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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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market analysis
World Bank cuts global economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The World Bank lowers global economic growth expectations by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%. Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM Macro: The World Bank lowers global economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%
XM Macro: The World Bank released the June Global Economic Outlook, which mentioned that economic turmoil will reduce the expected global GDP growth rate at the beginning of the year by nearly 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%, which is the weakest performance in 17 years (except for the extremes during the pandemic). The report mainly analyzes the radical foreign policy initiated by US President Trump in April, believing that both the US and the global economy will be negatively affected by the policy.
▲XM chart
According to the World Bank's model, the US GS will increase by 10%. If other countries adopt reciprocal policies, global economic growth will decline by 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points. And it will cause a chain effect of general collapse of confidence, rising uncertainty and turbulence in financial markets.
▲XM chart
The global economic growth prospects are sluggish, and hedging varieties such as gold and silver have benefited. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative increase of gold has reached 27.25%, and the cumulative increase of silver has reached 25.76%, both of which have hit new highs in more than a decade. However, the US bonds, which are second only to precious metals, have not been sought after by the market, and prices have plummeted. The reason is that the global economic recession is mainlyThe drag factor xm-forex.comes from the United States.
Not only did the U.S. Treasury prices continue to fall sharply, the U.S. dollar index has also entered a weak cycle. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative decline of the US dollar index has approached 9%. The sharp drop in the US dollar and US bonds mean that a large amount of funds flowing out of the US in the international market. This direction of capital flow breaks the previous logic of "dollar assets are a global safe haven."
Risk assets are under test, and the three major U.S. stock indexes continue to pull back. Taking the Dow Jones Index as an example, from the end of last year to April this year, the market price fell from above 45,000 points to below 37,000 points, with a cumulative decline of more than 15%. Although there was a rebound trend in May, the amplitude was less than 4%, and it was still a long way from its historical high. Although the Dow Jones Index may still hit another record high in the long run, the time point for setting new highs may be significantly delayed due to the downturn in the global economy.
The price fluctuations of xm-forex.commodities best illustrate the development trend of the global economy. When xm-forex.commodity prices are at a relatively low level, it means that global xm-forex.commodity manufacturing and demand are relatively sluggish. When xm-forex.commodity prices are at a relatively high level, it means that both the manufacturing and demand for xm-forex.commodities are very strong. Among xm-forex.commodities, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and soybeans are the most representative. The latest quotation for U.S. crude oil was $65.02, which fell below $60 in April, at a relatively low level in the historical price range. The latest price of iron ore is 707 yuan/ton, which is close to half xm-forex.compared to the highest peak of 1358 yuan in May 2021, and is also at a relatively low level in the historical price range. CBOT's soybean price is $1059.75, with an all-time high price around $1800 and a low price around $800. In xm-forex.comparison, the price of US soybeans is closer to the bottom range. The prices of the three representative xm-forex.commodities are all at relatively low levels, and the global macroeconomic recovery momentum is insufficient.
XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The World Bank lowered global economic growth expectations by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%". It was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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