Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Forex】--USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Lira Weakens Further
- 【XM Group】--Silver Forecast: Surges Higher
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/MXN Monthly Forecast: January 2025
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--NASDAQ 100 Forecast Launches After CPI Misses
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--Nasdaq Forecast: Recovers as We Look to Test Resistance
market news
The global market is waiting for the non-agricultural storm. What is Trump's intention to do?
Wonderful Introduction:
A quiet path will always arouse a relaxed yearning in twists and turns; a huge wave, the thrilling sound can be even more stacked when the tide rises and falls; a story, only with regrets and sorrows can bring about a heart-wrenching desolation; a life, where the ups and downs show the stunning heroism.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The global market is waiting for the non-agricultural storm, what is Trump's intention to do with tariffs?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Trump has once again triggered a tariff storm, and Switzerland and Canada are the first to be hit. The Swiss pharmaceutical industry is facing a tax rate pressure of up to 39%, causing turmoil in the money market and the Swiss franc's safe-haven attributes are invalid. Global trade tensions have heated up market risk aversion, but the US dollar and the Japanese yen dominate the flow of funds. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, and internal policy differences have arisen, and the market closely monitors the non-farm data and subsequent tax increases list. Analysts pointed out that the world has entered a "risk repricing" cycle, and macroeconomic policies and economic data will continue to dominate market volatility.
Non-agricultural data has become the short-term focus, and the Fed's attitude has affected global policy expectations.
The upcoming U.S. non-agricultural employment data for July has become the most concerned variable in the market in the short term. The median market expectation is 104,000 new jobs, far lower than the 147,000 in the previous month. The forecast range is wide, indicating that the data is extremely uncertain. If the actual results are significantly lower than expected, it may lower the US Treasury yield, further promote the US dollar correction, and change the short-term exchange rate trend structure.
At the same time, traders are also closely tracking the Fed's future policy trends. During this week's meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate range from 4.25% to 4.50%, but internal differences have emerged, and two FOMC officials support the rate cut within the year. Although Chairman Powell reiterated that he would adhere to data-oriented and remain vigilant against inflation risks, market expectations for the Fed's flexible adjustment attitude have gradually heated up, especially in the context of the continued amplification of global trade uncertainty.
Global risk sentiment suddenly heats up, Trump's tariffs trigger a new round of market fluctuations
U.S. President Trump launched a new round of tariff plans this week, andThis has become the core driving force for global market volatility. This policy will include Canada and Switzerland on the first batch of high tariff lists, attracting widespread attention. Swiss pharmaceutical industry was the first to be hit. Faced with a tax pressure of up to 39%, the stock prices of pharmaceutical giants such as Novartis and Roche fell, falling by more than 2% and 3% respectively. As nearly 50% of the country's pharmaceutical exports are headed to the United States, market concerns about structural risks in the Swiss economy have rapidly heated up.
Although the Swiss government expressed its willingness to xm-forex.compromise on fruits, nuts, and some medical equipment in exchange for ease of pressure, it remained tough on the agricultural protection stance and failed to meet the requirements of the United States' xm-forex.comprehensive opening. The negotiation window was less than a week left, and the negotiation results were full of uncertainty. Trump also pushed pharmaceutical xm-forex.companies to unify pricing globally and lower domestic sales prices in the United States, further squeezing the profit margins of multinational pharmaceutical xm-forex.companies. This move will undoubtedly impact the global medical industry chain and also create negative feedback on high-end manufacturing exports in Europe and the United States.
The Swiss franc's safe-haven attributes have failed, and the precursors of the currency market fluctuations have begun to appear
As a traditional global safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc has performed unusually sluggish against the current rising geographic and trade risks, becoming one of the weakest varieties in the G10 currency. Analysts believe that this trend is mainly due to the market's reaction to Swiss high tariff expectations and its high reliance on U.S. trade. Usually when risk aversion is heating up, the Swiss franc should show a strong trend, but now it is weak, showing that the uncertainty of trade policy is rewriting the traditional logic of the money market.
In contrast, the US dollar and the Japanese yen re-establish a strong position in this round of risk repricing. The U.S. dollar index has crossed the 100 mark, hitting a new high since May, reflecting that traders are turning their funds to the most liquid safe-haven assets. This wave of capital allocation trend may put greater pressure on currencies in some small economies, especially export-oriented countries facing heavy pressure from US tariffs.
The risks of xm-forex.comprehensive escalation of trade frictions still exist, and the policy prospects are xm-forex.complex and difficult to understand.
The targeting of this round of tariff plans is wide and strong, and is generally regarded by foreign exchange analysts as an "asymmetric impact." xm-forex.commerzbank pointed out that the goods not included in the USMCA coverage in Canada face a tax rate of 35%, Switzerland is as high as 39%, South Africa is 30%, while most Asian countries are around 15%, forming a significant gap. Analysts believe that tariff measures will substantially depreciate the currencies of relevant countries and may be transmitted to consumer prices, and global inflation expectations have been ignited again.
This xm-forex.complex policy environment will pose a dual challenge to the Fed: on the one hand, it needs to continue to deal with inflation risks, and on the other hand, it faces the real dilemma of weakening growth momentum. If the Fed sways between controlling inflation and maintaining the economy, it may further aggravate market direction uncertainty and prompt trading strategies to shift to a more conservative model.
The risk repricing cycle is xm-forex.coming, and trading strategies may need to be flexibly responded
With the current multiple uncertainties intertwined, the global market is entering a "risk repricing""Stage. The Trump administration's high-frequency policy changes and the response measures of global central banks to differentiate the market have caused the market pricing logic to change, and traditional financial havens may also fail. Especially in the context of the gradual cooling of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and inflation has not stabilized, every economic data and every policy statement may trigger violent fluctuations in the exchange rate and interest rate market.
Analysis points out that the current core logic is not the change of a single economic variable, but the highly sensitive nature of the chain of "policy signals-market interpretation-price response". Traders pay more attention to the ability to predict changes in the macro environment at the operational level, pay close attention to the non-agricultural data, the remarks of Fed officials, and the possibility of a new round of tariff lists to deal with potential emergencies.
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The global market is waiting for the non-agricultural storm. What is Trump's tariff intention? "The entire content of " was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thank you for your support!
Every successful person has a start. Only by being brave enough to find the way to success. Read the next article quickly!
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here