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GBP/USD rises to 1.36, weak U.S. producer price index and unemployment claims push for rate cut bets

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: GBP/USD rises to 1.36, weak US producer price index and unemployment benefits applications drive interest rate cut bets." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The pound/dollar continued its uptrend on Thursday, after another inflation report released by the United States increased the probability that the Fed may resume a loose cycle earlier than expected. Coupled with the rise in the number of unemployment claims, it became a good wind for the pound, which traded against the US dollar at 1.3600, an increase of more than 0.47%.

Despite the decline in UK GDP, the pound rose more than 0.45% on Thursday, with U.S. data boosting Fed rate cut expectations

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the producer price index (PPI) rose 2.6% year-on-year in May, double-digit higher than the April reading. At the same time, the core PPI, which excludes volatility projects such as food and energy, has dropped from 3.1% to 3%.

Today's data, coupled with mild consumer inflation data, prompted investors to fully expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 52 basis points at the end of the year. So far, the impact of the controversial tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on inflation data has not been reflected.

Other data show that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has increased. The number of initial unemployment claims rose by 248K as of June 7, remaining unchanged but above the expected 240K.

In the UK, GDP data for April showed that the economic contraction was the largest in 18 months, with GDP reaching -0.3% month-on-month. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Bank of England (BoE) that could continue to cut interest rates in 2025, and are now expected to cut interest rates twice.

Although this figure has caused a general weakness in the U.S. dollar, as shown by the GBP/USD, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure due to policies implemented in Washington.

Looking forward, the UK's economic schedule will be absent. In the United States, traders will focus on the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

GBP/USD maintains an upward bias, but despite hitting the year-on-year high of 1.3623, buyers failed to maintain the price above 1.36. Momentum remains bullish, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), ready to enter the overbought zone.

That is, the first resistance level for GBP/USD will be the year-on-year high of 1.3626, followed by 1.37 and 1.3750. Conversely, if the pair remains below 1.36, the path challenging the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) 1.3521 will be cleared, followed by 1.35 and 50-day SMA1.3319.

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GBP/USD rises to 1.36, weak U.S. producer price index and unemployment claims push for rate cut bets

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GBP/USD rises to 1.36, weak U.S. producer price index and unemployment claims push for rate cut bets

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