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8.4 Analysis of the rise and fall trend of gold and crude oil today and the latest long and short operation suggestions on Monday
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM official website】: Analysis of the up and down trend of 8.4 Gold and crude oil today and the latest long and short operation suggestions on Monday". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
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Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
Analysis of gold news: Last Friday (August 1), the spot gold price soared by 2.23%, hitting a weekly high of 3363.37 USD/oz during the session, and closing at 3363.16 USD/oz. This wave of gains was not only driven by unexpected weakness in U.S. non-farm employment data, but also stimulated by the risk aversion demand triggered by the Trump administration’s latest tariff policies. The uncertainty in the global economy, the weakness of the dollar and the rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have jointly provided strong momentum for gold's rise. In the early trading of the Asian market on Monday (August 4), spot gold fluctuated at a high level, and it is currently trading around $3,356.66 per ounce. This trading day requires attention to the monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in June and continue to pay attention to news related to the international trade situation and geopolitical situation.
Gold technical analysis: At the large level, the monthly line level has four consecutive upper shadow lines and three cross stars are arranged horizontally. This high-level cross-row pattern in the upward trend has the momentum of Mount Tai to press the top, and the bulls are beginning to become cautious, and the future market will beTo prevent large bears from counterattacks at any time, we have repeatedly emphasized the golden monthly line in recent months. At present, the bears have obvious advantages. No matter how the bulls pull the market, it is difficult to change the mid-line bears! Last Friday, gold was boosted by risk aversion and rose to the highest level to 3363, just reaching the gold segment 0.5-0.618 area. So on Monday, we have reason to lay out a short wave in the region, and see that gold will continue to fall in the future to test 3245; then the mid-term support for the lower 3150~3120 before the test.
The weekly level gold bottomed out and rebounded last week, and the price hit the support of the middle track rebounded and pulled up. The price is still in the range. The current range narrows to 3268-3438. The Bollinger Band continues to close, and ma5 and ma10 still maintain a volatile pattern. The unilateral trend still needs a certain amount of time to brew. The daily level experienced an extreme rise last Friday night. The daily line closed a large positive line. The price directly broke above the short-term moving average and the middle track. A stronger positive-packing-yin pattern appeared in the pattern, which is a positive The bullish signal, so can I chase long on Monday? He Bosheng personally does not recommend chasing long directly at high levels. This time, gold stopped falling and rebounded from 3268. After two trading days, it rose nearly $100. It basically has not been fully retraceed. Even if there is a retracement on Thursday, it is a single structure. This cannot provide stable support for the bulls to rise. Therefore, it is not recommended to chase longs. Instead, pay attention to the longs profit selling at any time after pulling up. Pay attention to the resistance of 618 and the resistance around the top and bottom conversion of 3376 in the previous period.
From the 4-hour level and hourly level of gold, after the big rise last Friday, the Bollinger bands are all signs of opening, but it should be noted that the general continuity of this surge in opening is insufficient. After returning to the technical side, the Bollinger band will close again. The 4-hour K-line is currently running above the upper track, which is no longer conducive to the direct rise of the bulls. The 1-hour moving average is passivated, and the Bollinger band is about to close. Overall, although gold is in a strong position, it is bullish and does not chase the rise. Gold operates today first to pay attention to the opportunity to rise for the high and short selling, and then look bullish after the correction. Pay attention to the resistance near 3372-3385 in the short term, and pay attention to the first line support of 3345-3338 and the 3315-18 regional support.
The latest market trend analysis of crude oil:
Crude oil news analysis: Sunday (August 3) the global energy market ushered in another major news! The OPEC+ alliance formed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies reached an agreement on Sunday to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day from September. This decision is not only the latest move by OPEC+ to regain market share, but also marks a milestone for the organization to fully lift its largest production cut agreement ahead of schedule. At the same time, market concerns about the disruption of related supply in Russia are increasing, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and geopolitical and economic games are intertwined, adding more uncertainty to the global energy landscape.
Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend fluctuates upward test around 78, the K-line closes to a large physical negative line, and the oil price goes upThe moving average system has not yet formed a bull arrangement, and the medium-term objective trend direction has entered a conversion period. The subjective direction forms an upward trend. From the perspective of momentum energy, the MACD indicator crosses the zero axis, and the bulls' momentum becomes stronger. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will fall into a new oscillation range. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil fell at a high level, oil prices repeatedly crossed the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction entered a volatile rhythm. Oil prices have not yet fallen below 66.50 to support Dow's low, and the original upward trend has not yet ended. Oil prices fluctuated narrowly in the early trading, with the strength of long and short. Under the current multiple signals, it is expected that the intraday crude oil trend will be mainly consolidation at a high level. Overall, in terms of today's operational ideas of crude oil, He Bosheng recommends that rebound high altitudes should be the main focus, and the retracement should be the low long as the auxiliary. The short-term focus should be on the 68.5-69.5 line resistance at the top, and the short-term focus should be on the 65.0-64.0 line support at the bottom.
This article is exclusively planned by Gold Crude Oil analyst He Bosheng. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is personal advice. Because the online publication is timely and the suggestions in the article are for learning reference only, and the risks of operating based on this are at your own risk. No matter whether the views and strategies of the article are consistent with everyone's opinions, you can xm-forex.come to me to discuss and learn together! There is nothing difficult in the world, I am afraid of those who are interested. Investment itself carries risks, reminding everyone to identify the authoritative platform and the strong teacher. Fund safety is the first priority, secondly, consider operational risks, and finally how to make a profit.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: Analysis of today's market trends of gold and crude oil and the latest long and short operation suggestions on Monday". It was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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