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The non-agricultural outburst triggered an epic charge of gold, and the dollar bulls were siege and plunged by more than 100 points!

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The non-agricultural upset triggered an epic charge of gold, and the US dollar bulls were siege and suppressed, plummeting by more than 100 points!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Friday (August 1), at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the highly anticipated July non-agricultural employment report. The data was unexpectedly upset, causing violent fluctuations in the financial market. The report shows that only 73,000 new non-agricultural jobs were added in July, far lower than the market expectations of 110,000, the smallest increase since October last year. The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, in line with expectations, but wage growth slightly exceeded expectations, with an average hourly annual rate of wages recording 3.9%, higher than expected 3.8%. In addition, the non-farm data for May and June were revised down by 125,000 and 133,000, respectively, and a total of 258,000, further aggravated the market's concerns about the slowdown in the US economy.

After the data was released, the US dollar index plunged 105 points in the short term, hitting a low of 99.1899, spot gold soared about US$34, reaching a high of US$3335.17 per ounce, and major currency pairs such as the euro and the US dollar also fluctuated significantly. The following analysis is carried out from three aspects: real-time market response, change in interest rate cut expectations and future trend outlook.

Instant market reaction: the US dollar plunged, gold soared, and the bond market tended to be loose

After the non-agricultural data was released, the financial market responded quickly, showing a typical market dominated by "help aversion" and "loose expectations". The US dollar index fell rapidly after the data was released, with a drop of 0.42% at one point, reaching a low of 99.1899, setting a new intraday low. In contrast, the euro rose rapidly against the US dollar, with the intraday gains expanding to 1.01% at 1.1527, breaking through the key 1.1500 mark, setting a new high in two trading days. The dollar is also under pressure against the yen, with an intraday decline of 1.00%, at 149.22, indicating that the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar has rapidly heated up. Retail traders generally believe that the US dollar may further test the support level of 99.25 in the short term, and if it falls below, it may further fall into the 98.50 area.

At the same time, the precious metals market has become the biggest winner after the data is released. Spot gold soared from $3301/ounce to $3330/ounce in five minutes, hitting a high of $3335.17/ounce, with an intraday increase of 1.24%, breaking through the key 3330 resistance level. The main contract of xm-forex.comEX gold futures also rose 1.02% to $3382.70 per ounce. The institution pointed out that the gold bull target is rapidly pointing to the 3340-3345 area. The hourly chart shows that the previous high resistance of 3333.91 has been broken, and the short-term momentum is relatively high. Retail traders generally believe that the rise in gold is not only driven by weak non-farm data, but is also closely related to the market's repricing of the Fed's easing policy. Spot silver also performed strongly, with an intraday increase of 0.41% to $36.833 per ounce, setting a new intraday high. However, the platinum market performance was differentiated, with spot platinum falling 1.19% to $1,290.30/ounce, while the main Nymex platinum futures rose slightly by 0.18% to $1,301.4/ounce.

In the U.S. bond market, the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell 1.14% during the day to 4.327%, the 2-year U.S. bond yield fell 8 basis points to 3.871%, and the 2/10-year yield curve tended to steeply, reaching 48.8 basis points. The decline in bond yields reflects the increased market expectations for a slowdown and Fed's easing policy. The S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% after the data was released, indicating that the stock market was suppressed by weak employment data and Trump's tariff rhetoric, and the market's risk aversion sentiment further heated up.

Expectations of interest rate cuts have rekindled: Market sentiment has shifted from hawks to doves

Before the release of non-farm data in July, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have been significantly biased towards hawks. Previously, the hawkish statements of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the overexpected performance of June inflation data reduced the market's probability of a 25 basis point cut in September from 64.5% a week ago to 43%. However, the increase in non-farm employment of 73,000 is much lower than expected, and xm-forex.combined with the sharp downward revisions in May and June, the market's bet on the Fed's easing policy has rapidly heated up. Futures market data show that the probability of traders cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has soared from 45% before the data to 75%, and even xm-forex.completely digested the possibility of a rate cut in October. In contrast, the probability of the ECB cutting interest rates in March 2026 also rose from 65% to 80%, indicating that global monetary policy expectations are turning to easing simultaneously.

Institutional and retail investors' interpretations further confirm this change. The agency said after the data was released that the non-farm data was "shocking", providing a strong reason for the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and expected the U.S. dollar index to continue under pressure in the short term. Retail traders pointed out thatThe best market script is that the unemployment rate is slightly higher and new jobs are slightly higher than expected, while the current data is well below expectations, indicating that the labor market is weakening but has not yet triggered recession concerns. This "soft landing" expectation has driven up gold and non-dollar currencies while also lowering U.S. Treasury yields.

However, the market is not one-sidedly bearish on the US economy. Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, said that although the 73,000 job growth rate was lower than expected, the number of new monthly jobs needed to maintain stability in the U.S. labor market has dropped to about 86,000 due to factors such as reduced immigration, so the data is not xm-forex.completely weak. Guy Berger, a senior researcher at the labor market think tank Burning Glass Institute, further pointed out that most major indicators have remained stable since last fall and economic resilience remains. This divergence is also reflected. Some retail investors believe that the market's response to the data may be too pessimistic, and the US dollar index at the support level of 99.25 may trigger a technical rebound.

Future trend outlook: Short-term volatility intensifies, long-term focus on inflation and policy game

Looking forward, the weakness of non-agricultural data in July has injected new uncertainty into the market, and the fluctuations in the price of financial assets may further intensify in the short term. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset will continue to increase, especially after the 3333.91 resistance breaks through, the bullish target may point to the 3340-3345 area, or even higher. But we need to be wary of the rapid switching of market sentiment. If subsequent economic data (such as inflation or consumer confidence) show resilience, gold may face pressure to pull back. The US dollar index may continue to test the 99.25 support level. If it is lost, the downside may open to the 98.50 area, but if the selling sentiment caused by employment data is digested, the US dollar may stabilize under the support of technical buying.

The short-term decline in U.S. Treasury yields may continue, especially the 10-year yield shows fatigue around 4.327%. But in the long run, if inflationary pressures are intensified by tariff rhetoric or OPEC+ production increase plans, yields may regain their upward trend. In terms of the stock market, the decline in S&P 500 futures reflects market concerns about the economic slowdown, but the risk of pullbacks in high-valuation sectors such as technology stocks is particularly worthy of attention. MarketWatch mentioned that the Dow may face a 400-point decline, highlighting the market's high sensitivity to employment data and external uncertainty.

From a longer perspective, the Fed's policy path will be the core driving force for market trends. The current market expectations for interest rate cuts in September and October have heated up significantly, but if subsequent inflation data or employment indicators show economic resilience, the pace of interest rate cuts may slow down. Investors need to pay close attention to upcoming inflation data (such as CPI and PCE) and guidance from the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting to judge the pace and intensity of easing policies. In addition, OPEC+ production increase plan may impose a certain suppression on xm-forex.commodity prices, which will in turn affect inflation expectations and the Fed's policy space.

The unexpected weakness in the non-farm employment report in July broke market expectations for the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy. The US dollar index plunged, gold soared, and US Treasury yields fell, indicating that market sentiment quickly turned to dovish. Institutional and retail investors interpreted the same as the data provided strong support for the rate cut in September, but the view that economic resilience and cracks coexisted also triggered differences. In the short term, gold and non-dollar currencies may continue to benefit from loose expectations, while the US dollar and U.S. stocks are facing downward pressure. In the long run, inflation data and the Fed's policy game will become the key to market trends. Investors need to be cautious in an environment of increasing volatility and focus on risk management to deal with the challenges brought by multiple uncertainties.

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The non-agricultural outburst triggered an epic charge of gold, and the dollar bulls were siege and plunged by more than 100 points!

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The non-agricultural outburst triggered an epic charge of gold, and the dollar bulls were siege and plunged by more than 100 points!

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