front end of the British bond curve was flattened by 0.8 basis points. xm-forex.compared with the launch of QT in 2022 (100 billion triggered the LDI crisis, and the yield soared by 30 basis points), this slowdown is more like a "soft landing" signal, and institutions raised their liquidity forecasts for the fourth quarter. Institutional thread emphasized that "QT slowdown strengthens cautious narratives, and short-term bulls of the pound need to be wary of 1.36 resistance", while retail investors have derived dissatisfaction from the xm-forex.comparison of "The Fed has cut twice, and we are still stuck at 4%", amplifying the selling sentiment. The intraday amplitude of the pound reached 45 points, higher than the average of 30 points in the previous week.

Trend outlook: short-term fluctuations, long-term gradual

In the short term (to the end of the year), the pound may fluctuate in the range of 1.35-1.37. The QT slowdown provides a buffer, but the CPI peak and wage stickiness suppresses MPC radicalization, and Bailey's "gradual and cautious" tone implies that the probability of interest rate cuts rose to 40% in November (market pricing 30%). If GDP confirms a 0.4% growth in the third quarter, the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5%, and a 25 basis point cut in December will become a reality, with the pound target of 1.40. External risks such as the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine or the rebound of oil prices will delay easing and the 10-year yield will move up by 10 basis points. xm-forex.compared with the Fed's "two downs" path, the UK's "gradual" pays more attention to inflation anchoring to avoid rebound-style excessive easing in 2023. Institutional outlook said, "QT speed reduction is a bridge that connects caution with future interest rate cuts, but we need to be wary of the slow release impact of US tariffs." Retail investors have a pragmatic perspective: "After holding steady, mortgage holders breathe a sigh of relief, but don't expect a rapid decline; the probability of a soft landing in the economy is 60%. "

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