U.S. oil hits its highest in two months, markets are waiting for trade negotiation results, gold price increase is limited

Basic news

On Tuesday (June 10, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3325.13, gold prices rose on Monday, helped by the weakening of the US dollar, market participants closely monitored the ongoing trade talks; U.S. crude oil rose, trading around 65.34 US dollars per barrel, U.S. oil hit a two-month highest on Monday, boosted by the weakening of the US dollar, investors hope to reach an agreement to boost the global economic outlook and stimulate demand.

Focus on the day

UK unemployment rate, the euro zone June Sentix investor confidence index.

Stock and P.P. 500 closed slightly higher on Monday, boosted by Amazon and Alphabet, while investors are also paying attention to trade talks.

Amazon and Google parent Alphabet both rose by more than 1%, driving the S&P 500 to rise. Amazon said it plans to invest at least $20 billion in Pennsylvania to expand its data center infrastructure after the tech giant has invested billions in expanding artificial intelligence (AI).

Apple fell 1.2% after the xm-forex.company released a small number of development results at its annual software developer conference, without impressing investors.

The S&P 500 rose 0.09% to close at 6005.88 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.31% to 19,591.24 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was basically flat at 42,761.76 points.

Of courses of the S&P 500, six of them fell, leading the declineThe utility sector fell 0.66%, followed by the financial sector, with a decline of 0.55%. The S&P 500 is still about 2% lower than the record high hit in February, and the Nasdaq is about 3% lower than the record high hit in December.

Warner Bros. fell about 3%, after it said it would separate its production and streaming businesses from the troubled cable network business. After the news was announced, its share price rose by 13%. McDonald's fell 0.8%, after Morgan Stanley lowered the fast food restaurant's rating from "increasing holding" to "holding and waiting".

The key data to be released this week include the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the number of initial jobless claims on Thursday. While investors generally expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged next week, investors will focus on signs of a rebound in inflation as Trump’s tariff policy has the potential to increase price pressure.

Gold market

Gold prices rose on Monday, helped by the weakening of the dollar, and market participants were closely watching ongoing trade talks. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $3335.02 per ounce, falling to its lowest level in more than a week at the beginning of the session. US gold futures closed up 0.2%, with a settlement price of $3,354.9. The dollar index fell 0.3%, making gold denominated in USD cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

Bart Melek, head of xm-forex.commodity strategy at TD Securities, said in the short term, if the trade negotiation meeting achieves positive results, it may have a little negative impact on gold, but not too big. The weak economy, possible rate cuts and a downward trend in risk appetite are driving people to turn to gold. Of course, there are also expectations of rising inflation.

Investors are also waiting for Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to assess the health of the U.S. economy and predict the Fed's rate cut trajectory.

Spot platinum rose 3.7%, hitting its highest since May 2021 at $1,212.82. Spot silver rose 2.1% to $36.71 per ounce; palladium rose nearly 3% to $1,077.64. Oil market

Oil prices hit a two-month highest on Monday, boosted by a weaker dollar, while investors awaited news of trade talks in London, hoping that a deal could boost global economic outlook and stimulate demand.

Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.9%, with a settlement price of $67.04 a barrel, reaching its highest since April 28, earlier in the session. U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.1% to $65.29, hitting its highest since April 4, of $65.38 per barrel during the session.

The weakening of the US dollar has brought some support to oil prices. The dollar index fell 0.3%, making oil cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

Analysts at the energy consulting firm Ritterbuschand AssociatesThe rise appears to be largely driven by technology, and the rise will easily fade without new bullish news, and people will pay close attention to ongoing trade talks. "

Reuters survey found that OPEC oil production increased less than planned in May as Iraq cuts further to make up for earlier overproduction, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE also increased by less than quotas. OPEC's oil production in May was 26.75 million barrels per day, an increase of 150,000 barrels per day from April, with Saudi Arabia's largest increase.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar weakened against most major currencies on Monday, fluctuating in a narrow range as market participants consolidated the rise after the announcement of last Friday's better-than-expected U.S. employment report and turned the focus to crucial economic and trade negotiations in London.

End of New York, the dollar fell about 0.2% against the yen to 144.55 yen after two consecutive weeks of gains. Two sources directly familiar with the plan said on Monday that the Japanese government was considering Repurchase some ultra-long-term bonds that were issued at low interest rates in the past. The move highlights the government's emphasis on curbing any sudden rise in bond yields. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, Toronto, said the dollar is falling and momentum is weakening to put downward pressure on trading ranges and implicit volatility indicators. Investors believe that the positive news from trade negotiations has been largely digested by major currency pairs, and inflation data on Wednesday is expected to be weak, and even the 30-year Treasury bid on Thursday will be strongly sought after by investors. "

Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.3% against the dollar to $1.1427 as the market continues to digest the ECB's monetary policy outlook released last week, which shows that the ECB may be close to ending its easing cycle. The pound also rose against the dollar, up 0.3% to $1.362.

Juan Perez, head of trading at MonexUSA in Washington, said the situation looks more like (in the second half of the year, the Fed will need to be dovish and help the financial environment, and at the end of the day, if the U.S. is going to be in trouble, there is no clear reason to have long-term confidence in the dollar. The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.2% to 98.942.

The New York dollar rose 0.6% to $0.6054; the Australian dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6522, with a light transaction. There is another report on trade that Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Regeneration Zawara is planning to hold the sixth round of talks in Washington.

After late this week, U.S. inflation report in May will be the focus, with investors and Fed policymakers paying attention to the impact of trade restrictions on the economy.

Fed officials have said they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates and signs of economic recovery may consolidate their position.

According to data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG)Investors expect the Fed to cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points later this year, possibly as early as October, according to interest rate futures prices. Interest rate futures price the rate cut in 2025 by only 47 basis points.

International News

The California government sued Trump for transferring troops into Los Angeles

The California government filed a lawsuit with the court on the 9th, requesting the court to rule that the presidential memorandum issued by US President Trump on the 7th and the US Department of Defense's order to dispatch the California National Guard into the Los Angeles area based on this illegal, and requesting the court to revoke the relevant orders. According to a statement issued by the California Attorney General's Office, the case was prosecuted by Trump and Defense Secretary Hegsey, accusing them of overran the federal government's authority without the governor's request for federal government orders and violated the Tenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

Congressional Budget Office: The United States may exhaust measures to prevent debt from hitting the ceiling in mid-August

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said on Monday that the government may exhaust funds used to meet its repayment obligations between mid-August and the end of September. The latest estimates of the so-called X-day by the nonpartisan CBO were delayed by at least two weeks xm-forex.compared to its forecast in March. This could provide Congress with more time to agree on raising the federal debt ceiling, which is part of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts. The debt ceiling was re-instated at the beginning of this year, and the Ministry of Finance has been using special accounting methods since then to avoid breaking the ceiling while still being able to fulfill federal repayment obligations on time. Republicans have attached a measure to Trump's OneBigBeautiful Bill that will give the Treasury trillions of dollars in additional borrowing rights. The bill is currently under consideration in the Senate. “The CBO currently estimates that the government’s ability to borrow with extraordinary measures could be exhausted between mid-August and late September 2025 if the debt ceiling remains the same,” the agency wrote in its monthly budget report released on Monday.

Trump announced his newborn savings plan to save $1,000 per child

Trump officially announced the "Trump savings account" at a roundtable meeting with CEOs such as Dell, Goldman Sachs and Uber on Monday local time, and said it was one of the "most important" xm-forex.components of his second term. The "Trump Savings Account" is part of the "Big Beauty Act" passed by Trump in the House last month. The proposal requires the Treasury Department to provide a $1,000 investment account for children born in the United States between January 1, 2025 and January 1, 2029. Newborns will automatically join the program. Parents or other account custodians can deposit up to $5,000 in after-tax funds into these accounts each year, which will be invested in index funds that track U.S. stock markets. The beneficiary can allocate funds after the age of 18. CEOs of major xm-forex.companies are expected to announce on Monday, a White House official confirmedThey will jointly invest billions of dollars to set up a "Trump savings account" for the children of their employees.

Trump spoke with Netanyahu and revealed that Iran's negotiations are tough

U.S. President Donald Trump said he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday to discuss the ongoing Iran nuclear negotiations, suggesting he is worried that Tehran will ask too much in the negotiations. "They are good negotiators, but they are tough. Sometimes they can be too tough, and that's the problem," Trump said at a White House event. "So we are working to reach a deal to avoid destruction and death." Trump had promised to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, but Netanyahu was long skeptical of his diplomatic efforts to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Trump: Talks with Iran on Thursday

U.S. President Trump: The United States will hold talks with Iran on Thursday; Iran pursues nuclear enrichment, and we cannot allow this. They are making some unrealized demands; alternatives are very, very serious.

The Mexican President will attend the G7 Summit to discuss immigration issues

On June 9 local time, Mexican President Sinbaum confirmed that he would attend the upcoming G7 summit in Canada. Sinbaum also said that it is possible to hold a bilateral meeting with US President Trump during this period. Sinbaum said immigration will be one of the topics discussed during the meeting. Currently, the Mexican foreign minister is coordinating various meeting arrangements and pointed out that in addition to a possible meeting with President Trump, President Sinbaum will also hold bilateral talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney.

Domestic News

The vitality of the road transportation market has increased. China's highway logistics freight index was announced in May

The China Federation of Logistics and Procurement announced the China highway logistics freight index for May today (10th). With the support of multiple policies to stabilize the economy and expand domestic demand, the road transportation market continues to develop well. In May, China's highway logistics freight index was 105 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 2.02%. By vehicle model index, the vehicle index, mainly xm-forex.commodities and regional transportation, was 105.6 points, up 0.07% from the previous month and 2.34% from the same period last year. By region, inland areas dominated by domestic demand markets have a better recovery momentum.

Total business volume index hit a new high this year. China's e-commerce logistics index continued to rebound in May

The China Federation of Logistics and Procurement announced the China e-commerce logistics index for May today (10th). In May, China's e-commerce logistics index continued to rebound, and both supply and demand showed a steady upward trend. China's e-commerce logistics index in May was 111.6 points, up 1.1 points from the previous month. Among the sub-index, the total business volume index of e-commerce logistics hit a new high this year. The year-on-year growth rate of the total e-commerce logistics business volume exceeded 30% for the first time this year. By region, the total business volume index of all regions in the country has rebounded, and the western region has the largest month-on-month recovery. Rural e-commerce logistics business volume index is 129.6 points, up 0.6 points from the previous month, also hitting a new high this year.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: US oil hits its highest in two months, the market is waiting for the results of trade negotiations, and gold price increases are limited". It is carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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