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U.S. employment and inflation both cool down, G7 countries plan to bypass Trump's cuts in Russian oil prices
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: U.S. employment and inflation have cooled down, and many G7 countries plan to bypass Trump to lower the price limit on Russian oil." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On June 13, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.05. On Thursday, data showed that both U.S. jobs and inflation cooled, supporting the Fed's interest rate cuts twice this year. The US dollar index fell for the second consecutive day, finally closing down 0.78% to 97.864, hitting a new low in more than three years. The yield on the US Treasury continued to decline, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.368%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closing at 3.918%. Benefiting from the tightening of the Middle East situation and the recovery of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bet, spot gold continued to rise, once approaching the $3,400 mark during the session, and finally closed up 0.94%, closing at $3,386.83/ounce; spot silver took out a V-shaped reversal and finally closed up 0.3%, at $36.36/ounce. As traders took profits after oil prices soared on the previous trading day, international crude oil opened higher and then fell, but the US rebounded before the session and recovered all intraday declines. WTI crude oil fell by more than 2% at one point and finally closed up 0.6% at $67.58 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.32% at $69.68 per barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.05. Risk aversion and hopes for the Fed's interest rate cut are punishing the dollar. The market is increasingly skeptical of Trump's ability to reach a major trade deal. Recent Fed disagreements with the ECB have put additional pressure on the dollar. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below the support level of 98.00–98.20. If this attempt is successful, it will go to the next support level in the 96.70–96.90 range.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Friday, gold trading around 3405.71. Sentiment remains optimistic after a series of positive inflation reports in the United States that forced the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as the economy has not yet shown the full impact of tariffs on prices. The labor market continues to show some weakness as the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States exceeded 240,000 for the second consecutive week.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On Friday, crude oil trading was around 70.73. Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran. According to a reporter from the Israel Times, Israeli Defense Minister Katz declared a state of emergency across the country. Affected by the sharp rise in geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the United States and the Brazilian oil industry rose rapidly, and the increase rapidly expanded to 4%.
Forex market trading reminder on June 13, 2025
①14:00UK's three-month GDP monthly rate in April
②14:00UK's April manufacturing output monthly rate
③14:00UK's April seasonally adjusted xm-forex.commodity trade account
④14:00UK's April industrial output monthly rate
⑤20:30UK's initial unemployment benefits in the week from the United States to June 7
⑥20:30UK's May PP I annual rate
⑦20:30 US May PPI monthly rate
⑧22:30 US to June 6 EIA natural gas inventory
⑨The next day, the Federal Reserve released its quarterly financial account report
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