Oil prices hit a week's lowest level, Trump threatens to significantly increase Indian tariffs, gold prices are expected to hit 3,400

Basic news

On Tuesday (August 5, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,378.50/ounce, and gold prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Monday, after last week's economic data stimulated expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and Trump's pressure on India also increased the market's risk aversion; U.S. crude oil trading was around $66.30/barrel, and oil prices fell to the lowest level in a week on Monday, after OPEC+ agreed to increase production again in September, which aggravated the market's concerns about oversupply, and previous U.S. data showed that fuel demand in the largest consumer country was unremarkable.

Stock Market

The three major U.S. stock indexes all hit the biggest single-day percentage gain since May 27 on Monday, with investors buying low after the sell-off on the previous trading day and increasing their bets on September rate cuts after weaker than expected employment data were released.

Tesla rose 2.2% after the electric car maker awarded CEO Musk 96 million shares worth about $29 billion.

The stock market was sold off last Friday, with the July employment data released at that time being unsatisfactory, and the employment data for May and June were significantly revised down.

Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategy at Horizon Investments, said: "Today there were only a small amount of low-price selling. This does show that investors are looking for opportunities to enter the market, which is a pretty healthy signal. The labor market is a bit worrying...it is definitely weaker than people expected before. The rate cut is expected to heat up again, which offsets the former to some extent.Very capable. ”

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market currently believes that the probability of a rate cut in September is about 84%. Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice by the end of this year, at 25 basis points each. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have hit record highs recently.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.34% to 44,173.64 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.47% to 6,329.94 points; the Nasdaq climbed 1.95% to 21,053.58 points.

Investors are still digesting the U.S. President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last Friday. In the matter, he accused McEntarfer of forging weak jobs data. Also last Friday, Fed governor Coogler resigned, which could open the door for Trump to change the Fed. Trump has been pushing for the Fed to cut interest rates.

In terms of trade, Trump said on Monday that he would significantly raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, while New Delhi said it would take steps to safeguard its own interests, saying the U.S. president aims to target it "unreasonable."

The U.S. second-quarter earnings season is xm-forex.coming to an end, but investors are still looking forward to xm-forex.companies like Walt Disney to release their earnings this week.

Spotify rose 5% in stocks that rose on Monday because the sound LeFlower Media announced plans to raise monthly fees for its premium personal subscription services in some markets starting in September.

JobyAviation rose 18.8% after the xm-forex.company said it would acquire helicopter-sharing xm-forex.company BladeAirMobility passenger transport business for up to $125 million. BladeAir shares rose 17.2%.

Among the stocks that fell that day, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares fell 2.7% as investors digested the xm-forex.company's $3.8 billion write-down and quarterly operating profit declines disclosed on Saturday.

Gold market

Gold prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Monday, Previous last week’s economic data stimulated expectations for the Fed’s rate cut. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,372.15 per ounce, the highest since July 24. U.S. gold futures closed up 0.8% to $3,426.4.

RJO Futures senior market strategist Daniel Pavilonis said, “Now, there is a greater chance of a rate cut in September, and a greater chance of another rate cut in December, coupled with the negative factors of inflation, I think gold is quite bullish.” Last week’s data showed that U.S. job growth in July was lower than expected, while non-farm jobs were sharply lowered by 258,000 in the first two months, indicating a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. In addition, as tariffs begin to increase the cost of some xm-forex.commodities, the Fed's preferred balanceQuantity indicator - U.S. PCE inflation data rose by 0.3% in June after it revised up to 0.2% in May.

According to the CMEFedWatch tool, traders currently believe the probability of a rate cut in September is 87.8%, up from just over 63% a week ago.

U.S. Trade Representative Greer said in a conversation aired on Sunday that U.S. President Trump's tariffs imposed on dozens of countries last week are likely to remain unchanged, rather than being cut in subsequent negotiations.

Otherwise, spot silver was $37.35 per ounce, up 0.9%. Platinum rose 1.3% to $1,332.20; palladium fell 1.6% to $1,188.90, and hit a three-week low at the beginning of the session. Oil market

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in a week on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to increase production again in September, increasing market concerns about oversupply, after U.S. data showed fuel demand in the largest consumer country was unremarkable.

Brent crude oil futures fell 1.3% to close at $68.76 a barrel; U.S. crude oil fell 1.5% to close at $66.29 a barrel. Both contracts settled at their lowest prices in a week after falling nearly 3% last Friday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (collectively known as OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to increase oil production in September by 547,000 barrels per day. This latest series of accelerated production growth aimed at seizing market share is in line with market expectations and marks an early xm-forex.comprehensive reversal of the organization's largest batch of production cuts. OPEC+'s previous production cuts were about 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand.

While OPEC+ backed its decision on a healthy market fundamentals, U.S. government data released last week showed that U.S. gasoline demand in May was the weakest since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and May was the beginning of the U.S. summer driving season.

The data also showed that U.S. oil production hit a monthly record high in May, exacerbating concerns about global oversupply.

Oil traders are currently hedging the possibility of OPEC+'s further increase in supply, and the organization may discuss further lifting the 1.65 million bpd cut at its next meeting on September 7, adding pressure to oil prices.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect that the eight OPEC+ countries that have increased production since March will actually increase supply to 1.7 million bpd, as other member countries have cut production after overproduction.

U.S. President Trump threatens to impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russian crude oil buyers to force Moscow to stop the war in Ukraine.

Trump said on Monday that he would raise tariffs on India as India buys Russian oil, after two Indian government sources told Reuters over the weekend that India will continue to go from Moscow despite Trump's threatsBuy oil.

UBS analysts, "All the market's eyes will now turn to US President Trump's decision on Russia this Friday and whether he imposes secondary sanctions/tariffs against buyers of Russian oil."

The dollar rebounded slightly on Monday, rectifying recent trends. Three important events affecting the market last Friday highlighted the vulnerability of the dollar: poor U.S. jobs report performance, a resignation of a Federal Reserve director, and President Trump's firing of a bureau chief. These situations hit the dollar, prompting investors to step up bets on the Fed's upcoming interest rate cut.

But analysts say the dollar’s rebound on Monday could be short-lived, given uncertainty in U.S. decision making and finally cracking in the U.S. economy, a wide-scale decline could reappear.

Last Friday data showed that U.S. job growth in July was lower than expected, while non-farm jobs were significantly downgraded by 258,000 in the first two months, indicating a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions.

MonexUSA head of trading Juan Perez said: "The United States appears to be experiencing a slowdown in various industries that are beginning to question the benefits of restricting overseas production and procurement."

He added: "While U.S. economic indicators suggest that the Fed may provide support through interest rate cuts, there is not much optimism around the world."

In afternoon trading, the dollar rose against xm-forex.commodities-linked currencies such as the euro, Swiss franc, and Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The dollar rose 0.5% against the Swiss franc to $0.8078, and the decline of the Swiss franc was not surprising after Trump imposed one of the world's highest tariffs on Switzerland in the White House's global trade reset plan.

The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar also weakened against the dollar on Monday, with the Australian dollar down 0.2% to $0.6463 and the New Zealand dollar down 0.3% to $0.5904. The dollar rose 0.5% to 0.8081 against the Swiss franc and rose 0.3% to 146.945 against the yen.

In other developments, Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, last Friday, accusing her of fraudulent employment data.

The unexpected resignation of Fed Director Coogler also opened the door for Trump to make his moves at the Fed much earlier than expected. Trump has been in a bad relationship with the Fed because it did not cut interest rates as soon as possible.

These developments caused the US dollar to fall more than 2% against the yen last Friday and about 1.5% against the euro. The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1568 on Monday, and the pound to $1.3275, with little change.

Trump said on Sunday that he will announce the candidates to fill the Fed's vacant positions and the new head of the U.S. Bureau of Statistics in the xm-forex.coming days.

The US dollar rose slightly 0.1% against a basket of currencies to 98.77, down more than 1.3% last Friday. The dollar rose 3.4% in July, the largest single-month increase since it rose 5% in April 2022, and the first single-month increase this year, because the market is more at ease with Trump's trade policy and economic data remains flexible in the face of tariffs.

According to CME's FedWatch data, since employment data is weaker than expected, the market currently believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points next month is 84%, and it is expected to lower interest rates by nearly 60 basis points by December, which means that interest rates will be cut twice, 25 basis points each, and the probability of lowering interest rates for the third time is 40%.

International News

Synchronous warning of Wall Street giants: Prepare to face a pullback in the U.S. stock market forecasters from many Wall Street giants collectively issued warnings to remind customers to prepare for the pullback in the stock market and point out that high stock valuations conflict with weaker economic data. On Monday, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and EvercoreISI all warned that the S&P 500 could see a short-term correction in the xm-forex.coming weeks to months. The index has previously rebounded strongly from its April lows to record highs. Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson expects corrections to reach 10% this quarter, with tariffs hitting consumers and corporate balance sheets. Evercore's JulianEmanuel expects the S&P 500 to fall as much as 15%. The Deutsche Bank team led by ParagThatte pointed out that considering that the stock market has been rising for more than three consecutive months, it should have fallen slightly long ago. "In the past few weeks, we have noticed investors should expect a small correction in the third quarter."

Feder Daly: The opportunity to cut interest rates is more likely to be more than twice in the year

San Fed Fed Chairman Daly said that given the increasing evidence that the job market is weak and there is no sign that tariff inflation continues, the opportunity to cut interest rates is approaching. Daly said of the Fed's decision last week, "I'm willing to wait another cycle, but I can't wait forever." Although this does not mean that the September rate cut is a foregone conclusion, she said: "I would tend to think that every meeting in the future will be a real-time meeting to think about policy adjustments." Daly said that two 25 basis points cuts this year still seem to be an appropriate readjustment, and it's important to see whether interest rates are cuts in September and December, rather than whether the rate cuts will happen. Daly said, "If inflation rebounds and spreads, or the labor market recovers, interest rate cuts can certainly be reduced less than two times, but it is more likely that more than two rate cuts have to be carried out. If the labor market looks to be entering a weak stage and we do not see the impact of inflation spillovers, we should be prepared to cut more interest rates."

The Israeli media said that the Israeli Prime Minister tends to occupy Gaza xm-forex.completely

According to Israel Channel 12, local time, on the evening of August 4, local time, citing news from officials of the Israeli Prime Minister's OfficeIsraeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "inclined to expand Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip and control the entire Gaza Strip." According to reports, the Israeli cabinet will hold a decision-making meeting on this matter on Tuesday (August 5). Netanyahu confirmed earlier that a security cabinet meeting will be held this week to discuss the next deployment of Gaza's military operations and how to xm-forex.command the army to achieve the war goal - defeating the enemy, rescuing all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.

India responded to Trump's threat

In response to US President Trump's threat of significantly increasing tariffs on India, and the United States and Europe accused India of importing and even reselling Russian oil after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randir Jaiswar issued a statement on the evening of August 4 local time, saying, "The accusations against India are obviously unfair. India will take all necessary measures to safeguard national interests and economic security, just like all major economies." The statement stated that India's turn to buying Russian oil is "a passive choice" - after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, traditional supply sources were transferred to Europe, and the United States clearly supported India's move to stabilize the global energy market at that time. The statement pointed out that India's imports aim to ensure that citizens can access affordable energy and are a necessary measure under global market volatility. It is interesting to note that countries criticizing India's trade with Russia is larger, and their imports are mostly non-rigid. Data shows that the EU and Russia trade in goods reached 67.5 billion euros in 2024, and the service trade in 2023 was 17.2 billion euros, both far exceeding the total trade volume between India and Russia during the same period. In 2024, the EU's liquefied natural gas imports from Russia hit a record high of 16.5 million tons. European-Russia trade covers many fields such as fertilizers, minerals, chemicals, steel and transportation equipment. The United States continues to import chemical products such as uranium hexafluoride for the nuclear industry, palladium and fertilizers for the electric vehicle industry from Russia.

Kerman Palace: Russia highly appreciates its contact with Witkov

According to the Russian Satellite News Agency on August 4, Russian President's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on the 4th that Russia believes that its contact with U.S. President's Special Envoy for the Middle East is of great significance, pragmatic and extremely effective. Peskov told reporters: "We always welcome contacts with Mr. Witkov, who believe that such contacts are crucial, rich in content and significant results."

The survey shows that OPEC production remains stable Saudi production cuts offset the impact of the UAE's production increase

According to the survey, crude oil production of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remained stable last month as Saudi production cuts partially offset the impact of further production increase in the UAE. The survey shows that OPEC's average daily output in July was 28.31 million barrels, basically the same as the previous month. Saudi Arabia cuts output by 220,000 barrels per day to 9.53 million barrels per day, partially offsetting the increase in June to transfer supplies out of the region during the Israeli-Iran conflict. The UAE's production increase is about half of Saudi Arabia's production cuts.

U.S. in June due to the decline in aircraft ordersThe orders for domestic factories fell sharply

New orders in the U.S. manufacturing industry fell in June, as xm-forex.commercial aircraft orders sharply decreased, reversing the situation of a sharp increase in aircraft orders last month. Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Monday showed that factory orders fell 4.8% month-on-month in June, after factory orders revised upward to an increase of 8.3% in May. Economists had previously predicted factory orders would fall by 4.8%, while previously released data showed factory orders rose by 8.2% in May. Orders in June increased by 3.8% year-on-year. Manufacturing, which accounts for 10.2% of the U.S. economy, is still subject to Trump's high tariffs on imported goods. Manufacturing activity fell to a nine-month low in July, a survey released by the American Supply Management Association on Friday showed.

Domestic News

Humanoid robot "order wave" surges, performances and guides are still the "main battlefield"

The reporter noticed that recently many top contestants have won large orders. In front of them, there was a humanoid bipedal robot OEM service procurement project with a total budget of 124 million yuan, and in the future, UBL won the bid for a robot equipment procurement project with a total budget of 90.5115 million yuan. Looking at the timeline, as of August 4, Qichacha data showed that Zhiyuan Robot has won 9 projects this year, Yushu Technology has won 68 projects, and UBY won 16 projects. The number of winning bids is close to or exceeds the full-year level last year. Overall, the main application scenarios of the above orders are interactive service areas such as presentations and pavilions. The industry believes that starting from performance and guidance scenarios with high attention and low technical thresholds is a xm-forex.common law and pragmatic choice for the promotion of new technologies, and it is also a necessary basis and starting point for subsequent expansion to industrial manufacturing and home service scenarios. The current "order wave" shown by the humanoid robot industry is a series of footprints that have been put on this long industrial journey.

Shanghai has built at least 5 large xm-forex.computing power centers this year

In an era when AI models swept the world, "computing power is productivity" has become a consensus in the entire industry. Recently, the Shanghai Municipal xm-forex.communications Administration issued a notice, intending to organize a special action for high-quality development of xm-forex.computing power infrastructure in "Computing Power Pujiang" in 2025, to promote the two-way empowerment of Shanghai's information and xm-forex.communications industry and artificial intelligence (AI) with the high-quality development of xm-forex.computing power infrastructure, and help build a world-class artificial intelligence industry cluster. The notice stated that Shanghai will accelerate the construction of xm-forex.computing power centers under construction. By the end of 2025, there will be no less than 5 new large-scale xm-forex.computing power centers built this year, and the smart xm-forex.computing scale of xm-forex.computing power centers in the city will strive to reach more than 100 EFLOPS (FP16). At the same time, Shanghai will accelerate the interconnection of xm-forex.computing power.

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