Milan's Fed casts its only vote against the first appearance, gold prices fell from historical highs, the Fed cuts interest rates as expected

Basic news

On Thursday (September 18, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,668.12/ounce, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that the employment market was weak, and market participants interpreted the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Gold prices fell from the record high of $3,703.35/ounce on Wednesday; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.76/barrel, and oil prices fell on Wednesday. Previous data showed that the increase in U.S. diesel inventories caused concerns about demand, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected.

Stock Market

U.S. Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that the job market was weak, and the Dow closed higher after fluctuating during Powell's speech.

The Fed said it would steadily cut interest rates for the rest of the year, with policy makers raising concerns about weak labor markets. The Fed expects to cut interest rates twice this year, at 25 basis points each time.

At the press conference, Powell talked about the increasing downward risks in employment, which are more worthy of attention than inflation, but he also emphasized that inflation risks still need to be evaluated and managed.

According to data xm-forex.compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group, investors have digested the rate cut in advance.

Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, said: "Powell suppressed the initial enthusiasm for a more radical easing path. He pointed to weak labor markets but said moreA substantial rate cut will be left to a more serious economic situation. "The Fed also raised inflation expectations, highlighting the delicate balance of monetary policy between coping with weak employment and controlling inflation," he added. ”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.57% to 46018.32 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.10% to 6600.35 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.32% to 22261.33 points.

Financial stocks such as American Express helped boost the Dow. The Fed's decisions and prospects will test Wall Street's recent rally, which has been supported by expectations of rate cuts and the rebound in trading enthusiasm for AI-related stocks.

Bao Will also responded to multiple questions about whether the Fed is independent of the executive branch. On Tuesday, White House economic adviser Milan swore in as Fed director; on the same day, the appeals court rejected President Trump's request to remove Fed Director Cook.

Nvidia dragged down Nasdaq, its share price fell 2.6%, and human resources software provider Workday's share price rose 7.2%, after reports that rights activist investor Elliott Management already owns more than $2 billion in the xm-forex.company's shares .

Gold market

Gold prices closed down nearly 1% on Wednesday, falling from a record high that was hit earlier in the session, with market participants interpreting the speech of Fed Chairman Powell.

Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,658.25 per ounce, and had hit a record high of $3,707.40 earlier in the session. Gold prices have risen nearly 6% so far this month. U.S. December gold futures closed down 0.2% to $3,717.8 per ounce.

The Fed announced interest rate cuts 25 basis points and said it will steadily reduce borrowing costs for the rest of the year. Powell said of interest rate outlook that the Fed will "make decisions in a row."

"The Fed released a signal of uncertainty, which Powell called it a 'risk-management rate cut', triggered some fully understandable profit settlement," said TaiWong, an independent metals trader. "There is a pullback, or at least into a consolidation state, is a healthy trend; I don't think there will be a particularly deep pullback. Unless gold prices fall below the main technical support level of $3,550, the short-term uptrend should remain intact. ”

This is the first rate cut this year by the Federal Reserve, which has been keeping policy unchanged since three cuts in 2024. Gold is usually more attractive when interest rates fall, as low yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold. As a traditional tool to hedge uncertainty, gold prices have risen 39% so far this year.

Deutsche raises its gold price estimate to $4,000 per ounce next year, after a forecast of $3,700. In other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.4% to $41.51 per ounce; platinum fell 2.2% to $1,360 per ounce; palladium fell 2.6% to $11 per ounce;$45.44. Oil prices fell on Wednesday after data showed rising U.S. diesel stocks sparked concerns about demand and the Federal Reserve cut rates as expected. Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.76% at $68.22 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures closed down 0.73% at $64.05.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (IEA) said on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, exports increased significantly, and imports plummeted. But analysts say the increase in distillate stocks has exacerbated demand concerns and suppressed prices. "It looks like the market has reacted to diesel, which is the weakness of the entire oil market," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup.

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday and said it would steadily reduce borrowing costs for the rest of the year to cope with concerns about weak job markets.

In terms of supply, Kazmunaygaz, a Kazakhstan national energy xm-forex.company, said on Wednesday that Kazakhstan resumed oil supply through the Baku-Tbilisi-Jehan oil pipeline on September 13. Supplies were suspended last month due to pollution problems.

In recent weeks, Ukraine's attack on Russia's energy infrastructure has intensified, and Russia's oil supply risks have also become the focus.

Russian oil pipeline transport xm-forex.companies warned producers that they may have to cut production after Ukraine attacked important export ports and refineries with drones.

Forex Market

After the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by one quarter percentage point, the dollar fell to a four-year low against the euro, and then reversed its decline and moved higher in trading on the day. The rate cut, and the forecast that the two remaining policy meetings of the year, are expected to cut interest rates by one quarter of each point in the remaining two policy meetings this year, suggests that Fed officials have begun to downplay the risk of continued inflation in government trade policies.

Blair Shwedo, head of investment-grade sales and trading at Bank of America, said the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Risk assets and U.S. Treasury bonds both appear to be paying attention to the Fed's expectations that it will cut interest rates twice this year. Fed officials have gradually leaned towards the idea that Trump’s tariffs will only have a temporary impact on inflation, and the latest forecasts are consistent with this view.

This rate cut is the first action of the Federal Open Market xm-forex.committee (FOMC), which formulates policies, since December, reducing the policy interest rate to the range of 4.00%-4.25%. Despite U.S. President Trump on Monday calling for a "larger" cut to the benchmark interest rate, the 25 basis point rate cut is still widely expected.

Federal Chairman Powell said the Fed was in a "session-by-session decision-making state" in terms of interest rate outlook and characterized Wednesday's move as a risk management rate cut, adding that he did not see the need to act quickly on interest rates, which provided some support for the dollar.

Fed governor Waller and vice chairman Bowman, who is in charge of regulation, support a more consistent pace of rate cuts, who are Trump-appointed officials who object to policy decisions to keep interest rates stable in late July.

The euro fell 0.3% against the US dollar to $1.18305, and rose to $1.19185 at the beginning of the session, the strongest since June 2021. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against the other six currencies, rose 0.3%.

Data from earlier in the day showed that the decline in single-family residential buildings and future building permits in the U.S. in August offset the impact of the decline in mortgage interest rates, amid a surplus of unsold new homes and a weak labor market.

As the Fed finally cut interest rates again, many market participants believe the dollar will fall further, but analysts say it is far from inevitable.

Juan Perez, head of trading at MonexUSA in Washington, said, "To some extent, I think the dollar doesn't necessarily fall xm-forex.completely because you have to take into account the situation outside the United States and global economic growth. The overall narrative of global growth is not optimistic. Not everyone else is doing particularly well."

The Canadian dollar fell about 0.2% against the dollar on Wednesday, after the Bank of Canada lowered its key policy interest rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 2.5%, in line with expectations, citing weaker job markets and less worries about potential inflation pressures.

UK inflation data met expectations, with the pound rising 0.08% on the day at $1.36,575, not far from the two and a half month high. The dollar rose 0.1% against the yen to 146.655 yen as the Bank of Japan is expected to hold a policy meeting on Friday and the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

The October 4 vote will be the focus, and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new leader in this vote to replace the outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

International News

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 87.7%

According to CME's "Feder Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 87.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in December is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 19.0%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 79.9%.

Milan Federal Reserve's debut: casting the only vote against

Federal Director Stephen Milan only 24 hours after taking office. Milan is the only one who opposes the Fed's 25 basis points rate cut in September, and he instead votes for a larger 50 basis points cut. Analysts have speculated that Trump-appointed Fed governors Waller and Bowman may also be opponents of support for a larger rate cut, but both chose to support the majority's 25 basis point move. Despite skepticism about rate cuts in recent months, hawkish Kansas City Fed Chairman Schmid also raised his hand to favor a 25 basis point cut.

Japan will formulate the "AI Basic Plan" within the year

The Japanese government recently held the first meeting of the "Artificial Intelligence (AI) Strategy Headquarters" at the Prime Minister's Office, officially launching the AI ​​strategic planning work at the national level. The meeting made it clear that the "Basic AI Plan" will be formulated within the year, with the goal of building "the easiest country in the world to develop and apply AI", and emphasized that under the guidance of the government, it is necessary to strongly support the research and development of trustworthy "domestic AI" and at the same time sort out and adjust the existing systems and regulatory frameworks to clear obstacles for the widespread use of AI.

Trump policy aroused dissent within the Republican Party Johnson postponed the voting for tariffs until next year

Anxiety within the Republican Party about Trump's trade policy emerged publicly in the House of Representatives this week, with a small number of lawmakers trying to fight back against the president's iconic foreign economic strategy and demanding a greater voice in tariff formulation. Although the objection did not last long, it revealed the cracks in the party's internal tariff issues, and its economic impact could become the core issue of next year's midterm elections. Although Congress has legally the power to set tariffs, Trump has unilaterally imposed tariffs on dozens of trading partners by using emergency authorization in recent years, and the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives obedience to Trump's words makes it harder for the opposition to launch a vote challenge on tariffs. House Speaker Mike Johnson quickly calmed protests from a handful of Republican lawmakers on Tuesday, postponing the head-on confrontation over Trump's tariff legitimacy until at least the end of January next year. Voting may follow the holiday consumption season, when consumers' attitudes to tariffs may become a key reference for lawmakers.

The Argentine central bank denies that the peso broke through the upper limit of the trading range, citing technical factors

The Argentine central bank denies that the peso had broken through the upper limit of its trading range on Wednesday, saying that its calculation results are slightly different from the figures derived from the public disclosure formula. According to the agreement reached by Argentina with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April, the upper and lower limits of the range gradually expanded with a monthly increase of 1% and evenly distributed to each day. According to this calculation method, the peso once reached 1474.5 pesos against 1 US dollar on Wednesday, exceeding the upper limit of 1474.345. However, the official Argentina trading system only allows quotes in units of 50 points, so in actual operations, the central bank will round the upper limit number when calculating it itself. That is to say, the central bank has a cap of 1474.5, which means that from the perspective of the central bank, the peso has not broken through the range. According to the $20 billion agreement signed by Argentina and the IMF, once the upper limit is exceeded, the central bank under President Mile can directly enter the market to intervene and sell the US dollar.

Zelensky met with the Speaker of the European Parliament to discuss the process of joining the alliance and other issues

On the 17th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky met with the Speaker of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola and attended the press conference together. This is Metsola's fourth visit to Ukraine during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Zelensky posted on social media that the two sides had in-depth discussions on key issues between Ukraine and European institutions.This includes supporting Ukraine's negotiation process to join the EU, emphasizing the importance of starting the first "cluster" negotiation as soon as possible. The two sides also discussed matters related to sanctions against Russia.

The Finance Minister calls Gaza a "real estate rich mine" and is negotiating with the United States on the post-war division of the region

Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said on the 17th that the Gaza Strip is a "real estate rich mine" and he is negotiating with the United States on how to divide the region after the war. The far-right minister said at a property meeting in Tel Aviv that the Gaza Strip had “a real estate boom that could be self-sufficient” and he had begun negotiations with Americans.

The German Chancellor called on the people to be prepared for reform

The German Chancellor Mertz delivered a speech in the Bundestag on the 17th, calling on the people to be prepared for reform, which is related to the "Future of Germany." The German Bundestag held a general debate on the same day. In his speech, Merz said that Germany needs to make major decisions and focus on solving some "very fundamental problems" and that Germany must choose the right path. Merz called on the German people to "have more confidence" in their country. In the report, Deutsche News Agency said that Mertz called on the public to understand the necessary reforms, but did not explain the specific content, including whether the public's concerns are "acting" against the German welfare system.

Domestic News

China and ASEAN countries launched a joint innovation action for the application of meteorological AI models

On September 17, the 4th China-ASEAN Meteorological Cooperation Forum with the theme of "Digital and Intelligent Empowering Meteorological Cooperation Early Warning for Inclusive Benefiting People's Livelihood" opened in Nanning, Guangxi. Representatives from the meteorological and hydrological departments of China and ASEAN countries, the World Meteorological Organization, relevant universities and enterprises discussed regional meteorological cooperation and development. At the meeting, representatives of China and ASEAN countries jointly launched a joint innovation action on the application of China-ASEAN meteorological AI model. It is understood that this joint innovation action focuses on four aspects: joint innovation, integration of data, joint cultivation of talents, and building a home together, and jointly promotes the digital transformation and development of meteorological and intelligent China and ASEAN countries. All parties will build a "China-ASEAN Meteorological Home" that is jointly built, shared and shared, establish a cooperation platform that integrates "physical space" with "face-to-face" discussions and exchanges and "end-to-end" open and integrated "digital space", build a regional meteorological disaster warning network, and helps regional sustainable development.

KPMG China: China's automobile industry is focusing on breakthroughs in "AI+Auto" technology

On September 17, KPMG China held the "2025 KPMG China Automobile Industry Summit and the 8th Automobile Technology 50 List Press Conference" in Shanghai. Yang Jie, chief partner of KPMG China East and West China, said that China's automobile industry is focusing on breakthroughs in "AI+ Automobile" technology to build core xm-forex.competitiveness. Yang Jie further stated that China's automobile industry should deeply respond to the requirements of the national "Artificial Intelligence +" action and truly integrate AI technology into core scenarios such as intelligent driving, smart cockpits, and vehicle energy consumption management. More importantly, we must avoid falling into the trap of "homogeneity" of technology, increase R&D investment, and take the initiativeJoin AI xm-forex.companies and scientific research institutions to build a cooperation platform to transform intelligent networking capabilities into differentiated advantages that others cannot take away. KPMG China will continue to leverage its professional advantages and work with all parties to contribute to the prosperity and development of the automotive industry.

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