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USD/JPY hover above the 148 mark, the market is waiting for the Fed and Japanese bank policy signals

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar/Japanese yen hoveres above the 148 mark, and the market is waiting for the Federal Reserve and the Japanese Bank's policy signals." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

During the Asian trading session on Monday, the US dollar/JPY exchange rate once hit around 148.10, setting a new weekly high. Although the US dollar performed relatively moderately, its gains in the previous two days still supported the exchange rate to continue to strengthen. At the same time, fundamental factors in Japan have failed to provide sustained support for the yen.

The United States reached a trade agreement with Asian countries, the United States and the European Union signed a 15% tariff framework agreement, and the continued advancement of U.S.-China negotiations have led to an increase in market risk appetite, thus weakening the attractiveness of the Japanese yen, a safe-haven currency.

Japan's slowdown in inflation and unstable political situation weakened expectations of interest rate hikes

Data shows that the year-on-year growth rate of Tokyo's CPI in July was lower than market expectations, indicating that Japan's inflation decline trend was clear. At the same time, the defeat of the ruling coalition in the House of Lords election has exacerbated political uncertainty, and market expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes this year have begun to cool down. These factors together restrict the rebound space of the yen.

According to market research, "Although Japan's trade agreement with the United States has reduced economic uncertainty in the short term, the turbulent domestic political situation may make the Bank of Japan cautious about hikes."

Focus on central bank resolutions and key data, and wait-and-see sentiment in the short term

The two major central banks will announce interest rate resolutions this week. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but the focus is on Chairman Powell's policy outlook statement. Similarly, the Bank of Japan will update its monetary policy on Thursday, and although the market expects it to remain unchanged, any wording of "policy normalization" could trigger market volatility.

In addition, the United States will release its second-quarter GDP estimate, PCE price index and non-farm employment report this week, which may determineThe medium-term trend of the US dollar.

From a technical perspective, the US dollar/JPY rebounded after retracing the 50% retracement level of July's gains last week and broke through the 200-hour moving average, and the technical pattern turned positive. The current price remains above 148.00, and the kinetic energy indicators of the daily and hourly charts are relatively large, indicating that there is still room for further upward in the short term.

If the exchange rate stabilizes above 148.00, the next target may be last week's high of 148.65, and further resistance level looks to the psychological threshold of 149.00. On the contrary, if the price falls back below 148.00, the 147.70-147.65 area will become the key support area, which is also the overlapping position of the 100-hour moving average and the 23.6% Fibon retracement.

If it falls below this point, you need to be wary of risks around 146.70 (38.2% retracement level) or even below 146.00. At that time, the 145.75 and 145.20 areas will constitute important downward targets.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar/Japanese yen hoveres above the 148 mark, and the market is waiting for the Federal Reserve and Japanese Bank policy signals". It is carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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USD/JPY hover above the 148 mark, the market is waiting for the Fed and Japanese bank policy signals

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USD/JPY hover above the 148 mark, the market is waiting for the Fed and Japanese bank policy signals

Related News

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