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Non-farm fights against Fed rate cuts, China-US consultations + US CPI become key this week
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Non-farm fights against the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and this week's Sino-US consultation + US CPI becomes the key." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Macro
In the past week, gold prices have risen and fallen. Due to geopolitical concerns, spot gold rose nearly 3% last Monday, and then rose to $3,403.36 per ounce last Thursday due to poor U.S. economic data. However, the international trade situation is optimistic and the US non-farm data in May exceeded expectations. The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut have changed, causing gold prices to give up, down 1.22% last Friday and up about 0.65% on the weekly basis.
This week the market focused on trade negotiations between major powers and U.S. inflation data. On Monday, he paid attention to the US's one-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed in May. He Lifeng will hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the United States during his visit to the UK. The conflict caused by the search for illegal immigrants in Los Angeles, the United States will also affect market sentiment. From Wednesday to Friday, data such as the US CPI, PPI, weekly initial unemployment claims in May and the University of Michigan’s initial consumer confidence in June were released one after another. These data are related to the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and investors need to pay close attention to it in order to adjust their investment strategies.
Dollar Index
In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed an upward trend last Friday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 99.334 on the day, and fell to 98.628 at the lowest, and finally closed at 98.197. Looking back at the market performance last Friday, the price gained support and rose after a short-term fluctuation in the early trading period. As the author said, breaking through the four-hour resistance position, after the breakthrough, the price maintained the four-hour support and further rose and tested the daily resistance position as scheduled. At present, we need to focus on the gains and losses of the daily resistance position, and once we break through, we pay attention to further continuation in the future.
From a multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed in the 100.80 area of resistance,Then from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price resistance position is at 99.20 as time goes by. Currently, the price continues to be under pressure in the daily resistance linear line, so the band is still bearish for the time being, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stabilize the daily resistance. At the same time, the price in the four-hour period continued to soar after a rising breakthrough last Friday. At present, as time goes by, we need to pay attention to the support of the 98.80-90 range. We will wait until the price reaches this position and then look at further upwards. We will focus on the gains and losses of daily resistance in the future, and then pay attention to further continuation after the breakthrough.
The US dollar index has a long range of 98.80-90, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 99.20-99.70
Gold
In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed a downward trend last Friday. The price rose to the highest level of 3375.45 on the day, and fell to the lowest level of 3306.99 on the spot, closing at 3311.84. In response to the short-term correction of gold prices during the early trading session last Friday, then fell again under pressure before the European session, and maintained a surge and decline during the day. At the same time, the price accelerated downward after the US session, and the price fell below the daily watershed 3330 position. As the author said, the market eventually left a long upper lead on the weekly line, and the price fell below the daily watershed, so this week's focus is on further pressure and the gains and losses of the weekly watershed.
From multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price runs at the rhythm in May as the author said, and the final cross state. For June, the long-term watershed is at 2780. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3217 area. So from the perspective of the mid-term, it is still in the mid-term bull market, but we need to pay attention to the subsequent retracement and follow-up gains and losses. Once the price breaks the weekly support, it will be further under pressure. From the daily level, the price fell below the daily watershed 3330 position last Friday, so you need to pay attention to the pressure on this position in the future, and the price is short-term below this position. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, you need to pay attention to the 3345 regional resistance. This position is the key to the short-term trend. Follow-up attention to the daily resistance and four-hour resistance to see the pressure. The short-term price fell directly below the low point last Friday today, but we will not chase short at the moment. The price has been adjusted in the 3290 area, so we focus on the short-term adjustment before making layout.
Gold 3330 is short in the area, with a defense of US$10, and a target of 3290-3260-3217
European and the United States
European and the United States, prices in Europe and the United States were generally downward last Friday. Price on the dayThe lowest fell to 1.1371 position, rose to 1.1457 position, and closed at 1.1392 position. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets last Friday, the price was running upward in the short term during the early trading session, and then again under pressure and continued to break through the four-hour long and short watershed position under continuous weakness. Finally, the day was dark and closed. At present, we need to pay attention to the gains and losses of the daily watershed and trend line range in the future.
From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0850, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.1200 area, and from the perspective of the mid-line, the price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, as time goes by, we need to focus on the gains and losses of the 1.1370 area as time goes by. This position determines the key to the band trend. At the same time, the trend line support 1.1340 area below is also a support that needs to be paid attention to, so we focus on the gains and losses of the trend line support and the daily support range in the future. According to the four-hour level, we need to pay attention to the resistance in the range of 1.1420-30. After the price fell below last Friday, it became the current key resistance. Therefore, we should pay attention to the pressure in this area for the time being, and then pay attention to the gains and losses in the daily and trend line ranges in the future.
Europe and the United States have a short range of 1.1420-30, defense is 40 points, target 1.1370-1.1340
[Finance data and events that are focused today] Monday, June 9, 2025
① To be determined He Lifeng visited the UK and held a meeting of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism
② To be determined China's May trade account
③07:50 Japan's April trade account
④09:30 China's May CPI annual rate
⑤22:00 United States April wholesale sales monthly rate
⑥23:00 United States May New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation
Note: The above is only personal opinion and strategy, for reference and xm-forex.communication only, and does not give customers any investment advice. It has nothing to do with customers' investment, and is not used as a basis for ordering.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Non-farm fights against Fed interest rate cuts, this week's Sino-US negotiations + US CPI become the key", which was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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