Tariff uncertainty intensifies, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 12

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.62%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.47%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.46%. The German DAX index fell 1.29%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.05%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.74%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.97%.

2. Market news interpretation

Tariff uncertainty has intensified, and the US dollar faces the risk of further decline

⑴KyleChapman of BallingerGroup pointed out that tariff uncertainty may lead to further decline in the US dollar. ⑵ The dollar fell to a three-year low against a basket of currencies, and the euro fell to a three-and-a-half low against the euro. ⑶Trump said on Wednesday night that the United States will send letters to countries within two weeks explaining the specific level of tariff rates. This remark has exacerbated market uncertainty. ⑷Chapman believes that if the US economy is truly damaged due to tariff issues, the US dollar still has a lot of room for downward trend at the current level. ⑸ He also said that the prospect of the Federal Reserve's potential increase in interest rate cuts may push the euro to $1.20. ⑹DXY dollar index fell 0.8% to 97.789, while data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed that the euro rose 1% to $1.1610.

The German Ifo Research Institute raises economic expectations, and government spending helps growth

⑴ The German economic research institution Ifo Research Institute raises the increase due to the government expenditure plan.Economic growth forecasts in 2025 have been raised to 0.3% from the previously expected 0.2%. ⑵The institute also significantly raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 from 0.8% to 1.5%. ⑶Ifo economist Timo Wollmershaeuser said the German economic crisis reached a low in the winter and has improved since then. ⑷ The institute expects that government spending plans will have an impact on GDP of 10 billion euros in 2025 and 57 billion euros in 2026, which has driven an increase in previous economic forecasts. ⑸ However, Ifo forecasters point out that trade issues remain one of the main risks facing the German economy.

The International Atomic Energy Agency passed resolutions involving Iran, Iran responded to the Iranian resolutions.

On the 12th local time, Kamal Wandi, spokesman of the Iranian Organization, said in response to the resolutions involving Iran adopted by the Council of the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran will launch a third uranium enrichment facility and upgrade the first generation of uranium enrichment machines to the sixth generation. Uranium enrichment activity will increase significantly. Kamal Wandi said, "We have warned before that we will adjust our actions."

The crash in India has killed many people on the ground

According to the Indian TV station in New Delhi, India, the crashed Air India passenger plane crashed this afternoon in the undergraduate dormitory of a medical school near the airport shortly after taking off, killing five medical school students and injuring several others.

The wildfire is fierce. Residents near Vancouver, Canada are preparing to evacuate at any time.

As the wildfires continue to spread, residents near Vancouver, British Columbia, western Canada are ready to evacuate at any time on the 11th. Local officials warn that weather conditions this summer could lead to an increased risk of wildfires. Squamish town, just 64 kilometers from Vancouver, declared a state of emergency. The local emergency management department issued an early warning on the evening of the 10th, requiring residents to be prepared and evacuate as soon as possible after receiving the evacuation order. According to AFP, wildfires threatening Squamish town occurred near the coast. xm-forex.compared with inland wildfires, this type of wildfire has a lower severity, but it has frequently appeared recently and is worth paying attention to.

Germany Treasury yields fell to its lowest since May, with safe-haven demand driving bonds up

⑴Germany 10-year Treasury yields fell to nearly six-week lows on Thursday, mainly benefiting from the inflow of safe-haven funds triggered by market concerns over trade tensions and tensions in the Middle East. ⑵The yield fell nearly 7 basis points to 2.473%, the lowest level since early May, after the day before, the U.S. inflation data was lower than expected, driving a general decline in global Treasury yields. ⑶ US President Trump said he would send trade agreement terms to many countries within one to two weeks, and the market risk appetite decreased, driving bonds to rise. At the same time, safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc strengthened and the stock market fell. ⑷ Market focus turns to U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data released late Thursday, which ING analysts believe may show a rebound after the decline in May, but U.S. bonds are expected to continue to rise unless the data is "overly expressed.Strong. ⑸ In Europe, investors are paying attention to the speeches of ECB officials to determine whether last week's rate cut is the last in the current cycle. ECB Executive xm-forex.committee member Isabel Schnabel said interest rates are at "appropriate levels", but Lithuanian policymaker Gediminas Simkus believes further rate cuts may be needed this year. ⑹ The market is currently expecting another rate cut this year. Other euro zone bond yields have also generally declined, with Italy's 10-year countries The bond yield fell by 5 basis points to 3.42%, and the German 2-year Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 1.81%.

ING Analysis "The dollar market is insufficient confidence

⑴ The dollar has performed weakly recently. The market discussion on the US dollar and US bond correlation broke down in the past 10 weeks, but the weak CPI data on Wednesday pushed US bonds up, and the US dollar returned to the traditional correlation. The US dollar index (DXY) fell 0.5% on the same day as the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates. ⑵ ING foreign exchange analyst Chris Turner pointed out that the weak CPI data has increased the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in 2025 by 9 to 10 basis points. ⑶ The US dollar index is close to the April low of 97.90 to 98.00, and has failed to rebound due to the progress of trade negotiations, which may be due to the blurred details of the agreement. At the same time, Trump said he would send a "accept or abandon" trade agreement letter to more than 20 countries, which makes the risk of a significant increase in tariffs on July 9 still exist, and is regarded by the market as a negative factor for the US dollar. ⑷The two major factors supporting the US dollar are: First, the difference between the US dollar and interest rate has been extremely diverged. If there is no short-term US bond interest rate further decline, it will be difficult for the US dollar to continue to fall. It is uncertain whether the US PPI or initial unemployment claim data on that day can drive interest rates to decline; Second, geopolitical tensions, the situation in the Middle East has escalated due to Israel's possible actions on Iran's nuclear facilities, oil prices have risen this week, and the US energy independence advantage has benefited the US dollar. If the situation develops further, the US dollar may be favored due to liquidity advantages, and the Japanese yen and Swiss francs will also be sought after. ⑸ The US dollar index is close to the April low, ING believes that this may be the bottom of the trading range, but the US dollar's recent poor performance may be the impact of the lagging effect of global portfolio reconfiguration, such as direct sales of US assets or increasing the hedging ratio, and the short-term decline in US Treasury bond interest rates also makes decisions to hedge against US assets easier.

HSBC predicts that the Bank of Japan will maintain its bond purchase plan

Economists at HSBC Global Research Department expect that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged next week and continue to promote plans to reduce the scale of Japan's government bonds until the first quarter of 2026. At the current rate of about 400 billion yen per quarter, by March 2025, the Bank of Japan's monthly purchase scale will drop from 5.7 trillion yen in July 2024 to 3 trillion yen. By fiscal 2026, quarterly purchases are expected to slow to about 200 billion yen, and by March 2027, monthly purchases will drop to around 2 trillion yen. HSBC believes 2 trillion yen is a "natural" level because this is the Bank of Japan 201The number of Japanese government bonds purchased monthly before the ultra-loose monetary policy was introduced in April 3.

Italian lending costs hit a three-year low

Italian three-year lending costs fell to the lowest level since July 2022 in the auction on June 12, indicating that the market expects global central banks to further relax monetary policy. This time, the Italian Ministry of Finance successfully sold three BTP bonds of 6.5 billion euros. Among them, the yield of three-year BTP bonds of 2.5 billion euros was 2.24%, down from 2.4% in mid-May, hitting a new low since July 2022; the yield of seven-year bonds of 3 billion euros was 3.02%, the lowest in six months, down from 3.28% in mid-May; the yield of 1.25 billion euros in 2054 maturing bonds was 4.26%, down from 4.70% in March, hitting a new low since December last year.

The Bank of Japan may maintain interest rates and Treasury bond cut plans

⑴ HSBC Global Research Economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged next week and continue its Japan Treasury bond (JGB) cut plans until the first quarter of 2026. ⑵At the current pace of a quarterly reduction of about 400 billion yen, the Bank of Japan's monthly Treasury bond purchases will drop from 5.7 trillion yen in July 2024 to 3 trillion yen in March 2025. ⑶ HSBC expects that the Bank of Japan’s Treasury bond purchases will drop to about 200 billion yen per quarter in fiscal 2026, and monthly purchases will drop to about 2 trillion yen by March 2027. ⑷ HSBC believes that 2 trillion yen is a "natural" level, because this is the monthly purchase volume before the Bank of Japan implemented its ultra-loose monetary policy in April 2013.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1603, an increase of 1.00%. Before New York, the price of (Euro-USD) expanded its gains at the recent intraday level, breaking through our morning target at the 1.1550 resistance level, strengthening the intensity of the short-term bullish trend, supported by the pair's movement along the bullish bias line and its stability above the EMA50.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3587, an increase of 0.32%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price settled above the last intraday trading, after exceeding the negative pressure of the EMA50 in previous trading, dominating the main bullish trend on a short-term basis, and trading along a slash, ready to attack the key resistance level of 1.3600, on the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) began to show negative overlap signals after reaching overbought levels, which could slow down the upcoming rise.

Spot Gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold rose to 3381.29, up 0.79%. Before the New York market, the price of (gold) rose on the last trading day after it suddenly fell rapidly in early trading to rely on its EMA50 support, providing a foundation to gain positive momentum to help it rebound on a short-term basis and trade along a slash. On the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) reached overbought levels and began to show negative overlap signals, which could cause some volatility and delay the rise unless such overbought conditions were unloaded.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell and is now at 36.196, a drop of 0.06%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (silver) rose on the last trading day after it relied on EMA50 support and the stability of the key support at $35.90, which received a strong bullish push, providing positive impetus to help it rebound quickly with the emergence of positive signals on (RSI) after reaching oversold levels.

Crude Oil Market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell to 67.060, a drop of 1.60%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (crude oil) fell in recent intraday trading, and after reaching overbought levels, there was a negative signal on (RSI) in an attempt to find a higher low as the basis may help it obtain the desired positive recovery momentum, and dominates the main bullish trend in the short term, along the slash, continue to gain positive support from trading above the EMA50.

4. Institutional View

Capito Macro: India's inflation may have bottomed out

Shiran, chief emerging market economist at Capito Macro? Shah said that India's overall consumer price index may have bottomed out after hitting a 75-month low in May. This will prove that the Bank of India's early cut rate is correct, and the bank also strongly implies that the easing cycle has ended. He added that the core inflation rate may continue to hover around 4% in May. As economic growth continues, potential price pressures in the xm-forex.coming months may increase. But given that household inflation expectations remain sluggish, we do not expect core inflation to rise sharply. Any rebound in inflation may be gradual, which suggests that the Bank of India's repurchase rate can remain at 5.50% for a period of time.

Dutch International: UK is expected to be economicallyEconomic growth is weak

James Smith of Dutch International Group said that the UK's economic growth is on a downward trend. Previous data showed that the UK economy contracted more than expected at the beginning of the second quarter. Smith said in a report that the 0.3% contraction in April indicates that economic growth will be weaker for the rest of the year, especially after the release of weak jobs data this week. He said global uncertainty is exacerbating potential problems in the UK, and risks surrounding the prospects for economic growth are accumulating.

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: Tariff uncertainty is intensifying, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 12". It was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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